Kevin Schneider

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CENTRAL U.S - A trough pushing in from the west has been responsible severe storms across the High Plains since this weekend. As of Monday, after Sunday's event, North Dakota has set a new record for the year with over 62 tornadoes! Over the next few days, we can see more rounds of severe weather, but hopefully away from North Dakota.Related: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/north-dakota-breaks-yearly-tornado-record">Dakota Tornado Record Falls Over the Weekend</a><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/web1-1758046360328.png">As storms fire along a cold front, being ushered through the plains by our trough, they'll quickly become severe in the early afternoon. The area of greatest concern is centered on North Platte, NE but could stretch as far north as the arrowhead of Minnesota. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary concerns, but a few tornadoes will be possible.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-16 094607-1758037770141.png">Over the next 5 days, multiple inches of rain will be possible over already saturated grounds. We have seen flooding across portions of the Northern Plains, and this threat will continue through this week. Today alone, some isolated locations will pick up 4-5 inches!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-16 095034-1758037858814.png">Always use caution with flood waters, as you never know how deep the water is. Turn Around, Don't Drown.

Adrian Hernandez

Storms Picking on the High Plains

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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While the Atlantic has been relatively quiet this season, the Eastern Pacific has been much more active, particularly in recent months. Early Saturday morning, Mario dissipated southwest of the Baja Peninsula, only to reemerge Sunday morning as a tropical storm. One other tropical wave has a low chance of developing over the next week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-15 184318-1757983404971.png"><h1>Monitoring Mario</h1>Mario formed on Friday only to dissipate on Saturday before reorganizing into a tropical storm again on Sunday! Since Mario's circulation remained intact, despite a lack of storm activity, the system did not get a new name. The latest update has Mario moving over cooler waters.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/web1-1758045785854.png">Mario is expected to drift WNW, eventually sending some of its moisture into Southern California by mid-to-late week, possibly leading to flooding. No direct impacts are expected from this system in the United States.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/web2-1758045849688.png">Forecast models project that some of Mario's moisture may reach Southern California later this week.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/09-15_rsw mario-1757983442769.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Eastern Pacific: Mario Returns, Sends Moisture to California

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We've got a low-pressure system out over the open waters, sitting on the warm Gulf Stream waters in the middle of September. Sounds like tropical mischief, right? While nothing is expected to gain tropical characteristics over the next day or so, we could still have mischief.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-15 091914-1757949628000.png">We spoke with Erik Heden, Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the NWS Newport-Morehead City Monday morning, about the wind, rain, and coastal flooding impacts of the latest low-pressure system to impact their region.<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/U5nP1TmiWMg" start="0"></iframe></div><h1>Forecast Rainfall</h1>Arguably, the biggest impact of this low spinning onshore will be the rainfall, especially where it falls, with many of the highest totals concentrated in North Carolina and Virginia.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/web1-1758046170285.png">An excessive rainfall outlook has been issued through Tuesday for rainfall totals upwards of 3-5" with localized maximums being even higher.<h1>Severe Outlook</h1>As some of these storms get rotated onshore, there is a possibility that one or two of them will start to spin. We see this often with lows that move from water to land. The added friction with the land can be all it takes. The Storm Prediction Center is watching an area from North Carolina to Virginia with a low-end tornado threat.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-16 095425-1758038081387.png"><h1>Forecast Winds</h1>It might not be "tropical," but the highest wind gusts could approach tropical-storm-force at times. It looks like it might not be the wind that causes a ton of problems, but the direction of the wind: coastal flooding and rip current risks could pose some dangerous problems at times. Coastal inundation is only expected to approach a foot or two in low-lying, susceptible areas of the coast but the rip current risk is high along the shorelines.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-16 095512-1758038124243.png">

Coastal Low Spins Trouble Onshore

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The dry time has been a little hard to enjoy the last week or two in South Florida. While this is the rainy season, and we're making up for a slow start to it, you can still roll your eyes at what the extended forecasts have looked like recently. In fact, some spots in South Florida have already had their wettest start to September, including Miami.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-15 183827-1757983193872.png">On the other end of the spectrum, some northern Florida spots have really missed out, making it the driest start to September in areas such as Gainesville and Tallahassee.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-15 183835-1757983218895.png">So why? Just because Florida likes to have the most fun? Well, actually, it's the front that's keeping the storms around. We could show a similar setup for most of the past week or two, with a slow-moving boundary in the area.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-14 171238-1757891565601.png">That, along with a TON of moisture to work with, is attempting to catch up some drought-stricken areas of the Sunshine State. The Drought Monitor updated on Thursday and had some pretty sizeable improvements in South Florida.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/2025-09-11 09-39-57-1757605257541.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>So while it might be easy to complain about beach plans constantly getting ruined, it has its benefits. Our biggest concern is the lightning threat associated with any Florida thunderstorm, but especially this time of year, with people outdoors. Anytime it rains this heavily, of course, the flash flooding threat will be there as well. Some areas could receive another 3-5 inches before the rain chances start to back off next week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-15 184044-1757983252166.png">

Florida Rainfall: Nuisance or Beneficial?

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Did you see them? Many might have had better things to do this weekend but if you were paying attention to Space Weather, you got a treat! NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center upped the expectation late last night, with some dazzling results.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1967422118729273403" src="https://x.com/NWSSWPC/status/1967422118729273403"></div>The problem for many in the plains was cloud-cover, with evening storms making it difficult to see the lights behind the lightning, but some were lucky to sneak between the clouds.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-15 092335-1757950156965.png">Granted, it might have been difficult to see with the naked eye. Many of the photos we've seen have mentioned a long exposure that was needed to see the fun. Either way, it's gorgeous if you can figure it out.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-15 092324-1757950271340.png">While it wasn't the most robust solar storm we've seen in the past 2 years, it was well worth it for some! We're not expecting another show, however.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-15 134825-1757965711698.png">

Jackie Brown

Northern Lights Close Out the Weekend For Many

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Grab the pumpkin spice and apple cider donuts, fall foliage is started to grace some areas across the United States, with more developing this week! The latest forecast from <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.explorefall.com/fall-foliage-map">Explore Fall</a> (top of page) shows developing color across the Rockies, Cascades, High Sierra, and the Upper-Midwest, near the Canadian border, over the next seven days (September 8th - 14th). Recent wildfire activity in the Sierra may make color there a bit more muted or highly variable between patches of trees. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-08 104753-1757350314424.png">Color has already been showing some for areas in the map above (yellow areas), mostly in the Rockies and Cascades. In fact, we've seen the Bigtooth Maples change quite a bit in the Wasatch Mountains near Salt Lake City!<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1964055938010067402" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1964055938010067402"></div>The most 30 days prior to the appearance of fall color are the most important for vibrancy during the peak season, but drought conditions can also lead to more muted color or variable conditions. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-08 105237-1757350392233.png">For great fall color, sunny days with cool, crisp nights are preferable. Though rain is welcome at times to keep the trees from drying out.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-08 105303-1757350398827.png">

Fall Color Starting to Show In Parts of the Lower 48

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A strong upper-level trough along with monsoonal moisture advecting northward continues to hone in on Western Colorado, SE Utah, and New Mexico. Both a flood threat and isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible. There are risks for excessive rainfall and flooding over the next few days. The risks are very isolated in the threat of flooding, but it is still something to pay attention to.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/09-14 rsc wpcs-1757878358375.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The Storm Prediction Center has the risk for strong storms stretching from North Dakota to Texas, but here we will discuss the threat for the southern Plains and Texas.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-14 133029-1757878277064.png">The latest model data suggest that the heaviest rain will be focused over parts of West Texas and the Central Plains as the disturbance keeps moving east. With upper-level support, some thunderstorms may become organized with a severe threat. Straight-line damaging winds would be the main hazard through the weekend but a few tornadoes are possible.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/09-14 rsc-1757878300010.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Stay with WeatherNation for the latest updates.

Alana Cameron

Severe Storms Look More Likely This Afternoon

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A cold front and strong daytime temperatures will lead to increasing storms today and some of those storms will likely be severe.  All modes of severe weather are in the forecast including the risk of isolated tornadoes.  Here is the very latest.
<h1>Severe Outlook</h1>
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From Texas to Minnesota and East into the Ohio Valley, severe storms are in the forecast today.  Horrible timing for Father's Day Weekend, so please be on alert if you are going to be outdoors today.
<h1>Severe Risks</h1>
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Isolated tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be possible in these areas.  The tornado risk will not be as widespread as the risk for hail and damaging winds, but if you are going to be in Wichita, St. Louis or Waterloo be ready for a quick tornado warning being issued later today.
<h1>Forecast</h1>
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The storms will be starting later this morning, but will last well through the day and even into early Sunday morning.  More updates are on the way!

Several States Under the Risk of Severe Storms Saturday

Severe Outlook

Severe Risks

Forecast

Storms Picking on the High Plains

CENTRAL U.S - A trough pushing in from the we

Eastern Pacific: Mario Returns, Sends Moisture to California

While the Atlantic has been relatively quiet

Coastal Low Spins Trouble Onshore

We've got a low-pressure system out over the

Florida Rainfall: Nuisance or Beneficial?

The dry time has been a little hard to enjoy

Northern Lights Close Out the Weekend For Many

Did you see them? Many might have had better

Fall Color Starting to Show In Parts of the Lower 48

Grab the pumpkin spice and apple cider donuts

Severe Storms Look More Likely This Afternoon

A strong upper-level trough along with monsoo