Adrian Hernandez

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Looking ahead, the forecast alludes to a strengthening offshore low in the northeast late in the week. A set-up we're all too familiar with. Models are showing some slight agreement on track, but shifting a tad into late week. The European model, taking this low a little further west.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/2026-09-21 10-33-27-1790001272308.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Regardless of it's track, coastal cities and states are slightly more at-risk for heavy rain. Thus, a 3-7 day hazards outlook has been issued for cities along the I-95 corridor from Massachusetts down to North Carolina!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-21 102847-1790000953175.png">With regards to it's strengthening, sea-surface temperatures that far north are still running on the warmer side.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-21 103639-1790001420895.png">With these kinds of setups, gusty winds are of utmost concern. We could see potential 40 mph gusts or higher along the coastline through the end of the week!<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/2026-09-21 10-37-34-1790001514194.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Rainfall totals are also expected to be higher along the coast as well.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-21 103932-1790001582471.png">There's still a ways to go in the forecast. Make sure to stay tuned to WeatherNation for the latest!

Coasta Low Expected to Impact Northeast Late Week

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Originally born in Spokane, Washington,  Jackie's Dad was in the Air Force which led her to a life of travel. She has lived in Wichita, Okinawa, Japan, Baltimore, New Jersey, Indiana and South Carolina.  After graduating from Kadena High School, in Okinawa Japan, she got a full basketball scholarship to Coppin State College. On the court she was a 4-year starter and reached over 1000 points in her basketball career. She was also named Athlete of the Year for the whole university in 2002. Off the court, she earned a degree in Broadcast Production/English.

After college, she landed a job as a radio personality. Jackie went on to have a successful career for 12 years working at KXLY broadcast center. While on the radio, she decided to change career. Jackie went back to school, graduating from the Mississippi State Meteorology Broadcast Program. From snow, to tornadoes, to hurricanes, she has had experience forecasting all these events.

Jackie Brown

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<h1>WHAT TO EXPECT</h1>Things will be active in the southeast on Monday and Tuesday as a surface cold front combines with instability to bring strong to severe storms for cities like Nashville, Atlanta, and Chattanooga. Damaging winds will be the main concern both days.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-21 062140-1789993310162.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-21 062218-1789993347890.png"><h1>TIMING</h1>The best chance of seeing the strongest storms will be in the afternoon with the help of diurnal heating! There will also be some pockets of heavy rain embedded in these storms as this low-pressure system and its associated cold front move through.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/2026-09-21 06-23-58-1789993462959.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Our model data shows most folks seeing around a half-inch of rain or less through Tuesday morning. Raleigh will potentially see some of the heaviest rainfall, with multiple inches possible.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-21 062520-1789993535035.png">For more info on your eastern regional forecast, tune into WeatherNation :10 past the hour.

Severe Storms For The Southeast To Start Your Week

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WHAT TO EXPECTRecord rainfall was set on Sunday in Charleston, WV, and South Bend, Indiana. Charleston saw 1.59" inches, beating out the old record of 1.25 inches, and South Bend saw 1.42 inches, beating out the old record of .99". More rainfall is on the way, increasing the risk of more flooding.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-21 055800-1789991891578.png"><h1>Storms &amp; Timing</h1>We will continue to see a frontal boundary linger, and one again more rain with heavy rain embedded in some of the storms that develop.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/2026-09-21 06-05-50-1789992413020.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>RAINFALL TOTALSThere will be local areas of heavy rain! Spots like West Virginia can see upwards of 4 to even 5 inches through Thursday morning.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-21 060850-1789992545581.png">For more info on your central regional forecast, tune into WeatherNation :30 past the hour every hour.

More Flooding Concerns Out East

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Kevin Schneider

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The Pacific Ocean has been incredibly active so far this hurricane season, and it shows no sign of slowing down. Meanwhile, the Atlantic remains mostly quiet, as record wind shear continues to tear apart tropical waves moving off Africa. While shear is high in the MDR, it hasn't been as robust farther north, where a new tropical storm developed early Sunday morning (above).<h1>Atlantic Basin</h1>Fay will slowly drift in the open Atlantic before turning back to the southwest and moving away from the Azores. This system won't directly affect landmasses but could send some waves to the Azores or Canary Islands in the coming days.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/tropical storm fayyyy -1789950549431.png">The end of September and start of October could get interesting in the Atlantic Basin, as more widespread lift is expected to develop. Wind shear is still at a record high, which should be able to crush any waves coming off of Africa. Tropical development will have better potential in the western Atlantic and Gulf, where shear is much lower.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-17 091009-1789657855421.png">Looking at Fay's intensity track, we could potentially have the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season in our midst. This would make it the latest one we've seen since 1966<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-21 055633-1789991818537.png"><h1>Eastern &amp; Central Pacific Basins</h1>Several systems are being monitored in the Pacific, with some impacts to land possible this week. Odalys formed Sunday morning, too, and we now have tropical depression 17 to the south of Mexico, and another area behind that with a 20 % chance of formation. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-21 055444-1789991704323.png">The question is: what do these systems do to (a) each other and (b) land? When two systems develop this close to each other, there will be some interaction, where both spin around an imaginary point in the Pacific Ocean. But after that interaction, what else will be in place? A few things, actually. All of these factors lead to sizable spread in the outcomes, from landfall in western Mexico to a hurricane climbing northward.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-20 070952-1789909809568.png"><h1>El Niño Fueling Pacific Activity</h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-20 071102-1789909874054.png">The surge in tropical activity comes as El Niño continues to strengthen across the equatorial Pacific. El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures across portions of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Those unusually warm waters can influence weather patterns around the globe while also creating an environment that can favor tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-16 073748-1789565873978.png">This year’s El Nino has already strengthened considerably, and forecasts indicate it could become exceptionally strong later this year.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-12 063433-1789216512410.png">

Tropics: Watching Multiple Systems

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Severe storms and heavy rain have been targeting the Rockies since Thursday, when large hail began battering portions of Utah and Idaho. Two tornadoes were even captured on video in Utah on Friday, including the mountainside twister you see below!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/TORNADOINFRUITHEIGHTSUT-ezgif.com-video-to-gif-converter-1789822080945.gif"><h1></h1><h1>Severe Storms &amp; Timing</h1>Overnight, we have a severe threat in place for portions of CO, KS and OK. Storms fired up today, bringing damaging winds and hail. Any storms that stick around into the overnight hours can see damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado or two will be possible.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/sssa-1789954285946.png">A few storms will linger in the overnight hours, with some heavy rain possible embedded in the storms.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/overnightss-1789954388198.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Storms Continue to Pummel the Rockies

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It's been a long, hot summer. That might be an understatement, actually, as<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/national-climate-202608"> the U.S. experienced it's hottest summer on record</a>! Areas like the Southwest were especially warm, but even through September the South and Southeast have been scorching! Just in time for fall, a cold front will be cutting across the country to start the week, dropping highs from the 90s to the 60s in some areas! While it won't be completely dry behind the front, many people will feel a significant cool down.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-20 073324-1789911238058.png">Unfortunately, for folks along the Gulf Coast and down into Florida, this front won't be strong enough to reach that far south, but for areas like Oklahoma, Kentucky, and Virginia, this will usher in a major change!Highs will drop 20-30 degrees in many areas from Sunday through Tuesday, including Oklahoma City and Washington D.C.!<h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-20 073414-1789911266216.png">Autumnal Equinox</h1>Fall begins on Tuesday, at 8:04 pm ET, which is the exact time the suns rays cross over the equator the southern hemisphere begins to lean more toward the sun.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-19 093856-1789832359623.png">Both the vernal and autumnal equinox (Latin for equal night) marks the point of the year when the earth gets hit equally by the sun in both hemispheres. This is different from the winter and summer solstice, when the hemispheres reach their point of maximum inclination toward the sun.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-19 093913-1789832367580.png">

Finally Cooling Down; Cold Front Arrives Just in Time for Fall

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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The second largest reservoir in the United States now sits at its lowest level on record, following a dismal year for snowfall in the Central Rockies. Images released by NASA (top of page) show the contrast with 2017, which saw heavy snow during the preceding winter and thus, plentiful runoff during the spring and summer. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-18 131721-1789759308683.png">Downstream, Lake Mead and the Parker Dam are both at their lowest levels at to-date over the past 30 years. Both are also fed by the struggling Colorado River. River managers have had to take action to keep water levels above the threshold necessary to generate power, including releasing extra water from upstream basins and cancelling timed releases set to help native species survive on the river.<h1>Snowpack Determines River Levels</h1>While the Southwest Monsoon has had a solid season in 2026, those hit or miss thunderstorms are only a drop in the bucket compared to the water supplied to the Colorado River from melting snow. The river is fed by numerous mountain ranges in the Central and Southern Rockies, though most of the water comes from the mountains west of the continental divide in Colorado.<h2><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-18 131656-1789760441419.png"></h2>Snowpack in Colorado got a late surge in the Spring but was still near record lows, especially in Southwestern Colorado. Many ski resorts were forced to shut down a week to a month ahead of normal. The melt-off of the snowpack was the second earliest on record. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-18 134932-1789760993718.png">The deficit of precipitation is tremendous in many areas, but western Colorado stands out with the bright red colors, indicating at least 2 feet of water missing over the last year. Other mountain ranges that send runoff into the Colorado are also lagging well behind, with deficits of 1-2 feet widespread across the west. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-18 131534-1789761117664.png"><h1>Winter Outlook</h1>The surging El Niño could offer some help in the form of heavy precipitation. Wetter than average conditions are favored across much of the west, with near normal precipitation favored for much of the Upper Colorado River Basin. Unfortunately after many years of below average precipitation, it would likely take many successive seasons to help the river return to normal. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-18 135826-1789761517713.png">

Lake Powell Drops to Record Low

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As we embark upon the height of severe weather season, you might notice meteorologists talking about severe weather outlooks.

But often times it can be confusing.

To help you better understand severe-weather threats this season, here is a quick refresher on the 6-part scale the Storm Prediction Center uses to denote the probability of severe weather in a given area.

Before we begin, let's clarify what qualifies as a severe thunderstorm.

Severe Thunderstorm Criteria

<img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-89400" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/03/severe-thinderstorm-criteria-420x235.png" alt="" width="420" height="235" />

General Thunderstorms

<img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-89395" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/03/General-420x235.png" alt="" width="420" height="235" />

Marginal Risk (1)

<img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-89397" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/03/marginal-420x235.png" alt="" width="420" height="235" />

Slight Risk (2)

<img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-89399" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/03/slight-420x235.png" alt="" width="420" height="235" />

Enhanced Risk (3)

<img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-89394" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/03/enhanced-420x235.png" alt="" width="420" height="235" />

Moderate Risk (4)

<img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-89398" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/03/moderate-420x235.png" alt="" width="420" height="235" />

High Risk (5)

<img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-89396" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/03/high-420x235.png" alt="" width="420" height="235" />

What it Looks Like

So next time you find yourself face to face with a map like this:

<img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-89401" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/03/outlook-420x235.png" alt="" width="420" height="235" />

Remember, each different color means something very different. And with severe weather in the forecast you should have a plan in place so you and your family can stay safe in the threat of danger.

<a href="https://www.ready.gov/severe-weather">https://www.ready.gov/severe-weather</a>

The link above is a great resource to help you stay ahead of the storm this severe weather season.

For WeatherNation — Meteorologist Jeremy LaGoo

&nbsp;

What a Severe Weather Outlook Means

Coasta Low Expected to Impact Northeast Late Week

Looking ahead, the forecast alludes to a stre

Severe Storms For The Southeast To Start Your Week

WHAT TO EXPECTThings will be active in the so

More Flooding Concerns Out East

WHAT TO EXPECTRecord rainfall was set on Sund

Tropics: Watching Multiple Systems

The Pacific Ocean has been incredibly active

Storms Continue to Pummel the Rockies

Severe storms and heavy rain have been target

Finally Cooling Down; Cold Front Arrives Just in Time for Fall

It's been a long, hot summer. That might be a

Lake Powell Drops to Record Low

The second largest reservoir in the United St