An Enhanced Risk of Severe Storms on Back-to-Back Days

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12 Jun 2024 5:25 PM

There is a "significant" severe weather threat ahead for the High Plains on Wednesday. This elevated threat will be from northern Wisconsin, central and southern Minnesota to eastern South Dakota. All modes of severe weather are possible as a cold front moves through the region, including 2" diameter hail produced by supercell thunderstorms. These supercells contain strong updrafts that loft hail, allowing stones to grow, but also can rotate, increasing the tornado threat over the same areas on Wednesday.

A storm system moves out of the Northwest and cruises through the Dakotas midday prompting a few storms. Additional development is expected late afternoon and evening as storms move into a humid and hot environment over Minnesota and Iowa. At the same time, our warm front will be responsible for producing a few stronger storms through northern MN and the U.P. of Michigan on Wednesday afternoon. Individual supercells cluster into a line pushing through Wisconsin and northern Illinois that falls apart overnight.

Storms continue into Thursday along our frontal boundary but not until late in the day. Another storm outlook stretches from central Michigan through Kansas including Chicago,, Kansas City, Omaha and St. Louis. Storms develop late in the day over northern Missouri, Kansas and Illinois with damaging winds and large hail likely. An embedded tornado cannot be ruled out along I-70 either.

In addition to storms, the frontal boundary will bring a cool down to the High Plains, trending our temperatures back toward average. Highs will be warmest on Wednesday when southerly flow increases humidity and temperatures with highs running about 10° above average. Temperatures cool by about 5° on Thursday but still will run above average for many. Southern cities including Lincoln and Des Moines will struggle to see too much of a cool-down with highs pushing 100°! We expect to see relief by Friday.

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