Slight Lowering in Updated Hurricane Season Forecast from Colorado State
Today (June 1st) is the beginning of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season and meteorologists at Colorado State University (CSU) have some good news with their updated forecast. They have slightly lowered their total storm numbers from the previous forecast issued earlier in April.
CSU has updated its seasonal forecast and now calls for a near average season with 14 named storms (including Alberto), six #hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. Primary reason for reduction is anomalous cooling in tropical Atlantic. @ColoradoStateU https://t.co/8JIoU5fzBC pic.twitter.com/uQrn6h6iAA
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) May 31, 2018
The forecast now calls for 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes reaching Category 3 strength or higher. An average year is 12 names storms, 6.5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. The forecast count includes Subtropical Storm Alberto, which formed last week and affected the Gulf of Mexico coastline.
The report states, “We have decreased our forecast and now believe that 2018 will have approximately average activity. While we still do not anticipate a significant El Niño during the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, most of the North Atlantic has continued to anomalously cool over the past two months. The eastern and central tropical Atlantic is cooler than normal at present. We anticipate a near-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”
Meteorologists at CSU have been issuing seasonal hurricane forecasts for more than 30 years. The late Dr. William Gray issued the first forecast in 1984. From CSU, “We issue these forecasts to satisfy the curiosity of the general public and to bring attention to the hurricane problem. There is a general interest in knowing what the odds are for an active or inactive season.”
As a reminder, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.
For WeatherNation: Meteorologist Mace Michaels