Caitlin Connell

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The frontal system responsible for storms on Saturday continues on Father's Day Sunday in the Upper Midwest. Another slight risk (level 2 out of 5) of severe weather is in effect for portions of the Interstate 90 corridor from Rapid City, SD to the Twin Cities, MN. The biggest potential will be for large hail and damaging wind gusts. Since we're in the summer travel season, contact anyone that you know who's traveling this part of the country.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/06/spc day 1-1718556515377.jpg">Despite some storms and showers rocking and rolling for the morning on Sunday, we have another chance for storms in the evening hours. This particular set-up looks to be favoring more of an overnight severe threat. Meaning that multiple ways to get weather alerts will be a must. Monday morning and afternoon brings more isolated and scattered storm chances.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/06/forecast-1718559168143.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Monday has a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) in similar areas that have to deal with storm likelihood on Sunday. The outlook follows the I-29 stretch from the Canadian border to Sioux City, IA. It also reaches into portions of Highway 2 in northern Nebraska. All forms of severe weather will be possible.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/06/spc day 2-1718555629633.jpg">One aspect of the forecast that will play a huge part is the amount of rainfall we can see. Some places in South Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin pose the chance of seeing over 5" of rainfall by Tuesday morning. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/06/forecast accumulation-1718555805266.jpg">With over 5" of rain in the forecast, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) issued a moderate risk (level 3 out of 4) on Monday. This indicates that multiple instances of flash flooding could be likely, and a few of them may be significant.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/06/forecast-1718555891168.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Father's Day Storm Chances In The Plains

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Summer of 1993, New England Dragway. That's when and where Steve knew he wanted to become a meteorologist. More than 20 years later he is extremely fortunate and blessed to be able to live his childhood dream. As a lover of math and science, Steve had a consistent interest in weather in elementary, middle, and high school before discovering you can major in meteorology. He attended Lyndon State College in Vermont where he received a bachelor's in meteorology-broadcasting and associate's in television news. He has worked as a meteorologist and reporter in Winchester, VA, Burlington, VT, and most recently in West Palm Beach, FL. He's recognized by the American Meteorological Society with the Certification of Broadcast Meteorologists.

Steven Glazier

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Extreme heat is forecast for the Midwest and Northeast this week. The "HeatRisk" tool has outlined much of the region with the potential of extreme heat impacts.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/06/Tuesday HeatRisk-1718537444216.jpg">The<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/noaa-debuts-heatrisk-tool-nationwide"> "HeatRisk" tool by NOAA </a>considers how much above average temperatures are and the time of year to create the risk and aims to give a different way to view heat impacts. An extreme risk is the highest level on the scale and it is recommended you do not go outside, and instead stay in cooler conditions, such as in air conditioning. Power outages may be possible due to the stress on the power grid in the heat.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/06/Screenshot 2024-06-15 154009-1718487639670.png">Temperatures soar into the 90s as heat index values crest closer to 110° due to high humidity starting today and continuing for much of the upcoming week. Stay indoors, check on your pets and animals that may be outside, and bring them inside if you can in these intense temperatures. This will be record-setting heat through the middle of next week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/06/Sunday High vs HI-1718537591213.jpg">The ridge of high pressure sitting over the central U.S. will also bring major impacts to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through the middle of this week with highs soaring into the 90s and close to 100° for many cities along the eastern seaboard. Records are in jeopardy for much of the eastern half of the U.S. in the week ahead!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/06/Screenshot 2024-06-16 103247-1718555582729.png">Hazardous heat continues in the Midwest through the Northeast and Deep South all of this week. The extended forecast shows confidence in above-average temperatures sticking around, especially in the Great Lakes region.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/06/cpc temp outlook-1718537724976.jpg">We know it is summer time and we expect hot temps, but remember to take care and check on neighbors in the heat, don't over-exert yourself, and never leave children or <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/states-with-laws-to-protect-pets-in-hot-cars">pets in hot cars</a>. Temperatures will be 10-20° above normal for this time of year and our bodies are not accustomed to it yet.

Alana Cameron

"Extreme Heat" for the Midwest, Northeast Ramps Up This Week

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An area of low-pressure could develop into a tropical depression this week, according to the National Hurricane Center. There is a MEDIUM chance for growth over the next several days but regardless of if this storm system reaches tropical criteria, heavy rain will be the primary threat across the western Gulf.An area of low pressure around the Yucatan Peninsula will provide a southeasterly flow, streaming rich, tropical air into Texas, aiding in thunderstorm development. The National Hurricane Center states, "Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by midweek while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward."<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/06/tropical moistre-1718536525168.jpg">As mentioned above, our primary threat right now is heavy rain, upwards of 4-8" for many cities along and south of Interstate 10! Despite how soggy this region of Texas and Louisiana was in May, the last 3 weeks have dried out soils, meaning new rainfall increases the potential for flash flooding.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/06/Screenshot 2024-06-16 100644-1718554010962.png">Showers and storms will likely start later this evening and become much more widespread early this week, as southeast flow pumps moisture onshore. By the time our area of low pressure arrives on Tuesday and Wednesday, the grounds will have already been inundated with heavy rainfall, elevating the flash flood threat. Rainfall continues into Thursday. Storms aren't expected to be severe in terms of hail and damaging wind gusts (from straight-line winds) but as our low strengths, gusty winds are possible and an isolated waterspout can't be ruled out.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/06/3-1718486472233.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The flooding potential will increase each day through Wednesday. As this flood hazard increases, the area of potential impact will shift westward toward south Texas.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/06/2024-06-16 05-17-11-1718536659596.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>As a reminder, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/noaa-releases-forecast-for-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season">2024 is expected to be above average for tropical activity</a> due to a La Nina forming during the peak of hurricane season in September. Though development chances on this area in the western Gulf are medium, they are non-zero and tropical activity can occur in early June. It only takes one storm to impact you and the time to prepare is before the storm hits!

Tropical Watch: Potential Area of Development in the Western Gulf

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Kevin Schneider

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A wildfire sprung up on the West Coast on Saturday. The Post Fire's cause is under investigation, but has already burned over 10,000 acres in its short existence.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/06/post fire-1718555377175.png">Videos surfacing out of the Golden State show all of the flames charing portions of Los Angeles County on Saturday.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1802321660596367823" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1802321660596367823"></div>Evacuation Orders are in place west of Interstate 5 between Pyramid Lake and Gorman. Areas south of Pyramid Lake between Old Ridge Route and the LA County line, including Paradise Ranch Estates have been told to be prepared to leave. This is a video of crews surveying from a helicopter looking for hotspots<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/06/VO_061524_RSW_GORMAN, CA_AWESOME AERIAL VIEW OF THE POST FIRE_FIRIS_SF_MR_E061624-1718543095904.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Today's fire weather outlook includes Las Vegas and over to Flagstaff - be mindful of ANYTHING that could spark a wildfire throughout the day as winds kick up again.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/06/Fire weather outlook-1718543046022.png">

Post Fire Scorches Over 10,000 Acres In California

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Time to put snow tires back on in Montana? Not quite, but a late-season winter storm could bring a wallop of snow to the Northern Rockies early this week as a cold, upper-level low moves over the region from Canada. A winter storm watch has been issued from the Canadian border into Idaho for heavy snow starting Sunday night.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/06/Screenshot 2024-06-14 072125-1718371418459.png">This low will bring clashing temperatures to the Plains by Monday, with highs in the 50s in Montana and 90s in the Midwest.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/06/high temps-1718556080320.jpg">That clash in temperatures will help to support a severe weather chance in the upper Midwest. While the snow is falling in the Rockies, severe storms will be <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/father's-day-storm-chances-in-the-plains">possible in the Upper Midwest</a>. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/06/Winter alerts vs SPC Day 2-1718538809789.jpg">Light snow is expected at times in the Cascades this weekend, but the heaviest snow is expected late Monday into early Tuesday, before things clear toward midweek.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/06/forecast-1718556329981.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>This forecast model shows the potential for over a foot of snow, though the definition of these large scale models doesn't depict the big changes over a few miles due to mountain ranges. Some may see over a foot of snow, but it's likely to be quite high on the peaks/ridges.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/06/forecast accumulation-1718556130419.jpg">

Heavy Late Season Snow Possible in the Northern Rockies

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<div>Lucy is originally from the Boston area but has spent the last four years forecasting and living in Colorado! She stayed in the northeast for her education, graduating Summa Cum Laude from SUNY Oswego with a B.S. in Meteorology. Just a few days after graduation, she made the cross country move to Colorado Springs, CO to begin her career at KKTV, the CBS affiliate. Lucy has covered historic blizzards, tornadoes, windstorms, the largest wildfires in Colorado state history and dust storms ... they truly "get it all" in Colorado! Lucy is excited to forecast on a national level and continue her passion of explaining the science behind the weather!</div>
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Lucy Bergemann

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Atlantic Hurricane season started June 1 and runs through November. NOAA has released its forecast for the tropical season. The agency is calling for 17-25 named storms... and 8-13 hurricanes, of which 4-7 are forecast to be major hurricane strength, CAT 3 or stronger with sustained winds of 111 mph or stronger.<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/PXTsSghwXAU" start="0"></iframe></div>This is the highest forecast NOAA has ever issued in the initial outlook in May.&nbsp;There is an 85% chance of an above-average season in 2024. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy index, or ACE for short, is a forecasting metric that predicts strength and duration of wind speed; this year it is forecast to be the second highest ever on record.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/05/NOAA-1716473710687.jpg">This year is expected to be above average thanks to warm sea surface temperatures and <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/la-nina-likely-to-return-for-hurricane-season">La Niña conditions returning just in time for the peak of Hurricane season</a>. There is over a 70% chance of La Niña formation during August - October. La Niña is categorized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, typically resulting in less wind shear over the Atlantic and Caribbean oceans. Less wind shear means hurricanes can thrive, rather than be torn apart by strong upper-level winds. In the Eastern Pacific, a La Niña Pattern typically spells below-average activity,<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-below-normal-2024-central-pacific-hurricane-season"> which is what NOAA is predicting in 2024.</a><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/05/La nina-1716471321368.jpg">The other factors are warmer than average sea surface temperatures and an active West African Monsoon. Sea surface temperatures are so warm in the tropical Atlantic that we are about two months ahead of schedule for warmth.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/05/factors-1716470995099.jpg">The forecast is aligned with that of <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/atlantic-hurricane-season-2024-expected-to-be-well-above-average">Colorado State University</a> which also calls for a well above average season.&nbsp;The official list only has 21 names and the higher end of NOAA's forecast calls for up to 25 storms. If forecasts pan out, there is an alternate list to supplement. The last time additional names were needed was during the record-setting 2020 season when La Niña conditions were also present.&nbsp;Below is the list of hurricane names we will go through first before we head into the alternative names list.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/05/names-1716471297613.jpg">As a reminder, these forecasts only account for the total number of storms, NOT potential paths or U.S. impacts. It only takes one storm to impact you and the time to prepare is ahead of the storm.&nbsp;For more on storm preparation, tropical conditions and alerts, stay with WeatherNation throughout the hurricane season.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Hurricane Season 2024 Underway: Above Average Activity Expected

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Karissa is the Director of On-Air Operations at WeatherNation. Karissa grew up loving math and science, but really fell in love with Meteorology while attending the College of DuPage in Glen Ellyn, Illinois. After two summers of storm chasing in the central plains, she knew that it was the career path for her. Standing in front of a thunderstorm and feeling the cool outflow knock her over was an experience she will never forget. After two years at COD, she transferred to Metropolitan State University of Denver. Karissa graduated Magna Cum Laude with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology. Her high school and college speech and meteorology professors were extremely supportive and pushed her to succeed. Before joining the WeatherNation team, she previously worked as the Morning Meteorologist at KCAU-TV in Sioux City, Iowa and at WMBD-TV in Peoria, IL. She recently was part of a National Edward R. Murrow award winning team for breaking news for their coverage of the EF-4 tornado in Washington, Illinois. In her free time, Karissa enjoys cooking and trying new foods. She is a self proclaimed 'TV Junkie' who can get into just about any show. She is a die hard Chicago sports fan who loves attending professional sporting events.

Karissa Klos

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El Niño is over. The powerful El Niño/Southern Oscillation (or ENSO) phase that impacted US Weather conditions through the winter and spring has now transitioned. On Thursday June 13, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reported that we have now entered into ENSO Neutral conditions.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1801238092617335117" src="https://x.com/NWSCPC/status/1801238092617335117"></div>The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an oscillating climate pattern involving changes in the temperature of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over a large swath of the tropical Pacific Ocean can warm or cool anywhere from 1°C to 3°C from normal. El Niño marks above-average sea surface temperatures, while La Niña marks below-average water temperatures. ENSO Neutral means that SSTs are near normal., meaning we are neither in an El Niño or La Niña phase.ENSO Neutral conditions tend to bring the Polar Jet stream farther south, bringing in cooler air for the northern tier of the country. The southern half of the country generally sees warmer than average temperatures, with a wetter pattern in the southeast. This is most amplified during the fall months, but some influences can be felt into the summer too. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/06/Screenshot20240613101308png-1718295194050.png">The forecast for ENSO conditions could have major implications going into the heart of hurricane season. NOAA anticipates the development of La Niña conditions this summer, citing <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml">"the persistent below-average subsurface ocean temperatures and changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation."</a>RELATED ARTICLE: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/noaa-releases-forecast-for-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season">NOAA Predicts Above Average 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season</a>Before 2023, La Niña conditions contributed to three years of overly active hurricane seasons; starting with the record breaking 2020 Atlantic season. La Niña conditions lead to less wind shear in the Atlantic, allowing tropical systems to develop and strengthen. Into the heart of hurricane season, La Niña is forecast to be in full swing. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/06/Screenshot 2024-06-13 102809-1718296107099.png">It will likely continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2024-25. Signals/impacts from ENSO are usually more prominent during winter with cooler than average conditions in the northern tier of the country while it is warmer and drier for the southern part of the continental U.S.. A wetter pattern is more likely for the PNW and Midwest. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/06/la nina-1718316432637.jpg">

El Niño Over, La Niña On Track For Fall

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Meteorologist Jesse Kelley is excited to join the talented staff at Weather Nation. Jesse spent most of his childhood in Birmingham, Alabama. The state of Alabama is prone to seeing various types of weather from severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, hurricanes, and winter weather. For college, Jesse attended the University of South Alabama where he received his degree in Broadcast Meteorology along with minors in Math and Geography. From Alabama, Jesse started his broadcast television working three years at KAVU-TV in Victoria. Recently, he finished a stint in Shreveport, LA. Jesse and his wife are looking forward to making the Rocky Mountains and Colorado home. If you would like to follow me, you can follow me on Twitter @JesseKelleywx and on Facebook at Meteorologist Jesse Kelley.

Jesse Kelley

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Early morning storms charged through Iowa bringing damaging winds and tornado warnings on Friday. There is a SLIGHT risk (level 2 out of 5), mainly for damaging winds, but tornado development is possible with initial cells.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/05/1-1716607269266.png">The cold front continues to push eastward for the rest of the night! Some storms should begin to weaken now that we are losing the daytime heating! Any remaining isolated cell could pose a gusty wind and hail threat!<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/05/Baron 2-1716607473765.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>RELATED ARTICLE: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/Tornado%20Threat%20Includes%20Dallas,%20OKC%20Today#google_vignette">Severe Threat Slices the South</a>Storms continue overnight into Ohio, Kentucky and Tennessee, before the line quickly dies down into Saturday morning.

Friday Night Could Feature Severe Storms in the Midwest

Father's Day Storm Chances In The Plains

The frontal system responsible for storms on

"Extreme Heat" for the Midwest, Northeast Ramps Up This Week

Extreme heat is forecast for the Midwest and

Tropical Watch: Potential Area of Development in the Western Gulf

An area of low-pressure could develop into a

Post Fire Scorches Over 10,000 Acres In California

A wildfire sprung up on the West Coast on Sat

Heavy Late Season Snow Possible in the Northern Rockies

Time to put snow tires back on in Montana? No

Hurricane Season 2024 Underway: Above Average Activity Expected

Atlantic Hurricane season started June 1 and

El Niño Over, La Niña On Track For Fall

El Niño is over. The powerful El Niño/Souther