We've been locked in a relatively quiet stretch of late, when talking about severe storms. In fact, October is on a run of 11 straight days with only a MARGINAL or general thunderstorm risk. The nation hasn't seen this quite of a stretch since the end of February! This remarkably quiet jog will come to and end likely this weekend.

The same system that brought California some early season snow and heavy rain will move thorugh the Rockies. By this weekend, the stage will be set for storms that could bring damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes.

SETUP

A strong cold front will drop through the southern plains Friday into Saturday. Ahead of it, warm temperatures - some that might threaten records - will greet it. The clash between the two air masses will help drive thunderstorms well up in the atmosphere.

That simple difference between hot and cold is enough to bet on, so much so that the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted an area along the Mid-Mississippi River Valley for severe storms. However, this far in advance of a system, there is plenty to still iron out.

Are there going to be storms? Likely. How strong to potentially severe will they be? That's up in the air. It's still a little too early to tell which fine-scale ingredients will be in play.

TIMING

During secondary severe season, you don't always know what you're going to get as far as timing. This event appears to be favoring the afternoon and evening hours on Saturday. However, there's plenty of time for that to change between now and then.

THREATS

It's a little early to rule many specific threats. It does look like areas that have been abnormally dry recently could get a strong dousing of water, which could be tough to handle. Be sure to keep up with the forecast for the rest of the week, as we get a better sense of what will unfold this weekend.