Kevin Schneider

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A slow-moving frontal boundary that brought numerous days of severe weather to the Plains, has hit a snag down south. This front has stalled out, which will provide the focus for storm chances over the next few days. With multiple rounds of storms on the way, flooding is a growing concern. Some areas of Texas have already seen 3-4 inches of rain!<h1>FORECAST</h1>Going forward, the heaviest of the rainfall will target the lower Mississippi River Valley, into the Midwest. Some areas will pick up 3-5 more inches with some localized areas surpassing that easily. If you live in a flood-prone area of the southern plains into the Ohio River Valley, be prepared to seek higher ground.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/1-1779416468705.png">With rounds of heavy rain expected over the next several days, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has issued Marginal to Slight chances for Excessive Rainfall into the weekend.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/1-1779416528976.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/2-1779416534398.png">You can see that some areas, especially the Texas Gulf Coast, will have multiple days in a row of excessive rain. Flooding is likely with this forecast, and flood emergencies can't be ruled out for travelers. Use caution if you are travelling in these hard-hit areas today.A good reminder to avoid driving through flooded roadways at all costs. You never know what's under that water.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/Screenshot 2026-05-19 053417-1779190502548.png">

Jesse Kelley

Repeated Rain Raises the Flood Threat Down South

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We've had quite the active stretch to start this workweek off. For the breakdown of what went on, give this a read:<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/severe-storms-leave-trail-of-destruction-on-the-plains">https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/severe-storms-leave-trail-of-destruction-on-the-plains</a><h1>Overnight Rockies</h1>An upper level low and cold front has prompted a few strong and severe storms across the Eastern Plains of Colorado. For the overnight, a few isolated storms remain that develop into isolated tornadoes and bring a gusty wind and large hail threat. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/1-1779415999448.png"><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/BARON 5-1779416081952.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>TEXAS</h1>The tail end of the front is dragging into the Lone Star State as well. That will provide enough of a focus for more storms, with wind and hail being the largest concern. Storms should continue to diminish into the overnight hours. However, more storms are looking likely across the Red River Valley on Friday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/1-1779416241133.png"><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/BARON 5-1779416321411.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Intense downpours could lead to some localized flooding, especially across the Southern Plains and Texas. Some areas could pick up 2-3 inches of rain as storms push through.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/1-1779416349867.png">

Severe Storms Stick Around Thursday

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Taban Sharifi grew up in Southern California between Los Angeles and San Diego. She is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) with the American Meteorological Society (AMS). She has a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Environmental Sciences with a minor in Environmental Systems and Society from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Go Bruins! While in school, Taban was a meteorology intern with NBC LA. There she helped forecast daily weather for the greater Los Angeles region and created a playbook to deploy weather sensors for NBC owned-and-operated stations across the country. Her first on-air job took her to San Angelo, Texas, where she was a morning meteorologist and co-anchor. Working in West Texas gave her knowledge and experience covering severe storms. From there, she moved to Palm Springs, California. People think forecasting in California is sunshine all the time, but with temperatures in the 120’s, wildfires, damaging winds, floodings, and earthquakes, the forecasting kept her very busy! She also worked there as a general assignment reporter and told community stories. Taban is excited for the challenge and opportunity to forecast nationally with WeatherNation. She also looks forward to exploring all that Colorado has to offer!

Taban Sharifi

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SIMI VALLEY, CA - On Monday, May 18th in Ventura County, California, a new wildfire formed named the Sandy Fire. It has since burned over 2100 acres and grew quickly, threatening life and property. This prompted evacuation orders and warnings to the area.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/1-1779416671274.png">Footage in the region shows the extent of the smoke and poor air quality.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2056736634754809931" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2056736634754809931"></div>Additional fires have since quickly formed in southern California, despite no red flag warnings or fire weather outlook. The winds managed to be strong enough for fires to quickly get out of control in the areas. The Bain Fire in Riverside started to burn heavy fuels at a moderate rate before quickly burning up to almost 1000 acres. This prompted evacuation orders and warnings for many Riverside Zones.The Bain Fire is burning in Riverside County, CA. This fire began on Tuesday, May 19, and quickly spread to over 1,400 acres. The cause of the fire is still under investigation.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/1-1779416718052.png">Another fire we are watching is one that possibly started from a shipwrecked sailor off the coast of California. This is the Santa Rosa Island Fire which is over 16,000 acres. Not many people reside on this island but there are species on the island that are threatened by the fire.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/Screenshot 2026-03-29 061107-1779367133110.png">Due to the extent of several wildfires burning in southern California, air quality has worsened in the area, and air quality alerts have been issued for parts of the Greater Los Angeles area.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/1-1779416760992.png">For more on these, be sure to join us at WeatherNation at :50 past the hour.

CALIFORNIA: Wildfires Prompt Evacuations

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Karissa is the Director of On-Air Operations at WeatherNation. Karissa grew up loving math and science, but really fell in love with Meteorology while attending the College of DuPage in Glen Ellyn, Illinois. After two summers of storm chasing in the central plains, she knew that it was the career path for her. Standing in front of a thunderstorm and feeling the cool outflow knock her over was an experience she will never forget. After two years at COD, she transferred to Metropolitan State University of Denver. Karissa graduated Magna Cum Laude with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology. Her high school and college speech and meteorology professors were extremely supportive and pushed her to succeed. Before joining the WeatherNation team, she previously worked as the Morning Meteorologist at KCAU-TV in Sioux City, Iowa and at WMBD-TV in Peoria, IL. She recently was part of a National Edward R. Murrow award winning team for breaking news for their coverage of the EF-4 tornado in Washington, Illinois. In her free time, Karissa enjoys cooking and trying new foods. She is a self proclaimed 'TV Junkie' who can get into just about any show. She is a die hard Chicago sports fan who loves attending professional sporting events.

Karissa Klos

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NOAA has released <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-below-normal-2026-atlantic-hurricane-season">their predictions for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season</a>. They are calling for a below normal season with 8-14 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes, and 1-3 major hurricanes. For probability, they predict a 35% chance of a near-normal season, a 10% chance of an above-normal season, and a 55% chance of a below-normal season. As a reminder, even below average seasons can have major impacts. All it takes is one storm making landfall for it to be a devastating season in the U.S.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/Screenshot 2026-05-21 100455-1779379504114.png">NOAA sites several factors in their forecast, including the burgeoning El Ni­­ño, and possible Super Ni­­ño, shaping up in the tropical Pacific. The expectation for an El Ni­­ño event during the peak of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane season is a big factor in keeping numbers lower than previous years, along with near normal sea surface temperatures, which have been much above average in recent seasons.The confidence in an El Niño developing this summer is quite high, but the remaining question is how strong will the event be? A weak El Ni­­ño typically has a lower impact on the tropics in the Atlantic, while a strong El Ni­­ño has a more consistent impact. Each updated forecast from the Climate Prediction Center shows higher confidence in this year's El Ni­­ño being on the strong side.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/Screenshot 2026-05-21 083641-1779374209515.png">Why does El Ni­­ño typically reduce hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin? The warmer water in the equatorial pacific often leads to a more energetic sub-tropical jet, leading to stronger winds in the upper-atmosphere over the Caribbean. Surface winds in the Caribbean most often comes from the east, known as the trade winds. When these winds lay under strong winds from the opposite (or even the same direction), it leads to strong wind shear which tears hurricanes apart.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/04/Screenshot 2026-04-09 063418-1775740706915.png">“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”If this year's name list looks familiar, it's the same one from the historically active 2020 season. There is one difference: the name "Laura" was retired after Hurricane Laura devastated the Louisiana coast. It was replaced with "Leah".<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/04/Screenshot 2026-04-09 065301-1775741404492.png"><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/csu-releases-first-hurricane-forecast-for-2026">Colorado State University's Tropical Weather Department has already released their early forecast for the Atlantic Hurricane Season.</a> They are calling for a near normal to slightly below average season with 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Even with a slightly below average season, major hurricanes are expected with many other named storms. Any named storm that hits land can have major to extreme impacts, so join us here on WeatherNation for Hurricane Prep Week! We'll be talking science with the experts, preparations and so much more. Be sure to check us out LIVE on<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/watch-us"> these platforms</a> or on our YouTube stream June 1-7!<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/CcuXpHBtV9o" start="0"></iframe></div>

NOAA Predicts Below Normal 2026 Hurricane Season

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released several important seasonal outlooks today, including their expectations for the upcoming Atlantic Hurricane Season. Hurricane season and summer are expected to be impacted by a burgeoning El Niño, which could be very strong through much of the second half of 2026. Among the new outlooks issued are the seasonal forecasts for meteorological summer, which runs from June through August. NOAA is expecting much of the lower 48 to experience above average temperatures (top of page), with higher confidence across the Western U.S. The Midwest and parts of the middle Mississippi Valley have even chances for above or below average temperatures.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/Screenshot 2026-05-21 113803-1779385356524.png">Much of the country is forecast to have near normal rainfall for the 3 month period, but a few areas are favored for below average precipitation. These include the Texas Gulf Coast, Upper-Midwest, and the Pacific Northwest. In contrast, the Northeastern U.S. is slightly favored to see above average precipitation. Parts of the Four Corners region have been given better chances for above average rainfall, indicating the Climate Prediction Center expects an above-average monsoon season. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/Screenshot 2026-05-21 113858-1779385377893.png">Not surprisingly, the forecast rainfall in the Four Corners could lead to drought improvement, which is expected in the seasonal drought outlook (above). Drought is also expected to improve in Florida, parts of Texas, and the lower Mississippi Valley. Drought is expected to expand or develop from California through Minnesota.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/Screenshot 2026-05-21 113928-1779385397348.png">The North American Monsoon (NAM) develops in Mexico in June and shifts north into the Four Corners, Great Basin, and California into July, August, and September. More data is needed to understand any correlation between El Niño and the NAM, but tropical systems tend to be more active in the Eastern Pacific during El Niño years. Remnants of these system can greatly increase rainfall during the NAM.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/Screenshot 2026-05-21 114106-1779385397348.png">

NOAA Releases Summer Outlook, Above Average Temperatures Expected

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ROCKIES - Through the rest of the week, an upper-level low and a cold front will move into the Rocky Mountains, bringing cooler air, chances for thunderstorms, and even snow across the region!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/Screenshot 2026-05-21 114928-1779385809408.png">A Winter Weather Advisory and Winter Storm Warning have been issued for portions of Montana and Wyoming in the higher elevations. Heavy snow is expected on north-facing slopes above 7,000 feet, where snowfall totals of 8–13 inches are possible.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/Screenshot 2026-05-21 115055-1779385865123.png">In addition to the snowy conditions, temperatures ahead of the system will remain warm enough to support instability and thunderstorms. Portions of the Plains are under a highlighted risk area for severe thunderstorms as this cooler air mass collides with the warmer air ahead of the front. A SLIGHT (Level 2 out of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms is forecast for Colorado and surrounding states today. Wind and hail are expected to be the primary hazards, but a tornado or two will be possible.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/Screenshot 2026-05-21 115022-1779386008123.png">As the front moves in and provides additional forcing, stronger storms will become possible through the afternoon and evening.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/eco-1779386103698.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Rainfall totals are not expected to be nearly as high as they were earlier this week, but some minor disruptions to outdoor plans during the holiday long weekend are still possible.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/Screenshot 2026-05-21 115520-1779386130337.png">Be sure to join us on WeatherNation for the latest!

Dave Holder

Rockies Brace for Snow, Severe Storms as Cold Front Moves In

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Brittany Lockley

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A big warmup is taking hold across the eastern United States, bringing temperatures that will feel more like midsummer than mid-May. Much of the East Coast, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast saw temperatures surge into record-breaking territory as a strong area of high pressure settled over the region.&nbsp;Numerous records were broken on Tuesday afternoon, including Newark, NJ, which hit a high of 99 degrees. The NE can see one more day of record warmth before temperatures cool off.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/NORTHEAST HIGHS-1779242730674.png">RELATED: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/severe-storms-possible-in-the-plains-midwest-to-end-the-week">Severe Chances on the Plains</a>High temperatures are forecast to climb into the 80s across many areas, while some cities could approach or even reach 90 degrees for the first time this year in the Northeast. The normal average for New York City this time of year is 72°, but the forecast high is expected to be 85° on Wednesday. Temperatures will dip back down to the 60s on Thursday, once a front passes.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/Screenshot 2026-05-20 030656-1779268041186.png">On Wednesday, more records will be broken with some locations up to 20 to 30 degrees warmer than what is typical for this time of year.&nbsp;This has prompted heat advisories through Wednesday afternoon. Major cities along the Interstate 95 corridor, including Philadelphia and New York City, will come close to daily temperature records if the heat intensifies enough. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/Screenshot 2026-05-20 031314-1779268412172.png">Additional records are likely to fall through mid-week across the East before our central U.S. cold front draws in cooler air and stormy weather.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/Screenshot 2026-05-20 032043-1779268878961.png">Despite the urge, stay out of the waters in the area. Many bodies of water are barely above freezing, which could shock the system into paralysis if you jump in<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/Screenshot 2026-05-18 104353-1779122640973.png">The unusually warm pattern will come to an end after our front passes through on Thursday. By the end of the week, many spots will be closer to seasonal norms in the 70's<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/Screenshot 2026-05-20 031551-1779268564533.png">

One More Day of Blistering Temperatures

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Tropical Storm Tara is the 19th named system to develop during the 2018 Eastern Pacific hurricane season.  As of Monday evening, the center of Tara was located just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.  A sustained wind speed of 50 mph was observed with higher gusts.

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Tropical Storm Watches were posted for areas between Punta San Telmo and Cabo Corrientes.  Tropical Storm conditions will be possible late Monday night and Tuesday.

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With a slow and at times nearly stationary movement, this storm is expected to impact the same areas through midweek.  This will result in the threat of flash flooding in the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco.  Total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated amounts up to 12 inches are likely in coastal sections of these states.

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Looking ahead, another area of tropical development is possible in the Eastern Pacific basin.  According to the National Hurricane Center, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop a couple hundred miles south of Guatemala and the southeastern coast of Mexico around midweek.  Environmental conditions---low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures---are forecast to be prime for development.  A tropical depression will most likely form by late week as the system moves west-northwest along and near the southern coast of Mexico.

<img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-98512" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/10/VicentePossible-728x408.jpg" alt="" width="728" height="408" />

Should that be the case, Vicente would be name of the next storm.

<img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-98511" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/10/TheList-728x408.jpg" alt="" width="728" height="408" />

Keep it tuned to WeatherNation for the latest tropical updates and top weather stories.

- <a href="http://www.facebook.com/MeteorologistJoeAstolfi">Meteorologist Joe Astolfi</a>

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Tropical Storm Tara Soaks Mexico

Repeated Rain Raises the Flood Threat Down South

A slow-moving frontal boundary that brought n

Severe Storms Stick Around Thursday

We've had quite the active stretch to start t

CALIFORNIA: Wildfires Prompt Evacuations

SIMI VALLEY, CA - On Monday, May 18th in Vent

NOAA Predicts Below Normal 2026 Hurricane Season

NOAA has released their predictions for the 2

NOAA Releases Summer Outlook, Above Average Temperatures Expected

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administ

Rockies Brace for Snow, Severe Storms as Cold Front Moves In

ROCKIES - Through the rest of the week, an up

One More Day of Blistering Temperatures

A big warmup is taking hold across the easter