Updated Hurricane Season Forecasts Released
On Tuesday, Colorado State University updated their outlook for the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. The forecast changed from expecting a “less active” season (as compared to normal), to now, a near normal season.
The updated outlook increases the overall number of named storms and hurricanes expected, but just slightly. The initial forecast from CSU called for 13 named storms, 5 of which would become hurricanes, and 2 of those becoming major hurricanes. But, the latest update brings the total number of named storms to 14, including 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.
The 30 year average has a total of 12 names storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
This latest outlook from CSU says that the forecast includes the already named ‘Andrea‘ which formed in the Atlantic in late May.
The Colorado State Tropical Meteorology program is one of the more well-renowned hurricane season forecasts released.
The National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) released their outlook in late May, also calling for a near normal season.
Both point to contributing factors including the uncertainty of El Nino’s effect on the tropical Atlantic season. Other factors contributing to the outlook include warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and an enhanced west African monsoon, both of which favor increased hurricane activity.
No matter what the outlook says, it’s important to remember that the overall number of storms do not imply landfall or impacts of any particular system. Those details can only be determined by each individual storm as they develop.
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