Hurricane Erin is not expected to make direct landfall in the U.S., but dangerous conditions will still impact the eastern seaboard, including high surf and strong rip currents. Currently a Category 2 hurricane, Erin has maximum sustained winds of 100 mph and a central pressure of 954 mb. The storm is located about 455 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and is large, with tropical storm-force winds extending well outward. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Outer Banks of North Carolina, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for coastal areas of Virginia to the north.
Storm surge will be one of the significant impacts from Erin, as the storm pushes large swells toward the coast. Storm surge and tropical storm conditions are expected on the North Carolina Outer Banks as early as Wednesday afternoon. The large waves may cause beach erosion, and some roads could become impassable. Evacuation orders are currently in effect for both Hatteras Island and Ocracoke Island. Tropical storm conditions are also likely on Thursday along the southeastern coast of Virginia. Up to 4 feet of storm surge is possible along the Carolinas' coast, accompanied by waves reaching 15 to 25 feet.
Multiple tropical alerts have been issued for the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Remember, from the National Hurricane Center:
Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov."
Erin will continue to track Northwest and stay a Category 2, potentially re-strengthening to a major hurricane. Erin is forecast to track Northwest then turn North. The strength of the ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic will determine when Erin takes this turn northward. Jet stream energy will also help kick Erin further out into the Atlantic as a trough moves east.
While most of the heavy rainfall will be over the Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center is still forecasting that parts of North Carolina could gather up 1 to 4 inches of rain in outer rainbands from Erin Wednesday night into Thursday. Flooding is a possibility, especially when factoring in the storm surge at high tide.
Venturing into the water as a beachgoer is extremely dangerous along the East Coast this week. So far, Numerous rip current rescues have been reported, just in the Tar Heel State alone.
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