Kevin Schneider

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The tropical wave that has moved through the "MDR" officially became Tropical Storm Jerry on Tuesday morning. The initial forecast cone makes a close call with the Leeward Islands before turning northward and potentially threatening Bermuda late this weekend.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-08 203350-1759977277598.png">Several tropical storm watch advisories have been issued for some in the Lesser Antilles as a result of Jerry's forecast track as it heads north.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-08 203457-1759977307258.png"> The GFS model has been keeping this system just east of the Caribbean islands and steering it around a Bermuda High, like many of the storms we've seen developing in the Atlantic this season.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/New Baron Video 3-1759954078906.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>There is an additional area the NHC is watching, a 10%, low chance for tropical formation in the Bay of Campeche by midweek. Currently, the broad trough of low pressure is causing disorganized showers and storms around the Yucatan Peninsula and will move into the Bay of Campeche on Tuesday. There's a narrow wind of development before it moves inland into southern Mexico.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/web3-1759917735508.png">Although unlikely, if a named system were to come of this, the next name on the list is Karen.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/TROPICAL NAMS-1759873018519.png">Make sure to stay tuned to WeatherNation for the latest on the tropics!

Dave Holder

Watching Jerry In the Atlantic

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Taban Sharifi grew up in Southern California between Los Angeles and San Diego. She is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) with the American Meteorological Society (AMS). She has a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Environmental Sciences with a minor in Environmental Systems and Society from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Go Bruins! While in school, Taban was a meteorology intern with NBC LA. There she helped forecast daily weather for the greater Los Angeles region and created a playbook to deploy weather sensors for NBC owned-and-operated stations across the country. Her first on-air job took her to San Angelo, Texas, where she was a morning meteorologist and co-anchor. Working in West Texas gave her knowledge and experience covering severe storms. From there, she moved to Palm Springs, California. People think forecasting in California is sunshine all the time, but with temperatures in the 120’s, wildfires, damaging winds, floodings, and earthquakes, the forecasting kept her very busy! She also worked there as a general assignment reporter and told community stories. Taban is excited for the challenge and opportunity to forecast nationally with WeatherNation. She also looks forward to exploring all that Colorado has to offer!

Taban Sharifi

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An area of low pressure is expected to form along the southeast coast by this weekend. Onshore winds will keep the threat for coastal flooding around for the area. Heavy rainfall could also lead to additional flooding for the region. This low is not expected to gain tropical characteristics but could still bring impacts to the Carolinas and even the Northeast.THE TIMINGWe start to see the low forming early weekend, amping up moisture and wind gusts. The low will continue to ride up the coast through early next week.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/COASTLALALA-1759971398206.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) already has a marginal to slight risk for heavy rainfall and flooding for Friday and Saturday across the Carolinas.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/web1-1759921172258.png">The Outer Banks of North Carolina are under a slight risk for scattered flood concerns.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/web2-1759921206931.png">The outlook for excessive rain extends all the way out to Sunday, when the coastal low is expected to track north, bringing a slight risk of flash flooding through the Outer Banks into coastal Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1759977404137.png">The 3 - 7 day hazards outlook has cities like Wilmington, NC, and Virginia Beach, VA highlighted for the potential of high winds. The timeline for these strong winds is Saturday to Monday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-07 165222-1759877550401.png">Stay with WeatherNation for the latest updates.

Jesse Kelley

Weekend Coastal Low: Rain & Flooding Threat

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Karissa is the Director of On-Air Operations at WeatherNation. Karissa grew up loving math and science, but really fell in love with Meteorology while attending the College of DuPage in Glen Ellyn, Illinois. After two summers of storm chasing in the central plains, she knew that it was the career path for her. Standing in front of a thunderstorm and feeling the cool outflow knock her over was an experience she will never forget. After two years at COD, she transferred to Metropolitan State University of Denver. Karissa graduated Magna Cum Laude with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology. Her high school and college speech and meteorology professors were extremely supportive and pushed her to succeed. Before joining the WeatherNation team, she previously worked as the Morning Meteorologist at KCAU-TV in Sioux City, Iowa and at WMBD-TV in Peoria, IL. She recently was part of a National Edward R. Murrow award winning team for breaking news for their coverage of the EF-4 tornado in Washington, Illinois. In her free time, Karissa enjoys cooking and trying new foods. She is a self proclaimed 'TV Junkie' who can get into just about any show. She is a die hard Chicago sports fan who loves attending professional sporting events.

Karissa Klos

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The National Weather Service in Grand Forks, ND, has ruled that a tornado near Enderlin, ND, caused EF-5 level damage upon further investigation. This marks the end of 12 years without a surveyed EF-5 tornado in the U.S. The last time EF-5 damage was reported from a tornado was in May of 2013 in Moore, OK.The tornado is estimated to have wind speeds greater than 210 miles per hour. This tornado was on the ground for 12.1 miles with a width of just over a mile! Sadly, this storm caused three fatalities.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-06 104454-1759769110628.png">Here is more on what led the NWS to upgrade its survey findings:<blockquote>"The National Weather Service in Grand Forks conducted additional surveys and worked extensively with wind damage experts to further investigate the 20 June 2025 Enderlin, ND tornado #1. The estimated maximum wind speed of the Enderlin, ND tornado #1 is greater than 210 mph and occurred during the time of the train derailment south of Enderlin, ND. The analysis involved forensic damage wind speed estimates for tipping several fully-loaded grain hopper cars and lofting of tanker cars, including one empty tanker car that was tossed about 475.7 ft (145 m)."</blockquote><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-06 102949-1759768203710.png">We spoke with the National Weather Service in Grand Forks, ND, to learn more about the decision to upgrade the tornado rating and the factors that influenced the decision.<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/xSnzPzENapk" start="0"></iframe></div><h1>SET-UP</h1>On June 20, 2025, a derecho brought wind gusts of 70 -105 mph to the north central U.S., spanning over 400 miles and leaving hundreds of thousands of households without power. Multiple long-track, destructive tornadoes were within this storm system.A derecho is a long-lived severe wind event, with specific criteria about the length and width of the damaging wind swath. The <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/derechofacts.htm">SPC has a detailed page</a> dedicated to these destructive windstorms. Several typically occur each year, though they can vary in intensity and area. A notable <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/one-year-ago-the-midwest-derecho">derecho ripped through Des Moines in 2020</a>, producing hurricane-force winds and widespread damage.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/2025-06-21%2005-35-48-1750505871964.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h2 style="text-align: start">OTHER REPORTS</h2>Wind gusts in North Dakota and Minnesota (as well as northern South Dakota) were impressive, many over hurricane strength. A wake-low also developed behind the leading edge, producing severe strength winds (58+ mph) in some locations for over an hour!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot%202025-06-21%20053620-1750505847379.png">Bemidji, Minnesota, was hit particularly hard in the overnight hours as an intense bout of winds moved through the area, with a tornado potentially embedded in the circulation. The Bemidji Regional Airport reported a gust to 106 mph, with widespread damage reported in the area.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot%202025-06-21%20053627-1750505847378.png">The widely spanning severe winds have left hundreds of thousands of households in the dark the following morning, with some counties reporting well over 60-60% of customers without power. As a reminder, if you're going to run a generator to power anything, keep it at least 25 feet away from any opening in your home, like windows and doors.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/1-1750541351436.png">This was one of many severe weather events that pushed<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/north-dakota-breaks-yearly-tornado-record"> North Dakota to break their yearly tornado record</a>.<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/2dgiWTWdp-0" start="0"></iframe></div><h1></h1>

Upgraded North Dakota Tornado Ends EF-5 Drought

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Meteorologist Jesse Kelley is excited to join the talented staff at Weather Nation. Jesse spent most of his childhood in Birmingham, Alabama. The state of Alabama is prone to seeing various types of weather from severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, hurricanes, and winter weather. For college, Jesse attended the University of South Alabama where he received his degree in Broadcast Meteorology along with minors in Math and Geography. From Alabama, Jesse started his broadcast television working three years at KAVU-TV in Victoria. Recently, he finished a stint in Shreveport, LA. Jesse and his wife are looking forward to making the Rocky Mountains and Colorado home. If you would like to follow me, you can follow me on Twitter @JesseKelleywx and on Facebook at Meteorologist Jesse Kelley.

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As we head into the end of the work week, moisture associated with Tropical Storm Priscilla will get caught up in the subtropical jet and bring moisture back to the southwestern U.S. Flooding will be a big story for the second half of the work week!<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/sw moisture-1759802481081.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Out ahead of the event, Flood Watches has been issued for parts of the Four Corners into Saturday night. Several inches of rain will be possible into early next week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1759954337066.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1759954419230.png">Rain chances will start on Thursday, but the heaviest of the rain and a few snow showers will be possible on Friday and Saturday. In some spots of the Four Corners and California, the grounds are pretty saturated from previous rainfalls induced by tropical moisture from the Eastern Pacific.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/sw l-1759971639307.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>We'll be detailing this more live on WeatherNation. For a more immediate update on your southwest regional forecast, be sure to tune in at:50!

Jackie Brown

Moisture Returns To The Southwest, Some Priscilla Influence Later

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The Eastern Pacific has had a fairly average season so far, with periods of high activity at times. 16 storms have been named thus far, with the total seasonal energy (ACE) running just barely below average (93%). The next week or two will likely be another period of higher activity, which could push the season to above-average numbers.<h1>Hurricane Priscilla</h1>Along the coast of Mexico, we have Tropical Storm Priscilla. Priscilla could bring tropical storm conditions to the SW coast of Mexico. Popular tourist spot Cabo San Lucas is under a tropical storm watch, as this system parallels the Baja coast.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1759955859293.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-07 130049-1759863765286.png">The forecast cone of uncertainty has Priscilla moving parallel to the Baja over the next few days. This weekend, the remnant moisture moves into the Desert Southwest.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1759955921779.png"><h1>Tropical Storm Octave</h1>Octave formed last Tuesday in the Eastern Pacific, became a hurricane, and has since weakened to a tropical storm. Octave continues to move east towards Mexico.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/web4-1759918036038.png"><h1>Tropical Wave</h1>There is a high chance of tropical formation with a wave behind Priscilla, south of southern Mexico, and it is likely that a tropical depression could form by the middle to latter part of this week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/web4-1759855500752.png">If this wave gets a name, the next on the list after Priscilla is Raymond.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-04 163649-1759617419832.png">Stay tuned on WeatherNation for the latest!

Eastern Pacific: Hurricane Priscilla and Tropical Storm Octave

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<h1>TEMPERATURES</h1>A cold front sweeping through the Plains has brought a noticeable temperature drop behind it. Widespread Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings have now continued into Wednesday morning. Daytime highs are dropping 20+ degrees from where they were Sunday for cities where the cold front has crossed. As impressive as that is, we're only getting back to where seasonal avereges, which shows how warm it's been for a little while. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-07 073601-1759844169282.png"><h1>RAIN / STORMS</h1>An upper-level trough is also contributing to this storm setup, supporting a surface cold front expected to move east and southeast through Wednesday. With dew points in the 60s, there’s plenty of moisture to fuel thunderstorms, but limited instability should keep most storms below severe thresholds.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-07 073730-1759844263068.png">The frontal system will continue tapping into Gulf moisture as it moves through the Mid-South and Ohio Valley. The available moisture will spark a flash flooding threat, as several cities get hit for 2 days in rain as this system slows down.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/10-06_rne bams3k-1759802883898.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The Weather Prediction Center has issued excessive rainfall outlooks through Tuesday across these regions. They have now been upgraded to slight (level 2 out of 4), but rain rates may get as heavy as 1-2" per hour.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-07 073642-1759844214639.png">With high rain rates, rainfall totals between 2-4" are possible by the time it's all said and done. Many areas have already picked up a few inches of rain already, here's what more we could have in store<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-07 073851-1759844339091.png">We’ll keep tracking this system as it shifts east through midweek. The good news is cooler, drier air settles in behind it, bringing a welcome taste of fall once the storms clear out.

Fall Front Triggers Frost and Storm Threat

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WeatherNation Meteorologists

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Grab the pumpkin spice and apple cider donuts, fall foliage has been developing quickly across the United States, with more color this week dropping into the middle latitudes! The latest forecast from <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.explorefall.com/fall-foliage-map">Explore Fall</a> (top of page) shows peak color emerging across the higher elevations of the Colorado Rockies, and the Beartooth and Wind River Ranges in Wyoming over the next seven days (September 30 - October 6). <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-29 203511-1759199719401.png">Color has quickly developed and already peaked for regions in the dark orange and red shades above (orange to red areas), much of it across the Rockies and Cascades. The Upper-Midwest and northern New England/New York are also experiencing some peak color!<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1970624217776607589" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1970624217776607589"></div>The most 30 days before the appearance of fall color are the most important for vibrancy during the peak season, but drought conditions can also lead to more muted color or variable conditions.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-08 105237-1757350392233.png">For great fall color, sunny days with cool, crisp nights are preferable. Rain is welcome at times, however, to keep the trees from drying out.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-08 105303-1757350398827.png">Ever wonder which trees produce certain colors? Check out the handy identification guide for foliage below!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-21 041320-1758449873768.png">

Tracey Anthony

Fall Color Is Peaking in Parts of the Lower 48

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Alana Cameron was born and raised in Canada in the city of Mississauga, just outside of Toronto. Alana is the oldest of 4 siblings, all close in age, and grew up playing outside with them in all types of weather. After graduating high school, Alana moved to study at the University of British Columbia in Kelowna for a year before transferring to Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia where she completed a Bachelor of Science in Physics and Atmospheric Science. Upon completion, Alana moved back to Toronto where she completed a post-grad degree in Meteorology at York University. After her post-grad, she went on to complete another post-grad in Broadcast Journalism - TV News at Fanshawe College in London, Ontario. During her final year of studies she had the privilege of interning with the best in the business in Canada at The Weather Network. Once she finished her internship, she got the call from small-town Denison, Texas where she accepted a job as an on-air meteorologist at KTEN-TV, right in tornado alley, covering severe weather from Sherman/Denison (North Texas) to Ada (Southern Oklahoma). After the most active tornado season Oklahoma had seen in May 2019 (105 tornadoes!) Alana is excited to join WeatherNation to cover weather all across the nation. If you're interested in following her on social media she can be found @alanacameronwx!

Alana Cameron

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NORTH CAROLINA - These abandoned houses were no match for the powerful swells generated by Humberto and Imelda, which brought high surf, flooding, and heavy rain to the Outer Banks. It is believed that up to 8 homes have succumbed to the Atlantic Ocean in the last few days. <div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1973423019470233900" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1973423019470233900"></div>Up until last Tuesday, 12 homes had been swept away into the Atlantic in the Outer Banks since 2020. Why are so many homes being swept away, you may ask? In many cases, what protected a house decades ago is no longer sufficient because the shore has receded, sea levels are higher, and strong storms have been more frequent or powerful.<h2>Coastal Impacts</h2>Humberto and Imelda dissipated in the Atlantic, but dangerous swells will still be likely in their wake. Coastal flooding alerts across the East Coast remain in place through Friday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-02 171644-1759447015965.png">For a detailed forecast on Imelda, read this related article: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/potential-tropical-cyclone-nine">Imelda Strengthens Ahead of Impacting Bermuda.</a>

More Homes Succumb to the Atlantic Ocean

Coastal Impacts

Watching Jerry In the Atlantic

The tropical wave that has moved through the

Weekend Coastal Low: Rain & Flooding Threat

An area of low pressure is expected to form a

Upgraded North Dakota Tornado Ends EF-5 Drought

The National Weather Service in Grand Forks,

Moisture Returns To The Southwest, Some Priscilla Influence Later

As we head into the end of the work week, moi

Eastern Pacific: Hurricane Priscilla and Tropical Storm Octave

The Eastern Pacific has had a fairly average

Fall Front Triggers Frost and Storm Threat

TEMPERATURESA cold front sweeping through the

Fall Color Is Peaking in Parts of the Lower 48

Grab the pumpkin spice and apple cider donuts