Kevin Schneider

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Another storm system looks to target the southern tier of the country to end the weekend and start the holiday week ahead. This follows a strong low that brought record rain and significant flooding to Texas and Oklahoma to end the previous week.<h2><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/Screenshot 2025-11-22 063225-1763818770015.png">Next Severe Storm Threat</h2>As the next low-pressure system starts to exit the Rockies and Northern Mexico, wind shear and updraft energy should be sufficient to allow a few strong/severe storms to develop on Sunday. A few strong storms are possible early, before a better chance develops into the evening and overnight. Large hail is the biggest concern at this point.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/Screenshot 2025-11-23 114041-1763923251096.png">The severe weather threat continues to push east along the cold front on Monday. Areas from northern Mississippi to central Texas will see the chance for severe weather. There has been an upgrade to Monday's severe risk. We are not looking at a SLIGHT risk of severe storms from southern Arkansas to Austin, Texas. This means scattered severe storms will be likely in the forecast for the yellow-highlighted area.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/Screenshot 2025-11-23 114008-1763923215716.png"><h2>Timing</h2>A few strong storms are possible starting Sunday morning, falling over the Texas Hill Country. This will mean we see the flash flood threat develop early as well, as slow-moving storms begin to lift north toward the Panhandle. Scattered storms continue to push east along the warm front across northern Texas and Oklahoma, before the strongest storms are expected to develop in west Texas in the evening. These storms, driven by the cold front, will have a better chance to reach severe weather limits as they push east across the Red River Valley overnight into early Monday. Monday's storms look to start near I-35 in northern Texas before moving east into Louisiana and Arkansas by the afternoon and evening.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/gss-1763921734211.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h2>Rainfall &amp; Flood Threat</h2>Heavy downpours are expected at times with this storm system. Rainfall rates could surpass 2" per hour with rainfall totals over 4-6" possible.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/Screenshot 2025-11-23 083144-1763912189232.jpg">With heavy rain in the forecast so soon after a soaking storm system, flash flooding is likely to develop more quickly. The WPC has issued two slight risks for excessive rainfall (flash flooding). Please avoid flooded roadways as you travel to start the week!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/Screenshot 2025-11-23 083645-1763912213764.jpg">

Jackie Brown

Severe Weather Slides into the Southern Plains

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The Upper Midwest has been fairly quiet recently. Naturally, when everyone is trying to travel back home, that trend breaks. A strong trough will kick out a windy area of low-pressure. That could bring some wintry weather back to the Dakotas and into the Great Lakes. <h1>WIND</h1>A strong system with a lot of wind energy will drive up the wind speeds Monday night into Tuesday. By Tuesday morning, areas around the Black Hills could be talking about wind gusts in the 50-60 mph range! Would it be enough to knock out power? Potentially. With travel starting to ramp up throughout the week, the bigger concern might have to be higher-profile vehicles on plenty of east-west facing interstates.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/Screenshot 2025-11-23 102359-1763918779985.png"><h1>SNOW</h1>Not only with the wind be howling, but there could be some snowflakes mixing in too! The amount of snow isn't the most concerning aspect; it's the visibility that could worsen already tough driving conditions.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/Screenshot 2025-11-23 103003-1763919367662.png">With fast-moving systems, it can be a little tricky nailing down exact numbers, but half a foot could be possible. The best odds look to be in North Dakota and Minnesota.<h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/Screenshot 2025-11-23 103204-1763919358598.png">TIMING</h1><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/2025-11-23 10-36-32-1763919458642.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Windy System Blows Through Upper Midwest This Week

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It is that time of year again—when millions of Americans hit the road or the skies to connect with friends and family. AAA is expecting a record number of travelers this year, surpassing the record-breaking 2024. Most travelers will be hitting the road vs flying.<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/o78PUXSJCJU" start="0"></iframe></div><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/Screenshot 2025-11-17 104347-1763401813998.png">With millions hitting the roads, traffic will be hard to avoid, no matter where you are heading. However, there will be some better times to do your traveling. AAA suggests starting the journey early, but with a reasonable night of sleep the night prior.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/Screenshot 2025-11-17 105052-1763401888415.png">With so many traveling over the holidays, there are some favored destinations. Besides New York City, the other nine top destinations favor warm weather in late November.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/Screenshot 2025-11-17 110215-1763402544204.png">How does this compare to previous years? With more than 6 million people expected to fly, that's a 2% increase compared to last year, but it's a more than 10% jump compared to pre-pandemic levels!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/Screenshot 2025-11-17 105653-1763402231681.png">

A Record Breaking Thanksgiving Travel Week Expected

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As the most recent windy system moves the northeast, we wait on our next. Unfortunately, it looks like it might move through around a time that could complicate holiday plans.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/Screenshot 2025-11-23 112422-1763922444302.png">As this system <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/windy-system-blows-through-upper-midwest-this-week">spins it's way into the Great Lakes</a>, widespread rain will build by Tuesday into Wednesday. If you're holding a balloon in the parade, the winds are what concern you. It doesn't look like it will be windy enough to affect much of the parade, but balloons might have to be lowered to help offset winds funneling between buildings.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/Screenshot 2025-11-23 112221-1763922720444.png">All of this to say - Thanksgiving parades are probably alright in the northeast. Unless they're in the western New York area. Those winds will be breezy at times, but the direction is most important! A westerly wind will carry warmer air temperatures from the lake waters into much cooler air temperatures behind all of this. The result? Thanksgiving Lake Effect Snow! Impressive bands have been noted on some longer-range models around Erie and Buffalo.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/Screenshot 2025-11-23 113329-1763922919015.png">

FIRMLY GRASP IT: Have Something to Contend With This Week

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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Hurricane Melissa was a devastating category 5 storm that made landfall in Jamaica as one of the strongest systems on record in the Atlantic Basin.A dropsonde recorded a wind gust of 252 mph shortly before landfall, which was verified this week by NSF NCAR (U.S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research) to be accurate, making it the strongest gust ever recorded in a tropical cyclone.WeatherNation Meteorologist Rob Bradley discusses the data and Melissa's intense winds with hurricane researcher Andy Hazelton, who was working the data position on the reconnaissance flight that recorded the record gust.<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/n8DyYwpvi0w" start="0"></iframe></div>What are meso-vortices? These are smaller scale circulations in the atmosphere that are essentially miniature low pressure systems. These can be observed within clusters of thunderstorms, but they also appear within the eye and eye wall of intense hurricanes. Melissa produced some of the most visually stunning meso-vortices in the satellite era (below).<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1983738129581301844" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1983738129581301844"></div>

Hurricane Melissa Produces Strongest Gust Recorded in a Hurricane

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Brittany Lockley

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A cut-off low will be moving out of southern California, bringing a surge of deep moisture to the Four Corners this weekend through next week. This low will bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms.&nbsp;Communities across northwest New Mexico, southeast Utah, southwest Colorado, and northeast Arizona could an abundant amount of rain, with some areas picking up over an inch of rain by the end of the weekend.&nbsp;<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/2025-11-22 08-09-43-1763824217158.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>In the mountains, snow has been piling up with 2-9" of snow reported across multiple states on Friday. Higher elevations are cold enough for accumulating mountain snow once again, which may create tricky travel conditions over passes and high-country roadways throughout a busy week for travel.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/Screenshot 2025-11-22 081034-1763824255136.png"><h2>Forecast</h2>Rain and snow chances will persist throughout the weekend, as the system moves to the Northeast. Heavy snow will return to the mountains, with difficult travel, especially on I-70 in Colorado. The rain and snow will mostly clear out by the beginning of next week.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/New Baron Video 3-1763867781581.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Isolated rain totals through Sunday could top an inch or two in some areas of Arizona. Some ponding on the roadways and street flooding will be possible. Expect heavy snow in the mountains, upwards of 6"+ in many locations. Ski resorts in Colorado could see more than a foot.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/1-1763867831465.png">Denver is preparing for a noticeably colder and more unsettled stretch of weather. a flurry might fall down in the Denver metro Saturday into Sunday as a stronger push of colder air drops into the Front Range.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/2025-11-22 08-20-04-1763824846586.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>While totals will depend on how quickly temperatures fall and how long the moisture stays in place, it just might be too warm in the metro to see snow.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/1-1763867877561.png">&nbsp;

Jesse Kelley

Four Corners Expecting More Flooding Rain, Mountain Snow

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A strong storm system that brought severe storms and flooding rain to Texas and Oklahoma is on the move. The trough is moving east with more impactful weather before it heads into the Atlantic Saturday afternoon.Severe storms are possible along the cold front tonight through Saturday morning from Kentucky into Mississippi. Wind damage is expected to be the primary hazard, so be sure to secure any loose objects outdoors.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/1-1763781379997.png">Scattered heavy downpours are expected to persist north of the low across the Midwest and Ohio Valley tonight. Severe storms could form into the overnight hours. Our high-resolution forecast model shows supercell thunderstorms developing late in the evening in West Tennessee, before tracking east overnight into the Deep South.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/New Baron Video 3-1763781681080.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Rainfall totals don't look too impressive thanks to the progressive movement of this system. 1-2 inches is expected for most areas that see thunderstorms.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/1-1763781727696.png">

Trough Shifts East, Severe Storms & Flooding Possible

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Meteorologist Jesse Kelley is excited to join the talented staff at Weather Nation. Jesse spent most of his childhood in Birmingham, Alabama. The state of Alabama is prone to seeing various types of weather from severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, hurricanes, and winter weather. For college, Jesse attended the University of South Alabama where he received his degree in Broadcast Meteorology along with minors in Math and Geography. From Alabama, Jesse started his broadcast television working three years at KAVU-TV in Victoria. Recently, he finished a stint in Shreveport, LA. Jesse and his wife are looking forward to making the Rocky Mountains and Colorado home. If you would like to follow me, you can follow me on Twitter @JesseKelleywx and on Facebook at Meteorologist Jesse Kelley.

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A critical fire risk is in place for west Texas, eastern Colorado, and New Mexico through the weekend as gusty winds and dry grasses and low humidity create a dangerous situation. If a spark were to start, these are the conditions where rapid, life-threatening fire growth would be possible. Humidity values will be in the teens, meaning there will be no moisture in our atmosphere to help taper fire growth.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/04/1-1714253426666.png">Gusty winds are anticipated on Sunday, especially through New Mexico and West Texas. Winds could gust up to 40 mph unlike Saturday where gusts reached near 60s mph in Southern New Mexico. If a flame starts, it will move as quickly as the winds, at about 40 mph. We can't stress enough how critical this weekend's fire risk is.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/04/Baron 2-1714253811864.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Drought conditions are extreme and exceptional for southern New Mexico, while most of the region is experiencing moderate drought. Northern New Mexico and SW Texas are experiencing pockets of severe drought (level 3 out of 5).<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/04/drought-1714053897089.jpg">

Critical Fire Risk in West Texas, New Mexico

Severe Weather Slides into the Southern Plains

Another storm system looks to target the sout

Windy System Blows Through Upper Midwest This Week

The Upper Midwest has been fairly quiet recen

A Record Breaking Thanksgiving Travel Week Expected

It is that time of year again—when millions o

FIRMLY GRASP IT: Have Something to Contend With This Week

As the most recent windy system moves the nor

Hurricane Melissa Produces Strongest Gust Recorded in a Hurricane

Hurricane Melissa was a devastating category

Four Corners Expecting More Flooding Rain, Mountain Snow

A cut-off low will be moving out of southern

Trough Shifts East, Severe Storms & Flooding Possible

A strong storm system that brought severe sto