WeatherNation Meteorologists

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On Wednesday morning, Tropical Depression 9 became Tropical Storm Isaias off the Mexico coast in the southern Gulf. We expect this storm to continue to organize and begin rapidly intensifying as it makes its way north. Sometime Thursday, it should reach hurricane status, making it the first one in the Atlantic this year; shattering previous satellite-era records for the latest hurricane to form. Hurricane watches have been issued for portions of the Gulf Coast.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/pic4-1791398732097.png">As it moves north, the National Hurricane Center has its initial landfall forecast between New Orleans and Panama City Beach as a hurricane. Heavy rain and flooding will be possible along the Gulf Coast states, regardless of the system's strength.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/pic4-1791398854693.png">If you're living along the Gulf Coast, now is the time to start paying attention to the forecast. There is still some uncertainty in the forecast, as there is plenty of shear and dry air standing in its way as it moves north.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-06 043745-1791283113704.png"> That's why the ensemble forecasts below still don't perfectly line up. Anyone from the Louisiana coast to the Big Bend of Florida should be on alert since changes in the forecast are likely.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-07 040946-1791367809287.png">Our in-house BARON model shows nonstop heavy rain associated with a different system we've been tracking this week. The potential impacts are likely going to arrive this weekend.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/1007-1791382002170.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Regardless of strength and intensity, we can count on heavy rainfall across a lot of these Gulf Coast states into the weekend. We're seeing potential totals above 6 inches! The flood threat will definitely be there as a result.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-07 080652-1791382017590.png">The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has a moderate (level 3 out of 4) risk for heavy rainfall and flooding on Friday. This includes Mobile, AL and Destin, FL.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-07 080717-1791382091198.png">Stay tuned to the forecast here on WeatherNation. We'll bring you the details you need, and cut out all the hype.

Patrick Crawford

Tropical Storm Isaias Strengthening in the Gulf

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<h1>Pacific Basin</h1>The Pacific Ocean has been incredibly active so far this hurricane season, with no signs of slowing down. Nolo is now Typhon Nolo. Hurricane Rachel is still churning, and a new area of interest is likely to develop this week.<h2>Rachel</h2>Rachel continues to impact the western Mexico coastline indirectly; it will continue its trek west through the week. At times, this storm will run into some wind shear and weaken somewhat.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-07 040814-1791367714931.png">We also have Tropical Depression Twenty-E. This system is expected to meander along the Mexican coastline, with a likely impact to land late week. We'll have to wait and see if this moisture ends up over the Southwest!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-07 092837-1791387016885.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-07 092852-1791387007426.png"><h1>El Niño Fueling Pacific Activity</h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-07 040923-1791367778575.png">The surge in tropical activity comes as El Niño continues to strengthen across the equatorial Pacific. El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures across portions of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Those unusually warm waters can influence weather patterns around the globe while also creating an environment that can favor tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-28 194202-1790646127358.png">This year’s El Niño has already strengthened considerably, and forecasts indicate it could become exceptionally strong later this year.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-12 063433-1789216512410.png">

Tropical Update: EPAC Remains Active

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Brittany Lockley

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A major temperature divide is unfolding across the United States as millions experience a true taste of fall while parts of the West continue to deal with summer-like heat.&nbsp;A surge of cooler air has spread across much of the central and eastern United States, sending temperatures tumbling and bringing some of the chilliest conditions of the season so far. Meanwhile, unusually hot weather continues across portions of the West Coast, where temperatures are running well above what is typical for early October.&nbsp;Summer Hangs On in the West&nbsp;While jackets are coming out farther east, residents across portions of the West are still dealing with significant heat.&nbsp;Temperatures across parts of California and the interior West are running roughly 10 to 15 degrees above average in some locations. Triple-digit temperatures have even been recorded in portions of Southern California despite the calendar moving deeper into October.&nbsp;Los Angeles experienced consecutive October days with temperatures reaching at least 100 degrees, highlighting the intensity of the unusual fall heat.&nbsp;The persistent warmth stretches beyond Southern California, with above-average temperatures extending through portions of the Great Basin and toward the northern Rockies.&nbsp;Over the next 3 days, many cities will be near, tie, or break the current records.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-07 035357-1791366853404.png">Heat alerts remain in place through Friday. Los Angeles is under an extreme heat warning, meaning use caution if working outdoors and make sure to drink plenty of water.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-07 035446-1791366898851.png">Check out temperatures in Los Angeles: the average high is normally 80°, but temperatures will flirt again with the century mark even in the next few days. Temperatures will remain in the upper 90s for Las Vegas, and Phoenix will dig into the 100s.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-07 035550-1791366965841.png">The Northwest will also be threatening record-high temperatures. High temperatures will stay hot in most of the cities in the Northwest. These highs will be anywhere from 10-15° above average.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-07 035630-1791367010235.png">Meanwhile, in the Northeast, Fall Air Settles In&nbsp;A strong cold front has helped usher cooler, drier air into a large portion of the country. Behind the front, daytime temperatures are struggling to climb out of the 50s and 60s in some areas.&nbsp;The cooler air is especially noticeable during the overnight and early morning hours. Temperatures are dropping into the 30s and 40s across parts of the northern tier, Great Lakes and Northeast, creating the potential for frost in some of the coldest locations.&nbsp;For areas that have enjoyed a relatively warm start to fall, the change may feel especially dramatic.&nbsp;The arrival of the cooler air is also pushing temperatures below seasonal averages across portions of the central and eastern U.S., signaling a more traditional October weather pattern.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-07 040003-1791367220514.png">A Coast-to-Coast Temperature Contrast&nbsp;The dramatically different conditions are creating a weather map that looks more like two different seasons.&nbsp;Much of the East is experiencing crisp mornings, cooler afternoons, and increasing frost potential, while parts of the West remain firmly locked in a pattern more typical of late summer.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-07 040204-1791367341750.png">Eventually, the western heat is expected to ease as the weather pattern shifts. Until then, millions of Americans will continue experiencing very different versions of October depending on which side of the country they call home.Tune in to WeatherNation for the latest on this forecast and records that break throughout the days to come.

Fall Chill Grips the East While Record Heat Bakes the West

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A noticeable change in the weather is on the way for millions across the Great Lakes and Northeast as some of the coldest air since spring moves into the region.&nbsp;After an unusually warm start to October, a push of Canadian air will send temperatures tumbling over the next several days. The transition could eventually bring the season’s first widespread frost and freeze to portions of the northern United States.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-03 073235-1791034366761.png">Check out how cold the temperatures will be for the Northeast early next week. This cold air could kill temperature sensitive vegetation.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-05 063050-1791203461967.jpg">The cooldown marks a dramatic change following the recent stretch of unseasonably warm weather across the eastern United States.&nbsp;October is typically when the first freeze becomes increasingly common across the Midwest and Northeast, although the exact timing varies considerably depending on elevation and location.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-03 073713-1791034643040.png">For many across the Great Lakes and Northeast, the upcoming cold snap could provide the clearest sign yet that the warm days of early fall are beginning to fade.&nbsp;Stay Tuned for more details in the Eastern Regional forecast on WeatherNation TV :10 past the hour.

Fall Temperatures for the Northeast

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Tracey Anthony

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<h2></h2><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2105658995948281901" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2105658995948281901"></div><h2>WHAT TO EXPECT</h2>Tropical moisture from the remnants of Polo and the Gulf have surged north and met a frontal boundary. This has equaled a formula of very heavy rainfall. Flood alerts are in place through Thursday across portions of the plains and Midwest. The soils for this part of the country are already very saturated for many. This means adding more rainfall can lead to flooding of rivers, creeks, and streams, and flash flooding is not out of the question.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 4-1790897782083.png"><h2>TIMING</h2>Rounds of heavy rain will continue on and off. Isolated areas of flooding will be possible. Friday, this low will move east, and we will see drier conditions by the end of the week.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/FORECAST-1790897919777.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h2>TOTALS</h2>Folks can expect very heavy rainfall, with most seeing around 2"- 4". Some localized areas of a half foot will be possible! Never try to drive through floodwaters, and make sure to take any flood alerts and warnings seriously. If you live in an area prone to flooding, make sure to have an action plan in place if flooding develops! <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 5-1790897796211.png"> Make sure to tune into WeatherNation for the latest forecast!

Plains & Midwest: Slow Moving Storms Increase Flood Threat

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Taban Sharifi grew up in Southern California between Los Angeles and San Diego. She is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) with the American Meteorological Society (AMS). She has a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Environmental Sciences with a minor in Environmental Systems and Society from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Go Bruins! While in school, Taban was a meteorology intern with NBC LA. There she helped forecast daily weather for the greater Los Angeles region and created a playbook to deploy weather sensors for NBC owned-and-operated stations across the country. Her first on-air job took her to San Angelo, Texas, where she was a morning meteorologist and co-anchor. Working in West Texas gave her knowledge and experience covering severe storms. From there, she moved to Palm Springs, California. People think forecasting in California is sunshine all the time, but with temperatures in the 120’s, wildfires, damaging winds, floodings, and earthquakes, the forecasting kept her very busy! She also worked there as a general assignment reporter and told community stories. Taban is excited for the challenge and opportunity to forecast nationally with WeatherNation. She also looks forward to exploring all that Colorado has to offer!

Taban Sharifi

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In the last month, the southwestern states of New Mexico and Arizona have seen their fair share of monsoon showers and storms.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2103622200872079365" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2103622200872079365"></div>This week, tropical moisture is pushing across the Southwest and plains. This tropical moisture, from Hurricane Polo, will bring the potential for significant flooding across the region.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/poloooo-1790728785495.png">The flooding has already been seen across the Southwest, including Nevada.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2104753032432910655" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2104753032432910655"></div>A major push of this moisture will continue to move through.. Several more inches on top of what has already come down are expected. This can quickly lead to flash flooding and debris flows, especially over burn scars. The heaviest of the activity, now expected in Colorado and the Central Plains.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-30 054240-1790768613194.png">The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has a moderate (level 3 out of 4) flooding threat in place for portions of Colorado and New Mexico. The flooding threat will taper off by late-week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/overnighssss-1790820790763.png">Make sure to tune into Weathernation for the latest updates on the forecast.

Jackie Brown

Another Round of Flooding Possible for the Southwest

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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Hurricane Nolo spared the Hawaiian Islands from another direct impact this season, instead stalling about 150 miles south of the Big Island before heading west. Heavy rain and wind still impacted the islands, and will continue through the middle of the week as Nolo swings past Kauai. Field correspondent Jonathan Petramala was on the Big Island to bring us those impacts over the weekend.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/LL_TRT 1.14_JP GIVES UPDATE ON NOLO_MS_E092626-1790520644996.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Forecast / Impacts</h1>Nolo's impacts, including flooding, are not done with yet for the Hawaiian Islands. As Nolo heads north through the midweek, heavy rain on it's eastern side will hit the western Hawaiian Islands. 3-5 inches of rain could fall on Kauai, bringing flooding to the region. Kauai sustained a lot of damage just a few weeks back as Hurricane Lowell passed the island barely to the west.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-28 074803-1790603893032.png">Nolo looks to stall for a day as it then slowly heads farther west, keeping some rain and wind impacts around through at least Thursday. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-28 074651-1790603234688.png"><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/forecassssssss-1790557751613.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h2>Wind / Waves</h2>As Nolo tracks west, wave heights will still be on the high side, bringing hazards to boaters and beach goers. Southward-facing beaches can see increased swell and surf over the next few days.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-28 075119-1790603514846.png">Stay with us on WeatherNation for the latest updates.

Nolo Moving West; Flooding Still Possible on Kauai

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The newest subtropical system has developed in the Atlantic. Ernesto is now the 5th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. The storm is located a thousand miles west of the Azores and is no threat to land areas. The cyclone is moving slowly north at 8 mph with winds near 40 mph. The storm formed early Wednesday morning when the National Hurricane Center issued their first advisory on the system.

<a href="https://media.weathernationtv.com/local-radar/">Track Ernesto here using the interactive radar map</a>.

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Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours, according to the <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">National Hurricane Center</a>. The system will linger over an area of warm water temperatures and fairly low wind shear conditions. By later Wednesday or early Thursday, the storm is forecast to reach winds near 50 mph.

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After that time, sharply colder waters, drier air, and a significant increase in wind shear should cause the storm to transition to a regular, extratropical low pressure center. The forecast models show the post-tropical system merging with a frontal zone in 3 to 4 days.

For WeatherNation: Meteorologist Mace Michaels

Subtropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the Atlantic

Tropical Storm Isaias Strengthening in the Gulf

On Wednesday morning, Tropical Depression 9 b

Tropical Update: EPAC Remains Active

Pacific BasinThe Pacific Ocean has been incre

Fall Chill Grips the East While Record Heat Bakes the West

A major temperature divide is unfolding acros

Fall Temperatures for the Northeast

A noticeable change in the weather is on the

Plains & Midwest: Slow Moving Storms Increase Flood Threat

WHAT TO EXPECTTropical moisture from the remn

Another Round of Flooding Possible for the Southwest

In the last month, the southwestern states of

Nolo Moving West; Flooding Still Possible on Kauai

Hurricane Nolo spared the Hawaiian Islands fr