WeatherNation Meteorologists

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Heavy rain continues across parts of Central and South Texas for the rest of the weekend. Moisture continues to pile up along the Gulf Coast from an area of low pressure in the Gulf. Luckily, a cold front is heading south to try to dry things out heading into next week. The best chances of rain and storms will be along the immediate coast.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/2026-10-04 04-11-01-1791108693923.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Through Tuesday, Deep South Texas can see rainfall amounts between 3-6" of rain closer to the coast.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-04 041145-1791108721890.png">Right on queue, another MODERATE (level 3 out of 4) risk for flash flooding has been issued in Texas again. This time, well to the south, where the heaviest of the rainfall is expected.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-04 041315-1791108808781.png">Just like for the Southeast, Texas and the rest of the Southern Plains looks very soggy for the long term in the next 7-10 days.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-04 041343-1791108842343.png">For more on this forecast, tune in :30 past the hour for your full Central Regional.

Kevin Schneider

Stalled Front Heightens Flood Risk Today

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Adrian Hernandez

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A noticeable change in the weather is on the way for millions across the Great Lakes and Northeast as some of the coldest air since spring moves into the region.&nbsp;After an unusually warm start to October, a push of Canadian air will send temperatures tumbling over the next several days. The transition could eventually bring the season’s first widespread frost and freeze to portions of the northern United States.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-03 073235-1791034366761.png">Check out how cold the temperatures will be for the Northeast early next week. This cold air could kill temperature sensitive vegetation.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-04 043327-1791110022241.png">The cooldown marks a dramatic change following the recent stretch of unseasonably warm weather across the eastern United States.&nbsp;October is typically when the first freeze becomes increasingly common across the Midwest and Northeast, although the exact timing varies considerably depending on elevation and location.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-03 073713-1791034643040.png">For many across the Great Lakes and Northeast, the upcoming cold snap could provide the clearest sign yet that the warm days of early fall are beginning to fade.&nbsp;Stay Tuned for more details in the Eastern Regional forecast on WeatherNation TV :10 past the hour.

Fall Temperatures for the Northeast

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Record high temperatures are once again in trouble this week out west. Another strong area of high pressure is setting up shop and looks to stick around for much of the upcoming week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-04 060712-1791115842717.jpg">Temperatures have already shattered daily records, but areas like Vista, CA tied an all-time record on Saturday. This dangerous amount of heat will stick around through the middle of the week, when some head advisories and extreme heat warnings will expire.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-04 061329-1791116050573.jpg">It's not just California that is sweating it out this week. Areas in the Rockies will see temperatures approaching 10-15 degrees above normal this time of year. These will threaten records over the next few days as well.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-04 061449-1791116096973.jpg">

Record Heat Returns to the West

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<h1>Pacific Basin</h1>The Pacific Ocean has been incredibly active so far this hurricane season, with no signs of slowing down.<h2>Rachel</h2>Rachel continues to impact the western Mexico coastline, moving west through the weekend. At times, this storm will run into some wind shear and weaken somewhat.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-04 041858-1791109153334.png"><h1>Atlantic Basin</h1>We now have a new area being monitored in the Gulf waters. It's a low chance of development, but with how inactive it has been in the Atlantic Basin this year, we will be watching this closely. Plenty of ensembles and AI models develop something in the Gulf, but it's too early to know what at this juncture. Isiaias is the next name on the list in the Atlantic. Be sure to check back for more tropical updates if you live along or will be traveling to the Gulf Coast over the next week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-04 041934-1791109278759.png"><h1>El Nino Fueling Pacific Activity</h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-04 082933-1791124216732.png">The surge in tropical activity comes as El Nino continues to strengthen across the equatorial Pacific. El Nino is characterized by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures across portions of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Those unusually warm waters can influence weather patterns around the globe while also creating an environment that can favor tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-28 194202-1790646127358.png">This year’s El Nino has already strengthened considerably, and forecasts indicate it could become exceptionally strong later this year.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-12 063433-1789216512410.png">

Tropical Update: EPAC Active; Atlantic clears September with no Hurricanes

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Deep tropical moisture streaming north from the Gulf is combining with an approaching cold front, setting the stage for widespread showers and thunderstorms from the Gulf Coast into the Southeast. Excessive rainfall will be likely over the next few days. Here is the outlook for Sunday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-04 040556-1791108370174.png">Sunday’s greatest flooding concern will focus along portions of the central Gulf Coast, including areas from Louisiana east toward the Florida Panhandle.&nbsp;A tropical wave moving through the Gulf is transporting an unusually moisture-rich air mass toward the coast. Atmospheric moisture levels are expected to reach near-record or record territory for early October in some locations.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 5-1791058490540.png"><h1>Timing</h1>After all the heavy rain throughout the Southeast on Saturday, more heavy rain is on the way for the rest of the weekend. Here is a look at the latest timing for all the showers and storms. Flooding will continue to be a big weather risk through early next week for these areas.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/2026-10-04 04-06-50-1791108435090.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Rainfall totals of 3 to 6+ inches are possible Saturday near parts of the Gulf Coast, with locally higher amounts. While some locations entered the weekend with relatively dry ground, rainfall of that magnitude could still overwhelm drainage systems and produce pockets of flash flooding, especially in urban and low-lying areas.&nbsp;The pattern should begin shifting south by Monday as the front continues moving through the region toward Florida, but flooding concerns will not immediately disappear.&nbsp;Additional heavy rain will continue to be the focus across southeastern Georgia and northern Florida, including areas around Jacksonville. With some locations already receiving significant rainfall over the weekend, additional downpours could cause isolated flooding.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-04 040937-1791108594708.png">The long term forecast keeps the Gulf Coast very soggy into the middle of October. At least the temperatures are cooling off behind these fronts heading into the month of October.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-03 070128-1791032535237.png">Stay tuned to WeatherNation TV for additional details.

Heavy Rain and Flood Threat Along For The Gulf Coast

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Tracey Anthony

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<h2></h2><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2105658995948281901" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2105658995948281901"></div><h2>WHAT TO EXPECT</h2>Tropical moisture from the remnants of Polo and the Gulf have surged north and met a frontal boundary. This has equaled a formula of very heavy rainfall. Flood alerts are in place through Thursday across portions of the plains and Midwest. The soils for this part of the country are already very saturated for many. This means adding more rainfall can lead to flooding of rivers, creeks, and streams, and flash flooding is not out of the question.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 4-1790897782083.png"><h2>TIMING</h2>Rounds of heavy rain will continue on and off. Isolated areas of flooding will be possible. Friday, this low will move east, and we will see drier conditions by the end of the week.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/FORECAST-1790897919777.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h2>TOTALS</h2>Folks can expect very heavy rainfall, with most seeing around 2"- 4". Some localized areas of a half foot will be possible! Never try to drive through floodwaters, and make sure to take any flood alerts and warnings seriously. If you live in an area prone to flooding, make sure to have an action plan in place if flooding develops! <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 5-1790897796211.png"> Make sure to tune into WeatherNation for the latest forecast!

Patrick Crawford

Plains & Midwest: Slow Moving Storms Increase Flood Threat

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Taban Sharifi grew up in Southern California between Los Angeles and San Diego. She is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) with the American Meteorological Society (AMS). She has a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Environmental Sciences with a minor in Environmental Systems and Society from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Go Bruins! While in school, Taban was a meteorology intern with NBC LA. There she helped forecast daily weather for the greater Los Angeles region and created a playbook to deploy weather sensors for NBC owned-and-operated stations across the country. Her first on-air job took her to San Angelo, Texas, where she was a morning meteorologist and co-anchor. Working in West Texas gave her knowledge and experience covering severe storms. From there, she moved to Palm Springs, California. People think forecasting in California is sunshine all the time, but with temperatures in the 120’s, wildfires, damaging winds, floodings, and earthquakes, the forecasting kept her very busy! She also worked there as a general assignment reporter and told community stories. Taban is excited for the challenge and opportunity to forecast nationally with WeatherNation. She also looks forward to exploring all that Colorado has to offer!

Taban Sharifi

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In the last month, the southwestern states of New Mexico and Arizona have seen their fair share of monsoon showers and storms.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2103622200872079365" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2103622200872079365"></div>This week, tropical moisture is pushing across the Southwest and plains. This tropical moisture, from Hurricane Polo, will bring the potential for significant flooding across the region.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/poloooo-1790728785495.png">The flooding has already been seen across the Southwest, including Nevada.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2104753032432910655" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2104753032432910655"></div>A major push of this moisture will continue to move through.. Several more inches on top of what has already come down are expected. This can quickly lead to flash flooding and debris flows, especially over burn scars. The heaviest of the activity, now expected in Colorado and the Central Plains.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-30 054240-1790768613194.png">The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has a moderate (level 3 out of 4) flooding threat in place for portions of Colorado and New Mexico. The flooding threat will taper off by late-week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/overnighssss-1790820790763.png">Make sure to tune into Weathernation for the latest updates on the forecast.

Jackie Brown

Another Round of Flooding Possible for the Southwest

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The newest subtropical system has developed in the Atlantic. Ernesto is now the 5th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. The storm is located a thousand miles west of the Azores and is no threat to land areas. The cyclone is moving slowly north at 8 mph with winds near 40 mph. The storm formed early Wednesday morning when the National Hurricane Center issued their first advisory on the system.

<a href="https://media.weathernationtv.com/local-radar/">Track Ernesto here using the interactive radar map</a>.

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Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours, according to the <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">National Hurricane Center</a>. The system will linger over an area of warm water temperatures and fairly low wind shear conditions. By later Wednesday or early Thursday, the storm is forecast to reach winds near 50 mph.

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After that time, sharply colder waters, drier air, and a significant increase in wind shear should cause the storm to transition to a regular, extratropical low pressure center. The forecast models show the post-tropical system merging with a frontal zone in 3 to 4 days.

For WeatherNation: Meteorologist Mace Michaels

Subtropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the Atlantic

Stalled Front Heightens Flood Risk Today

Heavy rain continues across parts of Central

Fall Temperatures for the Northeast

A noticeable change in the weather is on the

Record Heat Returns to the West

Record high temperatures are once again in tr

Tropical Update: EPAC Active; Atlantic clears September with no Hurricanes

Pacific BasinThe Pacific Ocean has been incre

Heavy Rain and Flood Threat Along For The Gulf Coast

Deep tropical moisture streaming north from t

Plains & Midwest: Slow Moving Storms Increase Flood Threat

WHAT TO EXPECTTropical moisture from the remn

Another Round of Flooding Possible for the Southwest

In the last month, the southwestern states of