Brittany Lockley

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Texas is bracing for several days of active weather, with repeated rounds of severe storms and heavy rainfall expected through the end of the work week. A stalled frontal boundary combined with high moisture levels will keep the atmosphere primed for thunderstorm development, particularly during the afternoons and overnight hours. Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi remain under a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms. Isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are all possible, especially as instability builds across the region.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Day1SVR-1749734125592.png">The setup includes a shortwave trough moving eastward across the Southern Plains, combined with strong southerly flow and very moist surface conditions, dewpoints in the lower to mid-70s. This environment will fuel thunderstorms capable of producing strong winds and hail. There will be moderate to high instability, supporting the potential for organized storm structures such as supercells or bowing line segments.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/2025-06-12 03-51-52-1749721952556.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Flash flooding is a growing concern, particularly across Central and East Texas. Widespread rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are possible, with isolated areas potentially receiving 4 to 6 inches by Friday morning.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-12 034731-1749721662233.png">A MODERATE risk for excessive rainfall remains in place for parts of east-central Texas, including the metro of Houston, where multiple rounds of storms are expected to pass. Downpours could lead to flash flooding, especially in low-lying or already saturated areas.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-12 034759-1749721693191.png">The threat persists on Friday, as a front moves out of the Rockies. For now, there is a Marginal to Slight threat for strong to severe storms in the Texas Panhandle.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-12 034947-1749721806787.png">Stay weather-aware, especially during the late afternoon and nighttime hours. Make sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings and avoid driving through flooded roadways. With severe weather and flooding threats overlapping, Texans should prepare for possible power outages, road closures, and rapidly changing weather conditions.&nbsp;

Patrick Crawford

Severe Storms and Flooding Threaten Texas Late Week

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<h2>Eastern Pacific Ocean</h2>The 2025 Eastern Pacific hurricane season is off to a notably fast start, with three named storms, Alvin, Barbara, and Cosme, forming in less than two weeks since the season officially began on May 15. This level of early activity is well ahead of the seasonal average, which typically sees the first named storm by June 10, the second by June 24, and the third by July 6. The rapid development of these storms marks an unusually active beginning for the Eastern Pacific.The next name for the Eastern Pacific systems after Barbara and Cosme will be Dalila. Currently, this area highlighted in red (above) has a high chance of tropical formation, and is considered an area of investigation, Invest 93E.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-08 212214-1749439355922.png"><h2>Looking Ahead</h2>As we look ahead, the Climate Prediction Center is highlighting a region (below) with low confidence in the formation of a tropical system in the western Caribbean or southwestern Gulf, also known as the Bay of Campeche. This does not indicate a system is expected, so be sure to stay up to date with the 7-Day forecast from the National Hurricane Center.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-11 044338-1749638755094.png">A system in the Gulf or western Atlantic is not unusual in June, which typically has warmer water early in the season compared to the main development region (MDR) in the Atlantic (between the Caribbean and west Africa).The Atlantic hurricane season, which began on June 1, has remained quiet with no named storms forming so far. This lack of activity is being attributed to three key atmospheric factors: persistent wind shear, marginally warm water temperatures, and the presence of Saharan dust. &nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-29 104826-1748537463299.png">The Saharan dust, which often travels westward from Africa, can suppress tropical development by introducing dry, stable air into the atmosphere. In addition, wind shear is disrupting the organization of tropical waves and disturbances, preventing them from developing into more significant systems. While sea surface temperatures are warm enough to support storm formation, they are not as favorable as in recent years, further limiting activity.&nbsp;Unlike the Atlantic, the Eastern Pacific is not affected by Saharan dust, as the dust tends to move northward toward the U.S. before it can interfere with conditions in that region. As a result, the Eastern Pacific remains more conducive to early-season development. In fact, forecasters are currently monitoring the region for another potential tropical cyclone, which has a high chance of forming within the next seven days.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/2025-06-12 07-53-52-1749736457998.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Although the Atlantic is off to a slow start, this is not unusual for early June. Historically, tropical activity in the Atlantic does not typically ramp up until later in the summer, particularly in August and September, with the peak occurring around the 15th of September.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot 2025-05-29 104849-1748537876634.png">For now, the quiet beginning to the season is considered perfectly normal.&nbsp;The early season will more often see more tropical storms than hurricanes, but hurricanes can form and impact the United States, so it's <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/hurricane-prep-week-2025">always best to be prepared</a>. Andrea is the first name on the list in the Atlantic in 2025.NOAA and Colorado State are expecting an above-average season in the Atlantic Basin. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/noaa-predicts-above-average-2025-hurricane-season">Click here to read more.</a>

Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season off to a Fast Start, Atlantic Remains Quiet

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Kevin Schneider

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Okay. Explanation needed. Dr. Jim is the only father at WeatherNation. That's why I chose to jar you, the reader, with his headshot. Capeesh? Alright, let's get into that forecast for dad! Here's what we're looking at for highs on Sunday<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-11 105943-1749661191725.png"><h1>SWEATY DADS</h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-11 152930-1749677376702.png">As a ridge of high pressure builds in the desert southwest, temperatures have started soaring. By Saturday and Sunday, areas like Phoenix will top out beyond 110°, prompting heat alerts. While this likely won't threaten any record highs for the area, it is still the hottest temperatures we've seen. Make sure dad's drinking water early and often!<h1>TOUGH TIME LIGHTING THE GRILL</h1>It's a little difficult to get the details down 5 days ahead of time, but it helps to monitor trends. So far, the Northeast, Midwest, Southern Plains, and Southeast are looking at solid rain chances. In the coming days, check back in as we narrow down who might see afternoon vs morning rain.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-11 105142-1749660799191.png">Of course, the Northeast is used to this, so they assumed this was going to happen I'm sure. Syracuse hasn't seen a weekend yet in 2025 that hasn't had at least a trace of precip.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-11 105535-1749660945836.png"><h1>US OPEN</h1>A big tradition with Father's Day weekend is the U.S. Open, often thought of as the hardest major golf tournament. With the way the forecast is shaping up, it could be tougher than normal - with good chances for rain Saturday and Sunday, there's a chance the tourney lasts into Monday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/2025-06-1110-31-23-ezgif.com-video-to-gif-converter-1749660547205.gif">

FATHER'S DAY WEEKEND: Looking Ahead to the Forecast

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WeatherNation Meteorologists

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An upper-level ridge of high pressure has been responsible for record-breaking highs across the northwest over the recent days. Many records were set on Monday and again on Tuesday. The above-average temperatures have helped fuel strong storms across the Northwest. In Idaho there were observed wind gusts over 70 mph.<h3>SEVERE THREAT</h3>Thursday, there is a marginal risk for severe storms across Wyoming, South Dakota, and Nebraska. Damaging winds and hail will be the primary concern.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-12 075637-1749736612912.png">There will be another round of storms on Friday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-12 075709-1749736643021.png">FORECAST TIMINGExpect rounds of storms over the next few days, with another severe threat on Friday.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/2025-06-12 07-57-56-1749736717904.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>There will be concerns for isolated flooding for the rest of the day. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has a Marginal (level 1 out of 4) risk for flooding on Friday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-12 075736-1749736667689.png">More details on the northwest can always be found :50 past the hour during your Western Regional Forecast.

Northwest: From Heatwave to Thunderstorms

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JUNE 11, 2025The folks at Colorado State planned on updating the outlook today and they did - no changes. They're still expecting a ENSO neutral regime to persist through the Hurricane Season. That, with above average sea surface temperatures (but not as hot as last year) should still point to a busy season. Their next update to the outlook is scheduled for July 9, with another adjustment August 6. APRIL 3, 2025Today, meteorologists and research scientists at <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html">Colorado State University (CSU)</a> have released their outlook for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Dr. Phil Klotzbach and the Tropical Meteorology Project at CSU are among the first to issue an outlook for the season. Early predictions expect this year's hurricane season to be busier than average. This year they anticipate 17 named storms, 9 of which will become hurricanes and 4 of those are expected to become major hurricanes (CAT 3 or greater).<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/NpwxsMmHDIU" start="0"></iframe></div>Forecast factors that contributed to their above average outlook focus on the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and sea surface temperatures. In the coming months, a transition to ENSO neutral is expected. That usually does not give a strong single for an above or below average season. However, by the end of the summer into early fall (climatological peak of hurricane season), a potential transition to La Nina is forecast. There is not much certainty on the likelihood or intensity of that La Nina transition, though. Nonetheless, an absence of El Nino which traditionally suppresses hurricane activity is enough to warrant an above average forecast.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/04/Screenshot 2025-04-03 081623-1743689797271.png">Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic remain above average this year. SSTs are not as warm as last year's historic levels, but remain warm enough to fuel storm development later in the season.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1907795220374188228" src="https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1907795220374188228"></div>

Jackie Brown

CSU Updates Their Tropical Outlook

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Originally born in Spokane, Washington,  Jackie's Dad was in the Air Force which led her to a life of travel. She has lived in Wichita, Okinawa, Japan, Baltimore, New Jersey, Indiana and South Carolina.  After graduating from Kadena High School, in Okinawa Japan, she got a full basketball scholarship to Coppin State College. On the court she was a 4-year starter and reached over 1000 points in her basketball career. She was also named Athlete of the Year for the whole university in 2002. Off the court, she earned a degree in Broadcast Production/English.

After college, she landed a job as a radio personality. Jackie went on to have a successful career for 12 years working at KXLY broadcast center. While on the radio, she decided to change career. Jackie went back to school, graduating from the Mississippi State Meteorology Broadcast Program. From snow, to tornadoes, to hurricanes, she has had experience forecasting all these events.

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Heavy rain has been no stranger in the south. With ample moisture and a frontal boundary, heavy rain and strong storms have been persistent these last few days. As we look into the overnight hours, a few strong storms will be possible, but most should remain dry. A Marginal threat continues across portions of the Gulf Coast with damaging winds and hail being the primary concern.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/overnightt stotto-1749605891333.png">The models are struggling to show convection, forecasting little to no rain, if any storms get going, they have the chance to be severe.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/overnighf-1749602614247.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>An isolated threat of flooding will continue along with the storms.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-10 154657-1749592021450.png">For more details on how this could impact temperatures and wildfire smoke, be sure to tune into WeatherNation at :10 past the hour.

Alana Cameron

Isolated Severe Threat for the Gulf Overnight

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We saw an active day yesterday across the southeast with severe storms bringing damaging winds and hail. Some portions across the southeast also experienced significant rainfall. Century, Florida saw 3.67" of rain in the last 24 hours. We have another round of strong storms today, as a boundary lingers.<h1>TODAY</h1>More severe weather is possible with clusters of storms moving from the Southern Plains back into the Deep South. The primary threats will be damaging winds and hail.<h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/severe todayyyaaa-1749574967584.png">TIMING</h1>Some storms have developed, and throughout the day, we can see more activity. As the cold front moves offshore, we can see storm chances decrease for areas like the Carolinas.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/jfjfjfjfjfjfjfjfrrrrr-1749575086829.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Rainfall</h1>Heavy rainfall remains a critical concern, with hourly rates surpassing one inch in many areas. This raises the alarm for flash flooding, especially in urban centers and low-lying zones with poor drainage. Not to mention the plentiful rain we've seen in days past. Any pockets of 2-3 inches of rain will lead to flooding issues.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot 2025-06-10 071612-1749561380826.png">

Severe Storms Possible Again Today in the Southeast

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<img class="alignnone wp-image-89169" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/03/Fire-Outlook.jpg" alt="" width="635" height="357" />

Fire alerts are in place from west Texas to Colorado and Kansas today as temperatures soar into the 70s, 80s and low 90s on Thursday and Friday.

Very dry and breezy conditions are also expected across these areas over the next two day, elevating the fire concerns, especially for Friday.

Outdoor fire burning is not recommended.

<img class="alignnone wp-image-89170" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/03/Red-Flag-Alerts.jpg" alt="" width="636" height="358" />

For WeatherNation, I am <a href="http://www.twitter.com/marcusdwalter" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Meteorologist Marcus Walter</a>.

Fire Concerns Once Again From Texas to Colorado

Severe Storms and Flooding Threaten Texas Late Week

Texas is bracing for several days of active w

Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season off to a Fast Start, Atlantic Remains Quiet

Eastern Pacific OceanThe 2025 Eastern Pacific

FATHER'S DAY WEEKEND: Looking Ahead to the Forecast

Okay. Explanation needed. Dr. Jim is the only

Northwest: From Heatwave to Thunderstorms

An upper-level ridge of high pressure has bee

CSU Updates Their Tropical Outlook

JUNE 11, 2025The folks at Colorado State plan

Isolated Severe Threat for the Gulf Overnight

Heavy rain has been no stranger in the south.

Severe Storms Possible Again Today in the Southeast

We saw an active day yesterday across the sou