HURRICANE SEASON IS HERE!

The Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1 to November 30. Join WeatherNation as we help you know your risk, get your plan together and better understand the science behind tropical systems.

Whether you live on the coastline or inland, it is important to know your risks when it comes to tropical systems.  Coastal communities are most at risk of destructive winds, dangerous storm surge, and may have to evacuate. But, even people hundreds of miles inland are still at risk, with the threat of high winds, flooding rainfall, severe weather & tornadoes. Even after the storm passes, the lasting threat of flooding and power outages could occur days or weeks after a storm hits.

Though Hurricane Melissa became one of the strongest hurricanes to ever make landfall in the basin, it was the first time in a decade that no hurricanes made landfall in the U.S. That doesn't mean we were without impacts. Let's take a look back:

WHAT'S THE FORECAST THIS SEASON? NOAA has released their predictions for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. They are calling for a below normal season with 8-14 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes, and 1-3 major hurricanes. For probability, they predict a 35% chance of a near-normal season, a 10% chance of an above-normal season, and a 55% chance of a below-normal season.

NOAA sites several factors in their forecast, including the burgeoning El Ni­­ño, and possible Super Ni­­ño, shaping up in the tropical Pacific. The expectation for an El Ni­­ño event during the peak of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane season is a big factor in keeping numbers lower than previous years, along with near normal sea surface temperatures, which have been much above average in recent seasons.

Why does El Ni­­ño typically reduce hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin? The warmer water in the equatorial pacific often leads to a more energetic sub-tropical jet, leading to stronger winds in the upper-atmosphere over the Caribbean. Surface winds in the Caribbean most often comes from the east, known as the trade winds. When these winds lay under strong winds from the opposite (or even the same direction), it leads to strong wind shear which tears hurricanes apart.

Forecasters at Colorado State University also predicted a below average season. Hear their reasoning:

While seasonal outlooks give us some idea of what to expect, there is no way to know for certain just what the season will have in store for YOUR area.  Seasonal outlooks cannot forecast exactly when, where, or if storm will strike. Even below average seasons can have major impacts. All it takes is one storm making landfall for it to be a devastating season in the U.S.

In preparation for the upcoming season, NOAA's National Hurricane Center is incorporating new tools and processes to keep the public better informed. Here's what's new this season:

PREPARE AT HOME

GET YOUR SUPPLY KIT READY Once your know your risks, you should put together an essential hurricane supply kit. There are two types of "kits" you should put together: one if you're sheltering at your home during a storm, and one that you can grab and go should you need to evacuate. Get your supplies ready to shelter at home Click here for a full list of essentials from FEMA 

Additional Helpful Tips: 

• Learn much more and get storm ready by visiting Ready.Gov/Hurricanes

• Make sure your home is Hurricane Ready with IBHS

• Check your insurance coverage. If you are uninsured, apply BEFORE a storm threatens, as it may be too late if you wait

• Sign up for emergency alerts with your local county, city, or town to ensure you are receiving the most up to date information before and during a storm.

• Talk through your emergency plan with your family ahead of hurricane season

• Understand tropical weather terminology

ABOUT THE SCIENCE

We get it. There's A LOT of jargon, phrases, and information that can make understanding tropical cyclones difficult. Understanding the basics may help when a storm threatens.

WATCHES VS. WARNINGS Do you know the difference between a watch and a warning? What about all of the alerts issued during tropical season? Whenever a tropical cyclone (a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane) or a subtropical storm has formed in the Atlantic or eastern North Pacific, the NOAA National Hurricane Center (NHC) issues tropical cyclone advisory products at least every 6 hours at 5 am, 11 am, 5 pm, and 11 pm EDT. A WATCH is issued when hurricane, tropical storm or storm surge conditions are expected within 48 hours. A WARNING is issued when life-threatening conditions are expected within 36 hours.

WHAT IS THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE? The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating based on a hurricane's sustained wind speed, with 5 being the highest. This scale estimates potential property damage. Hurricanes reaching Category 3 and higher are considered major hurricanes because of their potential for significant loss of life and damage. Category 1 and 2 storms are still dangerous, however, and require preventative measures.  (Source: NHC)

When a tropical system reaches winds of 39mph or greater, it's given a name to better track and communicate its risks. The 2026 name list may look a little familiar. Here's why:

UNDERSTANDING THE FORECAST "CONE" Listening to forecast details can mean the difference between being prepared and caught off guard. Before a storm strikes, you'll often see a forecast "cone" to represent the expected forecast track of a system. The forecast cone represents the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone. The width of the cone is based on historical forecast error percentage and uncertainty in the forecast. In 2024, NHC released an experimental version of the cone to not just communicate the center track, but to also show the widespread nature of potential impacts. They plan to fine tune and continue to use this concurrently until it becomes the primary forecast.

WHAT PART OF A HURRICANE IS THE MOST POWERFUL? When a hurricane threatens landfall, most often the most impacts will be felt on the "front right quadrant" in relation to the direction of movement. Impacts can and will be felt on all "sides" of a storm, but the threat of highest winds, storm surge, and indirect impacts, such as tornadoes, are often increased in the front right quadrant.

LIVE INLAND? YOU AREN'T IMMUNE TO HURRICANES! Even if you live nowhere near a coastline, impacts from tropical systems can still occur. This lesson was learned during Hurricane Helene with historic, catastrophic flooding as far north as North Carolina. Inland rain and water are the deadliest parts of Tropical Storms and the impacts can spread far away from the immediate coastline.

UNDERSTANDING STORM SURGE Along the coast, storm surge is often the greatest threat to life and property from a hurricane.  Storm surge has come along with some of the most powerful storms in history.

Still have questions? Be sure to watch Hurricane Prep Week on WeatherNation, or get in touch with us on Facebook or X. Or, as always, you can watch LIVE on YouTube!