Kevin Schneider

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<p>In the Atlantic basin, we are keeping a very close eye on the Eastern Gulf. In the Pacific, Elida continues to churn amongst two other areas with potential to develop.</p><h1>Atlantic</h1><p><strong>Tropical Depression Two</strong> officially formed on Sunday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). This system is expected to move west-northwest over the next day or two before making landfall. <em>The question is where</em>. It depends on exactly where the center of circulation is and how strong the system gets. A stronger system will feel a stronger westward pull, potentially keeping it out over open waters for longer. A weaker one will find the Alabama or Florida coastline a little quicker. No matter what happens with this energy, there will likely be heavy rain and coastal impacts to the Gulf Coast States.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-19 084840-1784472528359.png">There are <strong>Tropical Storm Watches</strong> in effect along the Florida Panhandle and into the Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana coastline with the potential of tropical storm conditions as this system strengthens.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-20 134019-1784576471793.png"></p><p>There is a lot of dry air around, which should keep a pretty firm lid on what becomes of this tropical cyclone. The expectation is that whatever develops will drift westward, potentially making landfall as far west as Texas or Louisiana. A lot will depend on where the circulation fully develops, so there is considerable uncertainty. At this point anyone along the Gulf Coast should be paying attention to this system. Below is the intensity model forecast. The center blue line is what is anticipated by the National Hurricane Center. Most models indicate a strengthening to tropical storm strength but keep the storm below hurricane strength.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-20 134235-1784576561950.png">The forecast cone is pretty compressed, but it's important to note that the National Hurricane Center keeps this system over water by Wednesday morning. That should give Tropical Depression Two a chance to strengthen a bit.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/07-20 td two fan-1784576506442.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Pacific</h1><h2>ELIDA</h2><p><strong>Elida</strong> had its last advisory issued on Monday morning, but the remnants of this system could bring high surf and waves to the southern California Coast. High Surf Alerts have been issued through tomorrow.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-20 134316-1784576617794.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-20 134312-1784576622446.png"></p><p>There are a few other areas we are monitoring in the Eastern Pacific. <strong>Tropical Storm Fausto </strong>has officially formed, along with another area behind Fausto that has a medium chance of tropical development in the next 7 days.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-20 134259-1784576626854.png"></p><p>Fausto is expected to strengthen to a hurricane this week as it moves westward. Way too soon to tell if it's going to have any effect on the Hawaiian islands.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-20 134357-1784576641753.png"></p>

Alana Cameron

Tropics: TD Two Organizing in the Gulf, Eastern Pacific Active

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Taban Sharifi grew up in Southern California between Los Angeles and San Diego. She is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) with the American Meteorological Society (AMS). She has a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Environmental Sciences with a minor in Environmental Systems and Society from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Go Bruins! While in school, Taban was a meteorology intern with NBC LA. There she helped forecast daily weather for the greater Los Angeles region and created a playbook to deploy weather sensors for NBC owned-and-operated stations across the country. Her first on-air job took her to San Angelo, Texas, where she was a morning meteorologist and co-anchor. Working in West Texas gave her knowledge and experience covering severe storms. From there, she moved to Palm Springs, California. People think forecasting in California is sunshine all the time, but with temperatures in the 120’s, wildfires, damaging winds, floodings, and earthquakes, the forecasting kept her very busy! She also worked there as a general assignment reporter and told community stories. Taban is excited for the challenge and opportunity to forecast nationally with WeatherNation. She also looks forward to exploring all that Colorado has to offer!

Taban Sharifi

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<p>The upper level low train continues to keep the weather pattern active for the Midwest. As the next cold front slides in, severe weather will be in the cards again today, like what we saw Sunday (above). Ahead of the front, temperatures are expected to soar into the 90s and the added moisture will make the environment ripe for severe weather, especially on Monday! Significant winds could be the primary threat through tonight.</p><h1>Severe Outlook</h1><p>The outlook is already highlighted as an <strong>Enhanced</strong> risk for severe weather through tonight. Chicago is under a <strong>Slight</strong> risk. The biggest concern will be damaging winds, but large hail and a few tornadoes will all be possible as well.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-20 134659-1784576854174.png">Some storms could be packing a significant punch. Hen-egg sized hail and hurricane-force wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. Some storms will have a chance to drop a strong tornado as well.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-20 134708-1784576860170.png"></p><h1>Forecast Timing</h1><p>Today will be similar to Sunday with the timing of the thunderstorms. However, more heat and stronger jet stream winds will take the severe threat up another level. Tonight, a complex of severe storms could be blasting through cities like Chicago, Davenport, Des Moines, and others with very strong winds.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/hrrr latest-1784576866292.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>More on your Central Regional Forecast can be found :30 past the hour on WeatherNation.</p>

Another Round of Severe Weather for the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes

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<p>Wildfires burning in Northwestern Ontario, Canada, and northern Minnesota have been producing smoke, and upper-level winds in the atmosphere have been carrying that smoke into the Great Lakes, Midwest, and Northeast. Air quality has improved, but another mild push of smoke is moving through the region today ahead of another front. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-19 064723-1784458061933.png">Air quality is still poor enough to lead to air quality alerts today, but there is some hope on the horizon. Another front is dropping through, which should bring some rain, but most importantly, this rain could clear out some of the wildfire smoke. However, there is also the risk that is draws in more wildfire smoke. Our models have the outcome of conditions clearing.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/smoke and cat precip-1784576988880.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>Alerts remain in place across the Great Lakes region and Midwest.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-20 134842-1784576951816.png"></p><h1><strong><span style="color: black">How Smoke from Wildfires Can Impact Breathing</span></strong></h1><div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/GIU_Kz5gPzI" start="0"></iframe></div><p>“We know that air pollution in general can really trigger a number of health issues, including simple things that we think about like asthma or COPD, but they can actually also trigger cardiovascular events. And smoke from wildfires is no exception,” said Samuel Gurevich, MD, pulmonologist at Cleveland Clinic. “They actually put into the air a lot of what we call particulate matter, which are these very, very fine particles of dust and other organic matter that then can easily be breathed in and can irritate the airways or even be absorbed into the bloodstream.”</p><p>Dr. Gurevich said other groups that could be affected by the wildfire smoke include children with hard to control asthma, women who are pregnant, and people with pre-existing heart conditions.</p><p>So, what can they do to help stay safe? He recommends checking the air quality for your city before going out for the day. That information can be found online or within many weather apps. If the air quality is bad, it’s best to stay inside.</p><div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/42cqyxmedcE" start="0"></iframe></div><p>“Make sure your windows are closed and your air conditioning is on. HEPA filters do a reasonably good job, as well, if you have access to that. Those are all those things you should be prepared with. And if you do already have a diagnosis of a respiratory illness like asthma, COPD, or emphysema, have a rescue plan in place,” he said.</p><p>Dr. Gurevich said if you do have to go outside, try to make it as quick as possible. You could also wear an N95 mask. Anyone experiencing shortness of breath or worsening symptoms should seek medical attention right away.&nbsp;</p><p></p>

Air Quality Improvements in the Forecast

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Alana Cameron was born and raised in Canada in the city of Mississauga, just outside of Toronto. Alana is the oldest of 4 siblings, all close in age, and grew up playing outside with them in all types of weather. After graduating high school, Alana moved to study at the University of British Columbia in Kelowna for a year before transferring to Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia where she completed a Bachelor of Science in Physics and Atmospheric Science. Upon completion, Alana moved back to Toronto where she completed a post-grad degree in Meteorology at York University. After her post-grad, she went on to complete another post-grad in Broadcast Journalism - TV News at Fanshawe College in London, Ontario. During her final year of studies she had the privilege of interning with the best in the business in Canada at The Weather Network. Once she finished her internship, she got the call from small-town Denison, Texas where she accepted a job as an on-air meteorologist at KTEN-TV, right in tornado alley, covering severe weather from Sherman/Denison (North Texas) to Ada (Southern Oklahoma). After the most active tornado season Oklahoma had seen in May 2019 (105 tornadoes!) Alana is excited to join WeatherNation to cover weather all across the nation. If you're interested in following her on social media she can be found @alanacameronwx!

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<p>A slow-moving front has one more day's worth of storms in it before departing. Similar to Sunday, storms this afternoon will primarily be capable of producing straight-line winds.</p><h1>Timing</h1><p>Storms will take aim at any outdoor plans in the afternoon to evening timeframe. A few could linger overnight, but the severe threat will be slowing down.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/07-20 dacrolinas-1784576747509.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>An excessive rainfall outlook is at a level 2, <strong>SLIGHT,</strong> risk across North Carolina and Virginia through tonight. Some parts of the Tar Heel State could pick up 3-4 inches of rainfall by tomorrow morning. If that falls fast enough, flooding will be expected. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-20 071846-1784553537100.png"></p>

Severe Storm Threat Continues for North Carolina

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<p>Another cold front is dropping east and will plow into warm and humid air. That will be the focus for severe chances on Tuesday and Wednesday. This comes only a few days after storms raged through the area to kick off the weekend.</p><p></p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2078640402845114541" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2078640402845114541?s=20"></div><p>As the heat continues to build, any storms that enters will tap into that energy. Tuesday, the Storm Prediction Center has already issued an <strong>Enhanced</strong> risk for severe weather (above). All modes of severe storms look to be on the table, including a few tornadoes. Damaging winds will be the most widespread issue, however.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-20 133654-1784576236770.png">Timing will favor the afternoon and evening, but a few storms could maintain their severity overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/07-19_rne bams tue wed-1784487949634.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>The SPC has also issued a risk for Wednesday for severe thunderstorms. The safest bet will be in the Mid-Atlantic states, but even New England might pick up a severe storm or two Wednesday.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-20 121605-1784571369357.png">A growing concern is the amount of rainfall coming down after record amounts in the northeast. With multiple opportunities for storms, some could see too much too fast, leading to a flooding threat as well. Look at where the bull's eye is showing up on the most recent model run. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-20 071420-1784553272553.png">The Philadelphia area has also now been put under a flood watch in anticipation of this rainfall.</p><p>While it's not a daunting as Sunday's model output, they're still point to more than enough to cause problems.</p>

Another Round of Storms Targets the Northeast

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Brittany Lockley

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<p style="text-align: start"><span style="color: inherit">The monsoon has returned to the southwestern United States. This shift in the overall weather pattern is allowing deeper moisture to move north from the Pacific and Gulf, setting the stage for a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms across parts of Arizona, New Mexico, southern Utah, southern Colorado, and Nevada.</span></p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2076713264898363668" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2076713264898363668"></div><p style="text-align: start"><span style="color: inherit">The North American monsoon is a seasonal wind shift that occurs each summer, transporting moisture from the eastern Pacific Ocean and Gulf of California into the Desert Southwest. As the moist air combines with intense daytime heating and mountainous terrain, thunderstorms become much more common during the afternoon and evening hours.</span></p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/FORECAST-1784415308949.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p style="text-align: start"><span style="color: inherit">This surge of monsoonal moisture is expected to increase storm coverage through the coming days. While many of these storms will produce beneficial rainfall for areas experiencing drought, they will also be capable of dropping heavy rain over a short period of time. Because the Southwest’s dry soils do not absorb water efficiently, runoff can develop quickly, creating a heightened risk of flash flooding in washes, slot canyons, and other low-lying locations.</span></p><p style="text-align: start"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-18 064529-1784371545620.png"></p><p style="text-align: start"><span style="color: inherit">As the monsoon continues to strengthen through July, residents and visitors across the Southwest should be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions each afternoon. Even short-lived storms can produce dangerous flash flooding, making it important to avoid flooded roadways and never enter fast-moving water.</span></p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/BARON 5-1784425522678.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Jesse Kelley

Monsoon Moisture Brings Weekend Flood Threat

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<p><strong>TEXAS HILL COUNTRY - </strong>Life-threatening flooding has been hitting portions of the Edwards Plateau and Texas Hill Country the last several days, amounting to rainfall totals around 2 feet for the region.</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2077800429061320714" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2077800429061320714"></div><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/1-1784327638898.png"></p><p>The result of this flooding has caused rivers to crest at major flood stage, including the Cibolo Creek in Boerne on Wednesday, which reached a record crest at 22.63 feet. The previous highest was 19.83 feet in May 2015. <br><br>Thursday morning saw a huge jump on the Guadalupe River at Comfort, the same gauge that jumped over 30 feet in an hour on July 4th, 2025. It crested higher in 2026 than in 2025, reaching 37.08', as flash flood emergencies were issued again for Kerrville and the Guadalupe.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-16 114810-1784224123095.png"><br><br></p><h2>What's causing all the rain?</h2><p>A moisture-rich weather pattern has brought multiple rounds of thunderstorms over many of the same locations. The unsettled pattern has been fueled by a persistent flow of tropical moisture from the Gulf, combined with weak steering currents in the atmosphere. Because winds aloft are relatively light, thunderstorms will move slowly and may repeatedly track over the same areas. This process, <em>known as training</em>, can produce excessive rainfall totals in a short period of time and quickly overwhelm creeks, rivers, and drainage systems.<span style="color: rgb(36, 36, 36)">&nbsp;</span></p><div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/6rhkLNupAVQ" start="0"></iframe></div><h3>Who is most vulnerable?</h3><p>Some of the greatest concerns remain focused on the Texas Hill Country, where steep terrain and fast-responding waterways make the region especially susceptible to flash flooding. Even a few hours of intense rainfall can cause water levels to rise rapidly, creating dangerous conditions for motorists and residents near streams and low-water crossings. Locations that have already received recent rainfall will be more vulnerable because saturated soils have a reduced ability to absorb additional water.<span style="color: rgb(36, 36, 36)">&nbsp;</span></p><h2>Forecast, Alerts, and Outlooks</h2><p><strong>Flood Watches</strong> will expire this evening across Texas. However, scattered storms are in the forecast for tonight and for Saturday. Thankfully, the flood risk will decrease for the weekend. However, the grounds in Texas are so saturated and it will not take much from pop shower or storm to cause some flooding issues even if it is minor. It is important to remember TURN AROUND AND DON'T DROWN.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/1-1784327892697.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/1-1784327916378.png"></p><p>As the flooding threat is ending, the heat is expected to ramp up heading into next week. Something to keep in mind as residents continue to clean up after the catastrophic flooding. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/1-1784328009272.png"></p><p></p><p>For more info on this forecast, you can tune into the Central Regional Forecast at :30 past the hour.</p>

Patrick Crawford

After Historic Flooding, Flood Risk Moves West Saturday

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The risk for severe storms will be very isolated, but some damaging winds and hail can't be ruled out. Here is the latest severe weather forecast.
<h1>Severe Outlook</h1>
A marginal risk (level 1) of severe storms has been placed over the east Texas throughout the day today and into the overnight hours. This means isolated storms capable of damaging winds and large hail will be possible.

&nbsp;
<h1>Severe Region</h1>
The main threats with these storms will be damaging winds and small hail. The tornado threat will be minimal in these areas.

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&nbsp;
<h1>Forecast</h1>
Storms are ongoing from the overnight hours. Flash flooding is still the highest threat of all today. The storms look to become more linear as the afternoon progresses creating a elevated wind threat.

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&nbsp;

The storms will have enough lift to last into the overnight hours along the I-10 corridor. Frequent lightning is likely as these storms move south tonight.

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An area of low pressure develops along the current cold front so the storms never lose stamina into Tuesday morning. There could still be intensity to these as the morning commute is underway.

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<h1>Accumulation</h1>
The storms along the current cold front have had a history of producing 2.5" - 5" of rain during a 24 hour period. More of this torrential accumulation is possible in isolated locations in and around the severe risk area today.  Most totals over the next 24 hours will be up to 2" but localized areas could see more:

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Stay with WeatherNation for all the latest on the severe potential.

Isolated Severe Storms for the Southern Plains

Severe Outlook

Severe Region

Forecast

Accumulation

Tropics: TD Two Organizing in the Gulf, Eastern Pacific Active

In the Atlantic basin, we are keeping a very

Another Round of Severe Weather for the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes

The upper level low train continues to keep t

Air Quality Improvements in the Forecast

Wildfires burning in Northwestern Ontario, Ca

Severe Storm Threat Continues for North Carolina

A slow-moving front has one more day's worth

Another Round of Storms Targets the Northeast

Another cold front is dropping east and will

Monsoon Moisture Brings Weekend Flood Threat

The monsoon has returned to the southwestern

After Historic Flooding, Flood Risk Moves West Saturday

TEXAS HILL COUNTRY - Life-threatening floodin