Brittany Lockley

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A changing weather pattern will bring several rounds of thunderstorms, heavy rain, and cooler temperatures to the northern half of the country through Friday, the weekend, and into early next week.&nbsp;Several cold fronts are poised to move across the Upper Midwest Friday into the weekend. Warmth and moisture ahead of the approaching systems will help thunderstorms develop, with some storms becoming strong to severe.&nbsp;Severe weather and flash flooding will be possible with the storms.The main hazards from the strongest thunderstorms will be tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail. Storms could become more widespread during the afternoon and evening hours as instability builds across the region.&nbsp;<h1>FRIDAY- SATURDAY</h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-11 072927-1789133382315.png">The first cold front arrives on Friday, bringing all severe weather modes. The primary threats will be damaging winds and large hail that could be larger than egg-sized hail. Models are showing the best chance for storms will come across the Arrowhead of Minnesota.Saturday, the severe threat slides south along the Interstate 70 and 80 corridor. The timing of the severe storms will be Saturday morning into the afternoon hours. The main threats will be wind and hail.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/1-1789164876630.png"><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/BARON 5-1789165031486.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>SUNDAY-MONDAY</h1><h1>A new low develops along Saturday's stalled front and more strong to severe storms will be possible Sunday and Monday. Severe outlooks are now out for both days. Following the front, temperatures are expected to cool down some heading into next week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/1-1789165101988.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-11 073258-1789133593312.png">Repeated Storms Could Lead to Flooding&nbsp;</h1>Along with the severe weather potential, heavy rain will become an increasing concern.&nbsp;Several rounds of rain and thunderstorms are expected to cross portions of the central and northern Plains and Midwest. Because storms may move across the same locations more than once, rainfall could quickly add up in some communities.&nbsp;A broad area could receive several inches of rain through early next week, with locally higher totals possible where the heaviest thunderstorms repeatedly develop. The greatest flooding concern will be in locations that receive multiple rounds of heavy rain over a relatively short period.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/1-1789165157645.png"><h1>Cooler Air Follows the Storms&nbsp;</h1>A noticeable change in temperatures will accompany the unsettled weather.&nbsp;Cooler air dropping south from Canada will spread into parts of the northern and western United States behind the passing fronts. Some cities could see temperatures fall well below what is typical for mid-September.&nbsp;The biggest temperature changes are expected across portions of the Northwest and Rockies, where the incoming air mass will deliver a much more fall-like feel. At the highest elevations, temperatures could become cold enough for some wintry precipitation.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-11 073714-1789133844812.png">Meanwhile, warmer conditions will remain farther south and east, creating a significant temperature contrast across the country.&nbsp;The active stretch of weather highlights the seasonal transition underway across the northern United States. As stronger fronts begin moving across the country more frequently, periods of late-summer warmth will increasingly be interrupted by cooler air and stronger storm systems.&nbsp;Stay with WeatherNation for the latest forecast, severe weather alerts and updates throughout the weekend.&nbsp;

Jesse Kelley

Active Pattern Takes Shape Across the Upper Midwest

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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For the first time in the satellite era (since 1966), no hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic Basin to date, breaking the record for the latest date in the season. Two seasons previously held the record, with both Gustav (2002) and Humberto (2013) becoming the first hurricanes of their respective seasons at 8 am on September 11th. For the real nerds and weather historians out there, 1907 and 1914 did not have hurricanes either, but records in these years relied on observations from ships in the ocean or if a hurricane made landfall. Hurricanes could have formed in these years, but may have been missed due to a lack of satellites.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2098422798066798906" src="https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/2098422798066798906"></div><h1>Current &amp; Mid-Range Outlooks</h1>Signs point to low activity in the Atlantic persisting for the foreseeable future. Record breaking wind shear continues to tear up tropical waves that are able to wiggle between rounds of Saharan dust.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-10 124846-1789066365230.png">While the next 7 days continue to point to no activity, September is typically the busiest month of the season, so don't count it out. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is highlighting the potential for tropical development in the Western Atlantic, between the Bahamas and Bermuda, toward the last week of September. Right now confidence is low, but that may change.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-10 124903-1789066421772.png">While there have been five named storms to date, they've all been tropical storms, producing limited energy. ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) measures total energy released by tropical cyclones and can be a good way to compare seasonal activity. So far, the Atlantic has produced less than 10% of its average ACE, while the Pacific has been nearly doubling what's expected.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-10 125042-1789067515540.png"><h1>El Niño Continues to Crush Atlantic Activity, Set To Break Records</h1>It's not surprising the Atlantic has been quiet while activity in the Pacific has been exploding. El Niño conitnues to break records and is expected to be the strongest on record as it peaks from the fall into the winter. El Niño is a global weather pattern, characterized by a shift in wind direction which pushes warm water east across the equator toward South America. These warmer water temperatures fuel tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific, but the warm water also alters the behavior of trade winds in the Atlantic. The increased wind shear from the trades often tears apart tropical systems as they try to get organized.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-10 125101-1789066389882.png">El Niño is expected to continue to intensify through the end of hurricane season, with a gradual wind down through the late winter and spring months. This should continue to limit tropical activity in the Atlantic, but that doesn't mean additional systems can't form and hit the United States. Remember, while wind shear increases over most of the Atlantic during strong El Niño events, the Gulf and western Atlantic (off the east coast of the US) can have less shear, leading to a better chance of systems forming closer to the coast. We've already experienced that several times this season with tropical storms.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-10 124853-1789066432246.png">

Atlantic Breaks Record For Latest First Hurricane

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Storms will continue to track through the Eastern United States through the end of the week, with some lingering into the weekend as a frontal boundary and low-pressure system move through. Isolated severe storms are possible, along with heavy rainfall rates that could lead to flash flooding.<h1>Tonight - Sunday</h1>The low-pressure system dropping through the Plains Thursday will kick east tonight into Saturday, bringing another round of rain and storms. Storms look to target the Southeast and Mid-South on Friday with gusty winds and heavy rain.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/PIC 4-1789159003987.png">These storms will lift to the northeast on Saturday, bringing heavy rain back to Ohio and Pennsylvania, while storms will continue to move through the South.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/FORECAST-1789159107751.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Rainfall totals look impressive where several rounds of rain possible. Some regions could see 2-3 inches widespread, with 4-5 inch totals possible in smaller areas.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-11 070147-1789131716873.png">This rain will be coming down quickly, increasing the chance for isolated flash flooding. A large section of the east will have the chance for flooding Friday into Saturday (below). The flood potential will be elevated on Saturday around portions of the Northeast, including I-95 from Richmond through Philadelphia, including D.C. and Baltimore.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-11 070016-1789131624529.png">

Patrick Crawford

Low Pressure Keeps the East Stormy into the Weekend

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WeatherNation Meteorologists

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If it felt like this summer was relentless and never ending, it's true! A new report from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) compiled data from June-August 2026 and found that it was the <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/national-climate-202608">Warmest meteorological summer on record for the contiguous U.S.</a> It was also a <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/global-climate-202608">record-setting warm August for the entire globe</a> and its oceans. The current El Niño pattern helped drive ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific to extreme levels and has all but shut down the Atlantic hurricane season so far.<h1><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/national-climate-202608">CREDIT: NOAA/NCEI</a></h1><h2>UNITED STATES Key Takeaways:</h2><ul><li>Warmest summer on record: The average temperature for meteorological summer (June–August) 2026 was the warmest for the contiguous United States (CONUS) in the 132-year record, exceeding the previous records, set in 1936 and 2021, by 0.4°F.</li><li>Warmest August on record: August 2026 averaged 75.6°F, the warmest August on record (1895–present) for the CONUS. Daytime maximum temperatures averaged 88.6°F across the CONUS, which was also the warmest on record.</li><li>August precipitation contrasts: While portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley regions recorded much-above-average August precipitation totals, large areas of the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley received much-below-average precipitation.</li><li>Hawaiʻi exceptionally wet: Hurricane Lala brought heavy rainfall to Hawaiʻi, contributing to its second-wettest August on record (1991–present). Year-to-date precipitation averaged across the island chain was more than three feet above the 1991–2020 average (91.7% above normal), making it the wettest January–August period on record.</li><li>Drought expanded: Drought covered 59.1% of the CONUS on September 1, an increase of more than 10 percentage points from early August.</li></ul><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Notable-Weathe-Climate-US-082026-1789070071157.png"><h2>Other Highlights:</h2><h3>Temperature</h3>The average temperature for the CONUS in August was 75.6°F, 3.5°F above the 20th-century average, while the average for meteorological summer (June–August) was 74.4°F, 3.0°F above average. Both August and summer were the warmest in the 132-year record.&nbsp;<img src="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/inline-images/grid-ranks-tavg-202608.png" alt="Map of the U.S. showing temperature percentiles for August 2026 with warmer areas in gradients of red and cooler areas in gradients of blue." title="Map of the U.S. showing temperature percentiles for August 2026 with warmer areas in gradients of red and cooler areas in gradients of blue.">August 2026 U.S. Mean Temperature Percentiles Map.Most of the CONUS experienced above- to much-above-average August temperatures, with near-average conditions confined to parts of the northern Plains and Midwest. Record-breaking warmth was widespread across the West, Southwest, southern Rockies and southwestern Plains, as well as the southern Florida Peninsula. California, Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado each set records for their warmest August average temperature. California and New Mexico also recorded their warmest average daytime maximum temperatures on record, while average nighttime minimum temperatures were record warm in California, Nevada, Arizona, Utah, New Mexico and Colorado.Summer saw widespread above-average temperatures. Much-above-average nighttime minimum temperatures spanned most of the CONUS, while average daytime maximum temperatures remained near average across much of the Midwest, Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Record-breaking heat extended across much of the Southwest, with Arizona (tied), New Mexico, Utah and Colorado each recording their warmest summer on record.Alaska’s average temperature during August was 52.4°F, 2.9°F above the 1925–2000 average, ranking in the warmest third of the 102-year record. Alaska’s June–August average temperature was 51.6°F, 1.1°F above average and ranking in the warmest third of the record.Hawaiʻi’s average temperature during August was 70.8°F, 1.4°F above the 1991–2020 average, ranking as the third-warmest August in the 36-year record. Hawaiʻi’s June–August average temperature was 69.4°F, 0.8°F above average and ranking in the warmest third of the record.<h2>Precipitation</h2>Total precipitation averaged across the CONUS in August was 2.30 inches, 0.32 inch below the 20th-century average, ranking in the driest third of the 132-year record and making it the driest August since 2000.<img src="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/inline-images/grid-ranks-prcp-202608.png" alt="Map of the U.S. showing precipitation percentiles for August 2026 with wetter areas in gradients of green and drier areas in gradients of brown." title="Map of the U.S. showing precipitation percentiles for August 2026 with wetter areas in gradients of green and drier areas in gradients of brown.">August 2026 U.S. Total Precipitation Percentiles.Below-average precipitation was observed across portions of the West, Upper Midwest and the broad region from the southern Rockies and southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, above-average precipitation fell across portions of the central tier, from central California to the Mid-Atlantic region.Statewide, Indiana and Ohio received their highest August precipitation on record, about twice their average August totals. Neighboring Illinois and West Virginia, along with New Jersey, also had much-above-average precipitation, receiving more than 50% above their average August totals. In contrast, Texas and Oklahoma received less than 30% of their average August precipitation, ranking as their third- and fifth-driest Augusts, respectively. Both states recorded their lowest statewide August precipitation totals since 2000.The CONUS received 8.11 inches of precipitation during summer, 0.21 inch below the 20th-century average, ranking in the driest third of the record. California received just 0.20 inch, 26% of its average summer precipitation, ranking as its fifth-driest summer on record and driest since 2002. In contrast, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky and West Virginia received much-above-average precipitation for the season.Alaska’s average precipitation was 4.57 inches in August, 0.20 inch above the 1925–2000 average, ranking in the middle third of the 102-year record. Alaska’s June–August precipitation averaged 10.67 inches, 0.67 inch above average, also ranking in the middle third of the record.Hawaiʻi received 16.01 inches of precipitation in August, 10.84 inches above the 1991–2020 average, making it the second-wettest August on record (1991–present). Hurricane Lala brought heavy rainfall to Hawaiʻi, with rainfall peaking at 43.54 inches at Laupāhoehoe on the Big Island. June–August precipitation averaged 28.24 inches across the island chain, 14.83 inches above average, ranking as the second-wettest summer on record. Year-to-date precipitation averaged 75.83 inches, 36.28 inches above average, making January–August the wettest such period on record.<h3>Drought</h3>According to the September 1 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" class="ext" href="https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx">U.S. Drought Monitor</a>, about 59.1% of the CONUS was in drought, an increase of about 10.5 percentage points since early August. Drought persisted across much of the interior West, including portions of the Southwest, Great Basin, Northwest and Rockies. Drought expanded or intensified across the northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest, as well as much of the southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley and Deep South. In contrast, drought contracted or decreased in intensity across portions of the Southwest, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. In Puerto Rico, more than three-quarters of the island was in drought, with more than 40% classified as extreme drought.<h1>GLOBAL August Highlights:</h1><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/global-climate-202608">CREDIT: NOAA/NCEI</a><ul><li>August was the warmest on record for the globe, eclipsing the previous tied records of 2023 and 2024 by 0.14°F (0.08°C). The June–August three-month season was also record-warm.</li><li>Global sea surface temperature reached an all-time high in Aug.</li><li>El Niño conditions persisted during the month, driving record-high temperatures across vast areas of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.</li><li>Global land surface temperature was near-record warm for Aug and Jun–Aug.</li><li>The Northern Hemisphere experienced its warmest summer, while the Southern Hemisphere had a near-record warm winter.</li><li>The Arctic and Antarctic had a below-average sea ice extent.</li><li>Global tropical cyclone activity was above average with 19 tropical storms.</li></ul><img src="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/inline-images/Notable-Weather-202608.png" alt="Map of world showing locations of temperature highlights in August 2026 with text describing each event and title at top stating “Notable Weather and Climate Events: August 2026”. " title="Map of world showing locations of temperature highlights in August 2026 with text describing each event and title at top stating “Notable Weather and Climate Events: August 2026”. ">Map of global notable weather and climate events in August 2026.

NEW: 2026 Hottest U.S. Summer On Record

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The Pacific Ocean has been incredibly active so far this hurricane season and it shows no sign of slowing down. Meanwhile, the Atlantic remains mostly quiet, as wind shear continues to tear apart tropical waves moving off Africa.<h1>LOWELL</h1>Lowell is moving through the open waters of the Pacific after a close brush with Kauai that brought the Hawaiian island hurricane force wind gusts and over 20" of rain. Power restoration took a big step forward Wednesday and Thursday after being knocked out for over 30k households, more than 85% of the population. Nearly 75% of the islands households are now back up and running.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/hawaii highest gusts-1788918010468.png"><h1>Current Activity</h1>Norbert formed on Wednesday several hundred miles south of the Baja Peninsula, while two other areas are being monitored for potential development. Another system could form in the wake of Norbert, while another wave is being monitored farther west, in the Central Pacific basin.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-11 070704-1789132036852.png">Norbert is expected to track west as it slowly gain strength this weekend, potentially reaching hurricane status by Sunday or Monday. It is too early to determine where Norbert will eventually head, but residents in Hawaii should monitor Norbert's progress.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-11 070730-1789132058848.png"><h1>El Niño Helping Fuel Pacific Activity</h1>The surge in tropical activity comes as El Niño continues to strengthen across the equatorial Pacific. El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures across portions of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Those unusually warm waters can influence weather patterns around the globe while also creating an environment that can favor tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-02 105616-1788368212978.png">This year’s El Niño has already strengthened considerably, and forecasts indicate it could become exceptionally strong later this year.

Tropics: Power Restoration Progresses in Kauai, Norbert Tracks West

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Tracey Anthony

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Temperatures not only broke records on Wednesday but the heat index for some Southern California cities hit near 120° (above). While many do not associate tropical storms and hurricanes with the Desert Southwest, it's not unusual to see remnant moisture from these systems pulled into the region several times a year from decaying systems in the Eastern Pacific. The leftover moisture from Marie that streamed into the area over the holiday weekend is still lingering. Rainfall totals from Marie brought 2" in some locations. This also significantly increased the high surf and rip currents over the weekend holiday. Beach erosion and coastal impacts have been significant! <div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2097052283859070982" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2097052283859070982"></div>The higher moisture is also impacting the heat across the region. Dew point temperatures have been in the 60s and 70s. Heat Alerts remain active through Thursday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-09 190346-1789002230793.png">Temperatures across this area are running 10-20° above average for Thursday, before more seasonable temperatures for Friday. Near 90 is expected for San Diego! When the humidity is factored in, temperatures could feel nearly 10 degrees warmer, and today that humidity is lingering. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-09 190400-1789002244390.png">Below are just a few of the records that broke in Southern California on Wednesday. Temperatures will start to reach near normal again for many by the weekend.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-09 190417-1789002291052.png">Had plans to hit the beach and beat the heat? Might not be the best idea to head into the water. Beach hazards statements have been issued for coastal California. Mainly, large waves and dangerous rip currents will be the threats to watch out for. Some of these alerts will last through the rest of the work week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-09 190510-1789002316119.png">If you are going to the beaches, swim near a lifeguard! This is true even for more experienced swimmers.If you ever find yourself caught in a rip current:<ol><li>Don't panic. If you panic and try to swim back to shore against the current, you will exhaust your energy.</li><li>Swim parallel to the coastline. Once you're out of the grip of the rip you'll be able to move towards the shoreline.</li><li>If swimming parallel is too difficult. Float on your back and try to signal for help!</li><li>Listen to the lifeguards and monitor beach conditions before you go into the water.</li></ol><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-02 081848-1788368179615.jpg">Stay tuned to WeatherNation for the latest in the forecast.

High Heat & Humidity Across the Southwest

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The plains have had an active summer. Severe storms on Wednesday clocked in winds above 70 mph across portions of the plains. The risk for severe weather remains through the overnight (above). As Deep Moisture from the Gulf work north and meet this slow moving front across the southern plains, some much needed rain will be expected across the South. <div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2097822363782103054" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2097822363782103054"></div><h1>THURSDAY</h1>A Marginal risk for severe weather remains through cities like Fort Smith, AR and Paducah, KY through Thursday. Damaging winds are the primary threat. As you move farther west, closer to the Front Range, hail will also be a concern. <h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-03-29 061922-1789044445622.png">TIMING</h1>Some storms will hold together overnight, and as the frontal boundary dips south, more storms will develop once again on Thursday. There is an isolated threat for severe weather including damaging winds and hail.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/FSAAA-1788997331944.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>FLOOD THREAT</h1>Rounds of severe storms are expected across much of the Plains and Northeast. As a result, the risk for flash flooding will be on the table Thursday &amp; again Saturday with a second system working through.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-03-29 061131-1789043845373.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-03-29 061654-1789043852643.png">Make sure to tune in at :10 and :30 past the hour for your full Eastern and Central U.S. breakdown!

Rounds of Severe Storms Target the Plains

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Check out our Top 5 videos of the week!

https://youtu.be/dw_u7hnkLjI

For WeatherNation, I'm <a href="https://media.weathernationtv.com/team/meredith-garofalo/">Meteorologist Meredith Garofalo</a>

Who Made The Top 5?

Active Pattern Takes Shape Across the Upper Midwest

A changing weather pattern will bring several

Atlantic Breaks Record For Latest First Hurricane

For the first time in the satellite era (sinc

Low Pressure Keeps the East Stormy into the Weekend

Storms will continue to track through the Eas

NEW: 2026 Hottest U.S. Summer On Record

If it felt like this summer was relentless an

Tropics: Power Restoration Progresses in Kauai, Norbert Tracks West

The Pacific Ocean has been incredibly active

High Heat & Humidity Across the Southwest

Temperatures not only broke records on Wednes

Rounds of Severe Storms Target the Plains

The plains have had an active summer. Severe