Kevin Schneider

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We've got a low-pressure system out over the open waters, sitting on the warm Gulf Stream waters in the middle of September. Sounds like tropical mischief, right? While nothing is expected to gain tropical characteristics over the next day or so, we could still have mischief.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-15 091914-1757949628000.png">We spoke with Erik Heden, Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the NWS Newport-Morehead City Monday morning, about the wind, rain, and coastal flooding impacts of the latest low-pressure system to impact their region.<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/U5nP1TmiWMg" start="0"></iframe></div><h1>Forecast Rainfall</h1>Arguably, the biggest impact of this low spinning onshore will be the rainfall, especially where it falls, with many of the highest totals concentrated in North Carolina and Virginia.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-15 183445-1757982958575.png">An excessive rainfall outlook has been issued through Tuesday for rainfall totals upwards of 3-5" with localized maximums being even higher.<h1>Severe Outlook</h1>As some of these storms get rotated onshore, there is a possibility that one or two of them will start to spin. We see this often with lows that move from water to land. The added friction with the land can be all it takes. The Storm Prediction Center is watching an area from North Carolina to Virginia with a low-end tornado threat.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-16 095425-1758038081387.png"><h1>Forecast Winds</h1>It might not be "tropical," but the highest wind gusts could approach tropical-storm-force at times. It looks like it might not be the wind that causes a ton of problems, but the direction of the wind: coastal flooding and rip current risks could pose some dangerous problems at times. Coastal inundation is only expected to approach a foot or two in low-lying, susceptible areas of the coast but the rip current risk is high along the shorelines.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-16 095512-1758038124243.png">

Coastal Low Spins Trouble Onshore

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CENTRAL U.S - A trough pushing in from the west has been responsible severe storms across the High Plains since this weekend. As of Monday, after Sunday's event, North Dakota has set a new record for the year with over 62 tornadoes! Over the next few days, we can see more rounds of severe weather, but hopefully away from North Dakota. Related: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/north-dakota-breaks-yearly-tornado-record">Dakota Tornado Record Falls Over the Weekend</a><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-16 094555-1758037674526.png">As storms fire along a cold front, being ushered through the plains by our trough, they'll quickly become severe in the early afternoon. The area of greatest concern is centered on North Platte, NE but could stretch as far north as the arrowhead of Minnesota. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary concerns, but a few tornadoes will be possible.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-16 094607-1758037770141.png">Over the next 5 days, multiple inches of rain will be possible over already saturated grounds. We have seen flooding across portions of the Northern Plains, and this threat will continue through this week. Today alone, some isolated locations will pick up 4-5 inches!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-16 095034-1758037858814.png">Always use caution with flood waters, as you never know how deep the water is. Turn Around, Don't Drown.

Storms Picking on the High Plains

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We are now a week after the climatological peak of Atlantic Hurricane Season, so where is the activity? Several factors contribute to this season being extremely quiet so far. For one, it has been dry and stable with more wind shear around the Atlantic Basin. That has helped limit storm development off the coast of Africa. The National Hurricane Center is still watching a tropical wave in the central Atlantic, and they've now made it an area of investigation: Invest 92L. If this does not end up being named, this would be only the 2nd time (1992) since record-keeping began in 1950, with no Atlantic named storm activity between August 29 and September 16.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-16 070141-1758027713254.png">Forecast models have been released for Invest 92L, and currently, there is no direct hazard to land. Many of the spaghetti plots that take it out to sea sooner are stronger - if it were to remain weak, it could affect some islands, but it might not be a tropical storm at that point. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-16 070317-1758027808426.png">Meanwhile, in the next few days, a plume of Saharan dust will move around the tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic, reducing chances for thunderstorms to organize, but there is a potential for some slow development after the fact.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/saharan-1757891704693.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>There is another tropical wave that the NHC is also monitoring set to roll off of the west coast of Africa. Nothing is expected to develop in the next few days with the earliest timeline starting this weekend for that one<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-16 070534-1758027959402.png">Do not let your guard down! September is historically the peak of hurricane season, and ocean conditions remain favorable for additional development. However, the NHC urges residents along the Atlantic basin to monitor updates closely.<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/W2bhqfX0B0A" start="0"></iframe></div>What is slightly concerning are the water temperatures in the Gulf. Right now, they are 1°C warmer than they usually are for this time of the year. That being said, it's been tough to get anything over those warm waters so far this season-let's hope that continues.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-13 051452-1757762098585.jpg">As always, preparedness is key. Whether or not this particular system develops into a named storm, it serves as a reminder that the Atlantic remains active and that the window for tropical threats is far from closed. Tune into WeatherNation TV for the latest updates.

ATLANTIC: Another Wave Joins 92-L

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The dry time has been a little hard to enjoy the last week or two in South Florida. While this is the rainy season, and we're making up for a slow start to it, you can still roll your eyes at what the extended forecasts have looked like recently. In fact, some spots in South Florida have already had their wettest start to September, including Miami.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-15 183827-1757983193872.png">On the other end of the spectrum, some northern Florida spots have really missed out, making it the driest start to September in areas such as Gainesville and Tallahassee.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-15 183835-1757983218895.png">So why? Just because Florida likes to have the most fun? Well, actually, it's the front that's keeping the storms around. We could show a similar setup for most of the past week or two, with a slow-moving boundary in the area.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-14 171238-1757891565601.png">That, along with a TON of moisture to work with, is attempting to catch up some drought-stricken areas of the Sunshine State. The Drought Monitor updated on Thursday and had some pretty sizeable improvements in South Florida.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/2025-09-11 09-39-57-1757605257541.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>So while it might be easy to complain about beach plans constantly getting ruined, it has its benefits. Our biggest concern is the lightning threat associated with any Florida thunderstorm, but especially this time of year, with people outdoors. Anytime it rains this heavily, of course, the flash flooding threat will be there as well. Some areas could receive another 3-5 inches before the rain chances start to back off next week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-15 184044-1757983252166.png">

Adrian Hernandez

Florida Rainfall: Nuisance or Beneficial?

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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While the Atlantic has been relatively quiet this season, the Eastern Pacific has been much more active, particularly in recent months. Early Saturday morning, Mario dissipated southwest of the Baja Peninsula, only to reemerge Sunday morning as a tropical storm. One other tropical wave has a low chance of developing over the next week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-15 184318-1757983404971.png"><h1>Monitoring Mario</h1>Mario formed on Friday only to dissipate on Saturday before reorganizing into a tropical storm again on Sunday! Since Mario's circulation remained intact, despite a lack of storm activity, the system did not get a new name. The latest update has Mario moving over cooler waters.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Web1-1758019293198.png">Mario is expected to drift WNW, eventually sending some of its moisture into Southern California by mid-to-late week, possibly leading to flooding. No direct impacts are expected from this system in the United States.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Web2-1758019403790.png">Forecast models project that some of Mario's moisture may reach Southern California later this week.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/09-15_rsw mario-1757983442769.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Eastern Pacific: Mario Returns, Sends Moisture to California

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Did you see them? Many might have had better things to do this weekend but if you were paying attention to Space Weather, you got a treat! NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center upped the expectation late last night, with some dazzling results.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1967422118729273403" src="https://x.com/NWSSWPC/status/1967422118729273403"></div>The problem for many in the plains was cloud-cover, with evening storms making it difficult to see the lights behind the lightning, but some were lucky to sneak between the clouds.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-15 092335-1757950156965.png">Granted, it might have been difficult to see with the naked eye. Many of the photos we've seen have mentioned a long exposure that was needed to see the fun. Either way, it's gorgeous if you can figure it out.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-15 092324-1757950271340.png">While it wasn't the most robust solar storm we've seen in the past 2 years, it was well worth it for some! We're not expecting another show, however.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-15 134825-1757965711698.png">

Jackie Brown

Northern Lights Close Out the Weekend For Many

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Grab the pumpkin spice and apple cider donuts, fall foliage is started to grace some areas across the United States, with more developing this week! The latest forecast from <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.explorefall.com/fall-foliage-map">Explore Fall</a> (top of page) shows developing color across the Rockies, Cascades, High Sierra, and the Upper-Midwest, near the Canadian border, over the next seven days (September 8th - 14th). Recent wildfire activity in the Sierra may make color there a bit more muted or highly variable between patches of trees. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-08 104753-1757350314424.png">Color has already been showing some for areas in the map above (yellow areas), mostly in the Rockies and Cascades. In fact, we've seen the Bigtooth Maples change quite a bit in the Wasatch Mountains near Salt Lake City!<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1964055938010067402" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1964055938010067402"></div>The most 30 days prior to the appearance of fall color are the most important for vibrancy during the peak season, but drought conditions can also lead to more muted color or variable conditions. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-08 105237-1757350392233.png">For great fall color, sunny days with cool, crisp nights are preferable. Though rain is welcome at times to keep the trees from drying out.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-08 105303-1757350398827.png">

Fall Color Starting to Show In Parts of the Lower 48

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[<a href="https://blog.nssl.noaa.gov/nsslnews/2018/10/video-advanced-technology-demonstrator/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NOAA</a>] Radar research at the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory has taken another step forward. The Advanced Technology Demonstrator is installed at the National Weather Radar Testbed facility and will become fully operational in 2019.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xso-P0UAE88

The Advanced Technology Demonstrator, or ATD, is the first full-scale, S-band, dual-polarization phased array radar built from the ground up and designed specifically for use as a weather radar.

A <a href="https://www.nssl.noaa.gov/tools/radar/mpar/">phased array radar</a> is able to steer the radar beam electronically left-to-right and up-and-down while the antenna remains stationary. The ATD has a flat, or planar, antenna comprised of 76 panels with 4,864 radiating elements.

<img class="alignnone wp-image-98737 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/10/mpar-sk2.png" alt="New Advanced Technology Radar Installed at National Severe Storms Laboratory" width="600" height="334" />

[Phased Array radar has a unique antenna that collects the same information as a conventional radar in about one-sixth the time. Users can direct radar beams to scan different targets as needed. Researchers believe phased array could extend warning lead times from 10 minutes to 18-22 minutes.]

In addition, the ATD features <a href="https://www.nssl.noaa.gov/tools/radar/dualpol/">dual polarization technology</a> developed at NSSL and recently added to WSR-88D radars, also known as NEXRAD, throughout the country. The ATD is adding dual polarization technology to phased array technology, combining the benefits of both. The new radar will feature dual-polarization’s ability to show the size and shape of precipitation, and the phased array’s faster updates.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-98736" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/10/dualpol5_both.gif" alt="" width="350" height="200" />

[Difference between conventional and polarmetric radar]

The radar will be used for meteorological studies and to help researchers evaluate polarimetric performance of a planar phased array radar.

Edited for <a href="https://media.weathernationtv.com/">WeatherNation</a> by Meteorologist Mace Michaels