Kevin Schneider

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As the Atlantic hurricane season enters its final stretch,&nbsp;a new tropical storm has been named in the central Atlantic Ocean. Melissa, which is moving westward at around 15 to 20 mph, has drawn attention from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) due to its likely impacts in the Caribbean in the short term. Melissa is battling some dry air and moderate wind shear, two factors that often limit tropical development. By mid- to late week, as it continues westward, the system will encounter more humid air and slightly weaker upper-level winds. That is when long-range models&nbsp;indicate there is a better chance for gradual organization.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-21 131745-1761074550154.png">The latest forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center illustrates the chaos.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/10213-1761085488482.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Hurricane watches (in pink) were issued for portions of Haiti, and tropical storm watches were issued for Jamaica. This means that hurricane or tropical storm force conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-21 131815-1761074323487.png">Rainfall totals for Hispaniola (Dominican Republic and Haiti) are likely to be between 5-10".<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-21 132143-1761074531234.png">Sea surface temperatures remain warm across much of the Atlantic basin, providing ample fuel if the wave can find a pocket of lower shear and increased moisture. As this wave closes in on the Leeward Islands, little to no development is expected. However, heavy rain and breezy conditions will move through the island chain. What happens after that? Only time will tell.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 044010-1760697624879.png"><h1>The Uncertainty</h1>The tricky part of this forecast is figuring out where Melissa will be and WHAT it will be by the end of the weekend. That's how long it will take to start to move substantially. Why? Right now, Melissa is parked between two different areas of high pressure. Those are playing a tug-of-war style game for the right to steer Melissa.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-21 162353-1761085438917.png">As many of our recently back-loaded tropical seasons have reminded us: October is not the month to let your guard down.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-15 103336-1760546429287.png">Tune into WeatherNation for the top weather headlines for more on the tropics.

Taban Sharifi

Tropical Storm Melissa Named in the Caribbean

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Taban Sharifi grew up in Southern California between Los Angeles and San Diego. She is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) with the American Meteorological Society (AMS). She has a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Environmental Sciences with a minor in Environmental Systems and Society from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Go Bruins! While in school, Taban was a meteorology intern with NBC LA. There she helped forecast daily weather for the greater Los Angeles region and created a playbook to deploy weather sensors for NBC owned-and-operated stations across the country. Her first on-air job took her to San Angelo, Texas, where she was a morning meteorologist and co-anchor. Working in West Texas gave her knowledge and experience covering severe storms. From there, she moved to Palm Springs, California. People think forecasting in California is sunshine all the time, but with temperatures in the 120’s, wildfires, damaging winds, floodings, and earthquakes, the forecasting kept her very busy! She also worked there as a general assignment reporter and told community stories. Taban is excited for the challenge and opportunity to forecast nationally with WeatherNation. She also looks forward to exploring all that Colorado has to offer!

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An area of low pressure that's looking for its way is sitting and spinning off the coast of California. As it gets kicked inland later this week, it's going to bring the unsettled weather with it. It will bring some beneficial rain and snow to parts of the southwest, including California and Colorado. A few inches of snow will be possible in the Sierra Nevada mountains as well as the western slope of the Colorado Rockies.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-21 160602-1761084366662.png">However, it's where that system ends up by the weekend that is raising some eyebrows. As this system emerges out of the Rockies, it will be moving into notably warmer temperatures, which could be just enough to power storms into the severe threshold.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-21 160634-1761084399816.png">But will this system have enough ingredients to talk about another weekend severe weather event? The Storm Prediction Center is already highlighting areas of New Mexico, Texas and Oklahoma for a low-end threat by Thursday. Currently we sit at a Marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk for severe storms.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-21 160646-1761084409519.png">However, getting beyond four and five days out can be a little murky. Right now, this feels like a repeat of last weekend's storms, with all modes on the table. One thing we are starting to grasp firmly is that the rainfall amounts will add up! The Weather Prediction Center shows the heaviest rainfall potential through Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana over the next 5 days.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-21 160735-1761084460116.png">Our in-house model, Baron, highlights much more of a western push of downpours. Showing upwards of 5-6" in more of north Texas.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-21 160727-1761084451123.png">With multiple rounds of storms expected, flash flooding will need to be monitored, especially in eastern Oklahoma and east Texas. Here's a first look at what storms could look like Thursday through Saturday<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/10211-1761084574514.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>There is still time for all of this to change, but start thinking about where the end of the week is going to take you. Do you have high school football game plans or trunk or treating? Those could be impacted by some of these potential storms.

Cut-Off Low Brings Rain, Snow, & Strong Storms Late-Week

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Alana Cameron was born and raised in Canada in the city of Mississauga, just outside of Toronto. Alana is the oldest of 4 siblings, all close in age, and grew up playing outside with them in all types of weather. After graduating high school, Alana moved to study at the University of British Columbia in Kelowna for a year before transferring to Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia where she completed a Bachelor of Science in Physics and Atmospheric Science. Upon completion, Alana moved back to Toronto where she completed a post-grad degree in Meteorology at York University. After her post-grad, she went on to complete another post-grad in Broadcast Journalism - TV News at Fanshawe College in London, Ontario. During her final year of studies she had the privilege of interning with the best in the business in Canada at The Weather Network. Once she finished her internship, she got the call from small-town Denison, Texas where she accepted a job as an on-air meteorologist at KTEN-TV, right in tornado alley, covering severe weather from Sherman/Denison (North Texas) to Ada (Southern Oklahoma). After the most active tornado season Oklahoma had seen in May 2019 (105 tornadoes!) Alana is excited to join WeatherNation to cover weather all across the nation. If you're interested in following her on social media she can be found @alanacameronwx!

Alana Cameron

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NORTHWEST - As we head through the work week, we'll have some dry time through most of Thursday before our next frontal boundary takes aim at the Pacific Northwest late Thursday into early Friday.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/10212-1761084696882.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>According to the National Weather Service, this next event will be considered another "atmospheric river" because of the richness of the moisture being funneled in from the Pacific. On the AR (atmospheric river) forecast scale, we'll be between an AR2 and an AR3 along the West Coasts of Oregon and Washington State.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web2-1761041791714.png">Based on the AR scale, an AR3 is a balance of both beneficial and hazardous.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-19 164231-1760913773685.png">We spoke with the National Weather Service about total precipitation totals, and here's what they had to say about that.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/SOT_TRT_0.46_THIS FAR OUT WE CAN STILL EXPECT MULTIPLE INCHES OF RAIN IN WESTERN WASHINGTON_BD_E101925-1760913519296.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The Weather Prediction Center has been forecasting rainfall totals of a couple of inches as well, and our in-house forecast models show the snowfall totals in the higher elevations receiving several inches too.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-21 161207-1761084731381.png">In house forecast models are showing snowfall for some of the higher terrain too. Expect to see an active pattern through the weekend.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-21 161231-1761084773216.png">Be sure to join us LIVE on WeatherNation for the latest forecast!

Another Atmospheric River Late Week

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GREAT LAKES - A large trough has been moving over the northern U.S. since late this weekend and early this week, bringing along with it gusty winds, scattered showers, and cooler temperatures.Through tonight, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a MARGINAL (level 1 out of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms surrounding Lake Erie. This includes cities such as Detroit, MI, and Cleveland, OH.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-21 160025-1761084031705.png">As the upper-level trough and surface front move over the Great Lakes, they'll be ushering in cooler air above warmer sea surface temperatures. The contrast between the two can enhance lake-effect showers. It's not quite cold enough for lake-effect snow with this system. These off-and-on showers getting dragged over the Great Lakes will carry on for the next couple of days.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1021-1761084123135.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h2>Wind &amp; Temperatures</h2>Behind this low, strong winds have led to wind alerts through tonight across portions of the Midwest. Wind gusts up to 45 mph are likely in these areas.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-21 160045-1761084050352.png">With cold temperatures being ushered in behind as well, we could have some wind chills in the 20s for Wednesday morning. Low temperatures will even dip to the 20s for a few locations, with many cities in the 30s.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-21 160315-1761084202412.png">A few areas through Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa are under Frost &amp; Freeze Alerts through Wednesday morning.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-21 160059-1761084063959.png">For more details on what the forecast looks like once this low moves out, be sure to join us LIVE on WeatherNation, we stream 24/7.

Great Lakes Storms, High Plains Winds, & Cooler Air

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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Ready for another La Niña winter? NOAA quietly released it's outlook for the upcoming winter season on Thursday, sans press conference since the government shutdown continues. The press conference has been rescheduled to November but the outlook is still ready for us to digest. As a reminder, these outlooks are for the overall three month pattern and do not serve to predict seasonal snowfall totals or bursts of cold/warmth that are likely to impact areas highlighted with the seemingly opposite outlook. The National Weather Service released the following video showcasing the newly released outlooks for temperature, precipitation, and drought from December through February.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1978839667907744157" src="https://x.com/NWS/status/1978839667907744157"></div><h1>Temperature</h1>Above average temperatures are favored across the southern tier of the United States, while below average temperatures are favored across the Upper-Midwest and Northwest. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 065848-1760706897085.png"><h1>Precipitation</h1> As the jetstream is likely to remain more active across the northern tier of the country, allowing for cooler air, it should also allow for more storms to track through these areas. As such, above average precipitation is favored from the Northwest through the Great Lakes, while drier than average conditions are expected from Southern California through Florida and the Carolinas. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 065852-1760706026499.png"><h1>Influences</h1>In case you missed it, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/la-nina-advisory-issued-how-this-could-affect-the-winter-season">a La Niña Advisory was issued last week</a> as these conditions were observed in the equatorial Pacific west of South America. La Niña is expected to persist through winter, which is one of the primary reasons the winter outlook favors the areas it does. La Niña patterns vary greatly from year to year, depending on the strength of La Niña and the phase of the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation). The graphic below shows the typical pattern of the Pacific and Polar jets during a La Niña winter, which usher in cooler and wet air masses. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 065856-1760707324994.png">There is lower confidence that La Niña continues through the late winter and early spring (graphic below), which could throw a wrench in the seasonal forecast. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 073303-1760707994646.png">ENSO (El Niño &amp; southern Osciallation) neutral conditions have a less obvious pattern influence, but wetter conditions can develop farther south than during La Niña. What's the takeaway? Be prepared for anything this winter! We'll always keep you up to date on air and online.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 073307-1760708002217.png">

Jackie Brown

NOAA Releases Outlook for Winter 25-26'

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October has been relatively quiet in terms of severe weather. That all came to an end Saturday as storms rumbled through the Central and Southern Plains. A few storms actually produced severe weather reports, some of which were classified as tornadoes.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-19 155805-1760911139185.png">The National Weather Service in Little Rock, Arkansas, confirmed an EF-1 tornado was found in Hot Spring County from Saturday's storms.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-19 155304-1760911134206.png"><h1>Forecast Timing</h1>Now, the front is aiming for the northeastern U.S. One thing we've noticed is the lack of lightning with these thunderstorms, but the winds have been howling along the front. Through Monday morning, the severe weather threat continues into New England, for cities such as Boston, MA.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/10-19_rne bams3k overnight-1760926909056.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Severe Outlook</h1>As for severe weather, not much is expected behind this front. The SPC only calling for general thunderstorms in the forecast for some of the coastal northeast cities.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web4-1760955877378.png"> With regards to rainfall, the northeast is not totally out of the woods yet. We still have a marginal (level 1 out of 4) risk for excessive rain.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web7-1760956041292.png"> The Storm Prediction Center's tornado outlook is low, but non-zero, for cities including Baltimore, New York, and Philadelphia. It may not be until early Monday morning before the front actually moves through.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-19 201910-1760926771887.png">In fact, on Sunday night, a tornado warning happened just south of the D.C. area.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-19 201521-1760926794802.png"><h1>Total Accumulation</h1>The severe storms will also be capable of producing heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding. A few locations could see an inch or two, which could lead to some localized areas of flooding. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web7-1760956184805.png">Tune into WeatherNation TV for the latest details.

Adrian Hernandez

Strong Fall Front Fires Up Severe Chances Through Monday Morning

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A ridge of high pressure has been responsible for the quiet and warm days across the central U.S., but on the western periphery of this ridge, a trough will attempt to slide in and ignite severe weather chances across the High Plains. The storms that are steered between these two upper-level systems are what we often refer to as "ridge-riding" thunderstorms.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/2025-10-16 05-09-22-1760612987566.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>On Thursday, another MARGINAL (level 1 out of 5) risk is issued as the cold front shifts down into eastern Colorado and western Kansas, even extending all the way into central Nebraska. All kinds of severe weather are possible.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1760669659768.png">There is a small risk of tornadoes in the latest SPC advisory for Thursday. It covers cities from North Platte, NE, over to Colby, KS and as far south as Cheyenne Wells, CO. Make sure you have a way of getting notified if anything is to touch down.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1760640961225.png">The cold front keeps pushing east into Missouri and Oklahoma for Friday. Similar to Thursday, severe potential will exist during the heating of the day but some storms could remain strong even after sunset! The biggest threat will be damaging winds.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/New Baron Video 3-1760669791973.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Forecasted rainfall totals look to be highest across central Nebraska, where some may receive 1-1.5" of rainfall with isolated higher amounts.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1760669880981.png">Be sure to join us at :30 past the hour to see how this will impact your temperature forecast, too!

Jesse Kelley

Ridge Riding Thunderstorms in the Western Plains

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On Friday, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) increased the likelihood of an area of thunderstorms and low pressure to develop in the Gulf of Mexico. NHC is currently saying there is a moderate chance (60%) of tropical development Friday night to very early Saturday morning.

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According to NHC, "Surface observations and recent satellite wind data indicate that a well-defined low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico has winds of 30-35 mph near and east of the center. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited, but any increase in this activity may result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression or storm before the system moves inland over the northwestern Gulf coast tonight, and potential tropical cyclone advisories may be needed as early as this afternoon. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana through Saturday. Given the complete saturation of soils with ongoing river flooding along the Texas and Louisiana coastal areas, heavy rain could lead to flash, urban, and additional riverine flooding across this region. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office."

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This news comes as Texas and Louisiana have been drenched with constant downpours this week. Additional rainfall across this area is forecast to be between one and three inches across many areas of southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas, with isolated amounts up to five more inches of rainfall!

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As a result of the next batch of heavy rainfall, a flash flood watch has been issued through tonight for the northwest Gulf Coast states.

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As of this writing, development seems unlikely in terms of tropical activity. However, a storm does not need a name in order to be dangerous. In this case, heavy rain will cause additional flooding. Avoid floodwaters if you encounter them. This tropical activity comes as the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season forecast is public. You can click/tap on that below:

<a href="https://media.weathernationtv.com/news/noaa-expects-above-avg-2021-hurricane-season/">Related Story: NOAA Expects Above Average 2021 Hurricane Season</a>

&nbsp;

New Area Highlighted in Gulf for Tropical Development

Tropical Storm Melissa Named in the Caribbean

As the Atlantic hurricane season enters its f

Cut-Off Low Brings Rain, Snow, & Strong Storms Late-Week

An area of low pressure that's looking for it

Another Atmospheric River Late Week

NORTHWEST - As we head through the work week,

Great Lakes Storms, High Plains Winds, & Cooler Air

GREAT LAKES - A large trough has been moving

NOAA Releases Outlook for Winter 25-26'

Ready for another La Niña winter? NOAA quietl

Strong Fall Front Fires Up Severe Chances Through Monday Morning

October has been relatively quiet in terms of

Ridge Riding Thunderstorms in the Western Plains

A ridge of high pressure has been responsible