Dave Holder

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As a slow-moving upper-level low approaches from the west, its energy will combine with plentiful moisture, increasing chances for heavy downpours and high rainfall accumulation rates.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1761361262054.png">At the surface, moisture is pooling along surface fronts and will continue to do so into the weekend. The upper low will provide plenty of lift, creating heavy rainfall due to the ample amount of deep moisture available. Flood Watches have been issued for portions of Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1761444804086.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1761444870478.png">In addition to the Flood Watch, the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted portions of Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana today with a Level 2 Slight Risk of excessive rainfall. This entire area has been unusually dry over the last few weeks. San Antonio, for example, had not recorded any rainfall for several weeks to begin October. Several inches of rain are likely, and with the ground acting like concrete in some spots, runoff can occur quickly!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-22 171707-1761175477939.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1png-1761444747412.png">Check back with Weather Nation for the latest information. You can always get your South-Central regional forecast every 30 past the hour.

Jesse Kelley

Growing Flooding Concern Across the Gulf

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Taban Sharifi grew up in Southern California between Los Angeles and San Diego. She is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) with the American Meteorological Society (AMS). She has a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Environmental Sciences with a minor in Environmental Systems and Society from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Go Bruins! While in school, Taban was a meteorology intern with NBC LA. There she helped forecast daily weather for the greater Los Angeles region and created a playbook to deploy weather sensors for NBC owned-and-operated stations across the country. Her first on-air job took her to San Angelo, Texas, where she was a morning meteorologist and co-anchor. Working in West Texas gave her knowledge and experience covering severe storms. From there, she moved to Palm Springs, California. People think forecasting in California is sunshine all the time, but with temperatures in the 120’s, wildfires, damaging winds, floodings, and earthquakes, the forecasting kept her very busy! She also worked there as a general assignment reporter and told community stories. Taban is excited for the challenge and opportunity to forecast nationally with WeatherNation. She also looks forward to exploring all that Colorado has to offer!

Taban Sharifi

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As an upper-level low moves in from the west, it has been encountering a warm and unstable air mass. With stronger winds aloft and potential energy for thunderstorm development, a severe risk will be present over the next few days. A portion of the Lone Star State has been highlighted with a risk of severe thunderstorms for the overnight, with a Level 2 Slight Risk across the Gulf Coast of Texas and Louisiana. With upper-level winds overhead increasing shear, a tornado threat will also be present.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-25 200821-1761444515138.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-25 200858-1761444544064.png">Below is the latest on the forecast timing for potential severe weather.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/gulfstorms2-1761444683987.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Stay tuned to WeatherNation for the latest updates on the strong storms and potential for flooding. You can always find more details in your Central Regional Forecast :30 past the hour.

A Severe Thunderstorm Risk Continues Across Texas Into Early Sunday Morning

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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Multiple storm systems are expected to impact the West Coast over the weekend and into early next week, setting the stage for potential flood, wind, and snow impacts. These systems are known as atmospheric rivers, efficient water transport systems that bring tropical moisture poleward, providing the west coast of the U.S. with a third to half of its annual precipitation during the winter season.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-25 163807-1761431893432.png">The severe thunderstorm risk will continue overnight, but only confined to a small section of the Oregon Coast. Still, general thunderstorms will be possible into early Sunday morning for western Washington and Oregon, and also for much of Idaho and far western Montana. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-25 200243-1761444181854.png">Another system arrives Sunday morning with more rain and snow. The third system doesn't appear as gusty/strong as the last low, but it will still bring some of the same impacts. Here is the latest on the timing of the heavy rain moving through.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/nw4-1761444309211.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>We spoke with Chad Hecht from the Center of Western Weather and Water Extremes about what exactly Atmospheric Rivers are.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/PKG_TRT_5.33_UPCOMING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENTS WITH CW3E_ALANA CAMERON_BD_E0102125-1761170244851.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The Weather Prediction Center has been forecasting rainfall totals of a couple of inches, and our in-house forecast models show the snowfall totals in the higher elevations receiving several inches to several feet of snow, too.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-25 200543-1761444356349.png">Winter alerts have been issued across much of the Northwest, and could continue over the coming days.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-25 200610-1761444378889.png">Be sure to join us LIVE on WeatherNation for the latest forecast!

The Pacific Northwest Being Impacted by the Latest Atmospheric River

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All eyes are on the Caribbean as we are now tracking the 13th named storm of the 2025 season - Melissa. In fact, we've been tracking Melissa and it's origins as a tropical wave for more than a week now and we could be watching it for another week still! In the short term, Melissa will hardly move, bringing intense rainfall to Caribbean, especially between Puerto Rico and Jamaica, with over a foot off rain possible for Hispaniola (Haiti &amp; the DR).<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1761362045128.png">Melissa's lack of movement is due to its position between two ridges of high pressure in the mid-levels, while in the upper-levels, a trough is still keeping shear high to limit short-term development.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1761362115187.png">In addition to shear, Melissa is battling some dry air, two factors that often limit tropical development. These factors are expected to lessen in the next few days and Melissa is expected to strengthen into a major hurricane as it sits over the warm waters of the Caribbean this weekend into next week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1761362164727.png">The latest forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center illustrates the chaos, showing little forward movement over the next few days. Forecast models are starting to come into better agreement about an eventual turn to the north through the Greater Antilles into the eastern Bahamas, likely after a slow drift to the west near Jamaica.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/pic5-1761414058707.png">Hurricane watches and warnings (in pink and red) and tropical storm warnings have been issued for Jamaica and Haiti. This means that hurricane- and tropical-storm-force conditions are likely within the warning areas within 36 hours. The winds are expected to get quite bit stronger through the weekend into next week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1761362202831.png">Sea surface temperatures remain warm across the Caribbean, providing ample fuel if the wave can find a pocket of lower shear and increased moisture.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-23 060209-1761220940859.png">As many of our recently back-loaded tropical seasons have reminded us, October is not the month to let your guard down.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-15 103336-1760546429287.png">Tune into WeatherNation for the top weather headlines for more on the tropics.

Patrick Crawford

Melissa is Now a Hurricane; Still Expected to Become a Major Hurricane Soon

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GREAT LAKES - A large trough has been moving over the northern U.S. since early this week, bringing along with it gusty winds, scattered showers, and cooler temperatures.As the upper-level trough and surface front move over the Great Lakes, they'll continue to usher in cooler air above warmer sea surface temperatures. The contrast between the two can enhance lake-effect showers. It's not quite cold enough for lake-effect snow with this system. These off-and-on showers, which have been dragging over the Great Lakes, will begin to wind down as we head into the weekend.With cold temperatures also being ushered in, temperatures tonight will drop into the 30s and 40s from the Great Lakes down to the Carolinas.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-24 141852-1761337221612.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-24 142002-1761337234549.png">As a result, Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings have been issued again for Saturday morning.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-24 141435-1761337300431.png">For more details on what the forecast looks like once this low moves out, be sure to join us LIVE on WeatherNation, which streams 24/7.

Great Lakes Storms, High Plains Winds, and Cooler Air

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Ready for another La Niña winter? NOAA quietly released it's outlook for the upcoming winter season on Thursday, sans press conference since the government shutdown continues. The press conference has been rescheduled to November but the outlook is still ready for us to digest. As a reminder, these outlooks are for the overall three month pattern and do not serve to predict seasonal snowfall totals or bursts of cold/warmth that are likely to impact areas highlighted with the seemingly opposite outlook. The National Weather Service released the following video showcasing the newly released outlooks for temperature, precipitation, and drought from December through February.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1978839667907744157" src="https://x.com/NWS/status/1978839667907744157"></div><h1>Temperature</h1>Above average temperatures are favored across the southern tier of the United States, while below average temperatures are favored across the Upper-Midwest and Northwest. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 065848-1760706897085.png"><h1>Precipitation</h1> As the jetstream is likely to remain more active across the northern tier of the country, allowing for cooler air, it should also allow for more storms to track through these areas. As such, above average precipitation is favored from the Northwest through the Great Lakes, while drier than average conditions are expected from Southern California through Florida and the Carolinas. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 065852-1760706026499.png"><h1>Influences</h1>In case you missed it, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/la-nina-advisory-issued-how-this-could-affect-the-winter-season">a La Niña Advisory was issued last week</a> as these conditions were observed in the equatorial Pacific west of South America. La Niña is expected to persist through winter, which is one of the primary reasons the winter outlook favors the areas it does. La Niña patterns vary greatly from year to year, depending on the strength of La Niña and the phase of the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation). The graphic below shows the typical pattern of the Pacific and Polar jets during a La Niña winter, which usher in cooler and wet air masses. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 065856-1760707324994.png">There is lower confidence that La Niña continues through the late winter and early spring (graphic below), which could throw a wrench in the seasonal forecast. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 073303-1760707994646.png">ENSO (El Niño &amp; southern Osciallation) neutral conditions have a less obvious pattern influence, but wetter conditions can develop farther south than during La Niña. What's the takeaway? Be prepared for anything this winter! We'll always keep you up to date on air and online.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 073307-1760708002217.png">

Jackie Brown

NOAA Releases Outlook for Winter 25-26'

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Alana Cameron was born and raised in Canada in the city of Mississauga, just outside of Toronto. Alana is the oldest of 4 siblings, all close in age, and grew up playing outside with them in all types of weather. After graduating high school, Alana moved to study at the University of British Columbia in Kelowna for a year before transferring to Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia where she completed a Bachelor of Science in Physics and Atmospheric Science. Upon completion, Alana moved back to Toronto where she completed a post-grad degree in Meteorology at York University. After her post-grad, she went on to complete another post-grad in Broadcast Journalism - TV News at Fanshawe College in London, Ontario. During her final year of studies she had the privilege of interning with the best in the business in Canada at The Weather Network. Once she finished her internship, she got the call from small-town Denison, Texas where she accepted a job as an on-air meteorologist at KTEN-TV, right in tornado alley, covering severe weather from Sherman/Denison (North Texas) to Ada (Southern Oklahoma). After the most active tornado season Oklahoma had seen in May 2019 (105 tornadoes!) Alana is excited to join WeatherNation to cover weather all across the nation. If you're interested in following her on social media she can be found @alanacameronwx!

Alana Cameron

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October has been relatively quiet in terms of severe weather. That all came to an end Saturday as storms rumbled through the Central and Southern Plains. A few storms actually produced severe weather reports, some of which were classified as tornadoes.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-19 155805-1760911139185.png">The National Weather Service in Little Rock, Arkansas, confirmed an EF-1 tornado was found in Hot Spring County from Saturday's storms.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-19 155304-1760911134206.png"><h1>Forecast Timing</h1>Now, the front is aiming for the northeastern U.S. One thing we've noticed is the lack of lightning with these thunderstorms, but the winds have been howling along the front. Through Monday morning, the severe weather threat continues into New England, for cities such as Boston, MA.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/10-19_rne bams3k overnight-1760926909056.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Severe Outlook</h1>As for severe weather, not much is expected behind this front. The SPC only calling for general thunderstorms in the forecast for some of the coastal northeast cities.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web4-1760955877378.png"> With regards to rainfall, the northeast is not totally out of the woods yet. We still have a marginal (level 1 out of 4) risk for excessive rain.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web7-1760956041292.png"> The Storm Prediction Center's tornado outlook is low, but non-zero, for cities including Baltimore, New York, and Philadelphia. It may not be until early Monday morning before the front actually moves through.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-19 201910-1760926771887.png">In fact, on Sunday night, a tornado warning happened just south of the D.C. area.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-19 201521-1760926794802.png"><h1>Total Accumulation</h1>The severe storms will also be capable of producing heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding. A few locations could see an inch or two, which could lead to some localized areas of flooding. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web7-1760956184805.png">Tune into WeatherNation TV for the latest details.

Adrian Hernandez

Strong Fall Front Fires Up Severe Chances Through Monday Morning

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NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued their outlook for January to March 2019, which still indicates patterns of a weak El Nino. Warmer than average temperatures are predicted across the West and Northern Plains. Colder than normal weather is predicted for the Tennessee Valley. From the Southeast to the Southwest, wetter than average weather is in the forecast. In the Ohio Valley and Pacific Northwest, below normal precipitation is predicted.

https://twitter.com/NWSCPC/status/1075748080547454977

The drought forecast for the start of 2019 continues to show improvement across California and the Rockies. With the drier than normal forecast for the Northwest, drought conditions are likely to develop over that region.

https://twitter.com/NWSCPC/status/1075750263275864064

The <a href="http://bit.ly/2LlCx9S" target="_blank" rel="noopener">extensively discussed El Nino is underway</a> in the Pacific Ocean, but the atmosphere has yet to respond. Observed sea surface temperatures in the Pacific are warmer than normal as expected, with computer models expecting this to continue. Right now, the overall global pattern resembles neutral conditions. Based on the latest observations and model forecasts, <a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the CPC still indicates</a> a greater than 80 percent chance for <a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/seasglossary.html#el%20nino">El Nino</a> from January to March and 70 percent that it persists through May.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-101162" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/12/geopolar-ssta-monthly-nnvl-620x413-2018-11-00.png" alt="" width="620" height="413" />

[November 2018 sea surface temperature departure from the 1981-2010 average. Graphic by NOAA Climate; data from <a id="anch_29" href="https://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/">NOAA’s Environmental Visualization Lab</a>.]

For WeatherNation: Meteorologist Mace Michaels

Outlook Issued by NOAA for the First Three Months of 2019

Growing Flooding Concern Across the Gulf

As a slow-moving upper-level low approaches f

A Severe Thunderstorm Risk Continues Across Texas Into Early Sunday Morning

As an upper-level low moves in from the west,

The Pacific Northwest Being Impacted by the Latest Atmospheric River

Multiple storm systems are expected to impact

Melissa is Now a Hurricane; Still Expected to Become a Major Hurricane Soon

All eyes are on the Caribbean as we are now t

Great Lakes Storms, High Plains Winds, and Cooler Air

GREAT LAKES - A large trough has been moving

NOAA Releases Outlook for Winter 25-26'

Ready for another La Niña winter? NOAA quietl

Strong Fall Front Fires Up Severe Chances Through Monday Morning

October has been relatively quiet in terms of