WeatherNation Meteorologists

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NEW HOME, JAMAICA - October 28, 2025, will be remembered as the day the island of Jamaica changed forever. Hurricane Melissa slammed into the western side of the island with 185 mph sustained winds, flattening areas of the island. Agencies have been reporting that insurance payments have been slow over the past year, leaving a shortfall of capital heading into what is the peak season for tourism there.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 065457-1793192735289.png">Hurricane Melissa devastated islands in the Caribbean in late October in 2025. Four months later, the National Hurricane Center has completed the post-storm analysis of Melissa, finding that the winds reached 190 mph, tying it with Hurricane Allen for the strongest ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin's history.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 070552-1793192770453.png">The folks at the National Hurricane Center concluded that Melissa reached a central pressure of 892 mb at its strongest, which lashed the western side of Jamaica with high winds, incredible storm surge, and prolonged rainfall. All of these factors contributed to 95 known fatalities as of the report, released February 26, 2026.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot 2026-02-25 095044-1772038470377.png">The origins trace back to a tropical wave emerging off of the western coast of Africa on October 13th. By midnight on the 26th, Melissa had rapidly developed into a major hurricane. With weak steering, the forecast track was HIGHLY uncertain. Even with this uncertainty, the forecast track was incredibly accurate by the National Hurricane Center (below)<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot 2026-02-25 095418-1772038476153.png">What's going to gain more attention is the upgrade to 190 mph winds. According to the National Hurricane Center, even though they didn't directly observe the winds specifically:<blockquote>"Based on a blend of satellite estimates, flight-level wind and dropsonde data"</blockquote>This ties it with Hurricane Allen from 1980, which was the previous strongest hurricane recorded in the Atlantic Basin.In March, the World Meteorological Organization <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/wmo-retires-the-name-melissa-following-devastating-impacts-last-fall">announced they were</a> retiring the name in the wake of the devastation. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 065440-1793193323670.png">The storm also produced the strongest wind gust ever recorded: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/hurricane-melissa-produces-strongest-gust-recorded-in-a-hurricane">Watch Here</a>Official Report from the National Hurricane Center: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL132025_Melissa.pdf">READ IT HERE</a> Josh Morgerman reliving Melissa: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/iCyclone/status/2009330402310381611?s=20">WATCH IT HERE</a>

Patrick Crawford

Anniversary: Hurricane Melissa Makes Landfall in Jamaica

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Brittany Lockley

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A surge of tropical moisture associated with Tropical Storm Vance is increasing the threat of heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of Texas as the state prepares for Halloween.&nbsp;Moisture streaming northward from the tropical system is expected to interact with an approaching system, creating favorable conditions for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some communities could experience repeated rounds of heavy rain, increasing the potential for flooding in vulnerable areas.&nbsp;Flood watches are in effect for the western half of Texas.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-29 062141-1793276844122.png">The greatest concern is Thursday, when portions of western and central Texas could experience periods of intense rainfall. The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted an area stretching from Del Rio northward toward Lubbock under a Level 2 out of 4 excessive rainfall risk.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-29 062946-1793277018281.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-29 063002-1793277018279.png">Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are possible across parts of the region, with locally higher amounts where thunderstorms repeatedly develop over the same locations. These heavier downpours could overwhelm drainage systems and cause rapid rises in creeks, streams and low-lying roadways.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-29 063045-1793277061105.png">The timing of the rainfall could also affect outdoor Halloween activities, particularly in communities where thunderstorms persist into the evening hours. Families planning celebrations should monitor local forecasts and have indoor alternatives available if conditions become hazardous.&nbsp;<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/2026-10-29 06-32-27-1793277191733.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Texas emergency management officials have begun preparing for potential flooding by activating response resources ahead of the anticipated rainfall. Residents are encouraged to monitor weather alerts, review their emergency plans and avoid traveling through flooded roadways.&nbsp;Flash flooding remains one of the most dangerous weather-related threats because water levels can rise quickly, sometimes with little warning. Motorists should never attempt to cross water-covered roads, as even relatively shallow moving water can sweep vehicles away.&nbsp;

Tropical Moisture From Vance Raises Flash Flood Concerns Across Texas Ahead of Halloween

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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The Southwest is getting active once again, just a week after the region experienced extreme river flooding, hail, and <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weather.gov/fgz/text-product?site=FGZ&amp;product=PNS">even tornadoes</a>. <div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2114696042398761025" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2114696042398761025"></div>A trio of low pressure systems will swing through the Southwest starting on Friday, lasting through the weekend, bringing several rounds of rain, storms, and snow to the region.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-29 063736-1793277472792.png">An isolated, Marginal, threat for flooding is in effect across Southern California, Nevada, and Arizona for Saturday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 041154-1793182346707.png">This could mean a soggy and cold Halloween for Trick or Treaters on Saturday. We are still several days away, but some of the longer-range forecast models are bringing in widespread precipitation for Halloween.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/2026-10-28 04-14-01-1793182485434.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>There looks to also be some snowfall accumulation for the higher elevations. Specifically, the Rocky Mountains in Colorado look to get some fresh snowfall.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/1-1793238917055.png">More on your Western Regional Forecast can always be found :50 past the hour on WeatherNation.

Another Round of Heavy Rain Targets the Southwest This Weekend

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Kevin Schneider

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This week, the ocean is coming to low-lying areas near you! King tides are back for the next several months, which will lead to sunny day ocean water flooding for vulnerable areas at times. <div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2115058432051126377" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2115058432051126377"></div> The exact highest tide will vary for different locations, but through the end of the next several months, when the moon is nearly full, high and low tides will be elevated. In 2026 into 2027, this will occur during the end of the month, through January.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2115783209619210352" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2115783209619210352"></div><h1>What Causes King Tides?</h1>The Earth's orbit around the Sun is offset a bit, meaning the distance to the Sun varies throughout the year. The Earth's closest point to the Sun occurs in early January, meaning the gravitational effects of the Sun on the oceans increase through early January. When the moon is full and closer to the Earth (perigee), this adds another pull of gravity and increases the tides further. This will occur toward the end of October, November, December, and January, increasing the range of tides.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-24 053902-1792843085873.png">In October, the full moon occurs on the 26th while the moon's closest point to Earth happens just a few days later. This will help create some of the highest tides of the year for many areas along the U.S. East Coast.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-24 054717-1792843101424.png"><h1>East Coast</h1><h2>Florida</h2>Coastal flood alerts are in effect for the Atlantic Coast of Florida, all the way up into Virginia. High tide flooding could leave vulnerable areas under a foot or two of water at times, leading to various impacts, including closed roads.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/WEB 1-1793279864445.png"><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2115171683250344379" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2115171683250344379"></div>Florida's highest tide cycles of the fall season will occur in October and November, with the highest tides of October's cycle happened Tuesday morning. Low-lying areas will have several rounds of flooding this week, so it's best to avoid low-lying areas during high tide times.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/WEB 2-1793279914610.png"><h2>Carolinas</h2>The latest forecast is showing the tides are decreasing in height over the next few days. While this is good news, if you are traveling along the coast stay vigilant driving through flood waters!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/WEB 3-1793279979406.png"><h2><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-24 055652-1792844169803.png">Mid-Atlantic &amp; Northeast</h2>Minor coastal flooding is expected in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast during the October cycle of king tides. Low-lying areas could see flooding inundate areas with about a foot of water. In New England, the highest tides should occur during the November and December cycles.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-24 061926-1792844685757.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-24 061930-1792844699823.png"><h1>West Coast</h1><h2>California</h2>California is already experiencing elevated tides due to El Niño and a surge of warm water up the coast, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/incoming-kelvin-wave-to-southern-california-one-piece-of-the-el-nino-puzzle">known as a Marine Kelvin Wave</a>. Several large wave events this fall have damaged numerous homes along the coast as well. As a result, King Tide impacts in California could be more significant this season compared to past years. Alerts have been issued from San Diego up past the Bay Area.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/WEB 5-1793280107889.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-24 063244-1792845194824.png">The highest tides of the October cycle occurred on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, though the highest tides of the year are expected in December.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/WEB 4-1793280080491.png"><h2><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-24 061945-1792844713149.png">Oregon &amp; Washington</h2>The highest tides of the year for Washington and Oregon are expected later this year as well, during the December high tide cycle. A full "supermoon" will aid in making these tides quite impactful.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-24 063406-1792845257233.png">

Tracey Anthony

Sunny Day Flooding; King Tides Surge This Week

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Hopefully the costume's picked out by now, the candy receptacle is made or purchased, and physical conditioning is in peak form! It's the week of Halloween which has all of the spooky lovers in a good mood. The only thing that might get in the way is Mother Nature.<h1>TREATS</h1>We'll start with the easy ones since forecasting multiple days in advance can be a little frightening to meteorologists. But signals can be a little clearer about who has it going well, weather-wise. Focusing on Fri-Sun, it's hard to complain about Denver's setup. A building ridge should keep things eerily quiet on the weather front this weekend.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 041019-1793182235443.png">Roughly, a line from the Front Range into the High Plains should be good to go if the timing/placement of this ridge is nailed down. That means we just have to prepare for the festivities, with some help from the Red Cross<h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-26 080023-1793024061010.png">TRICKS</h1>This is where things get...tricky. Right now, the two different areas that are of some concern are the Southern Plains and the West. Another strong trough will pour onshore late in the week, keeping things out west pretty active. Ahead of that trough, plenty of moisture will get pulled north out of the Gulf, which could help fuel stronger storms, depending on how things come together. <video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/2026-10-28 07-16-00-1793193391574.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Along and downstream of that feature rippling through the Midwest and eventually the Mid-Atlantic might want to watch the timing on things, just to be sure an umbrella doesn't need to become a part of the costume too. It's too soon to know if it'll be a washout that affects plans all day or splash-n-dash storms that pick on a particular timeframe.<h1>FALL BACK</h1>Also, remember to set the clocks back an hour going into Sunday. Otherwise, you'll be waking up an hour early when you could have been sleeping off the candy coma instead. Might be a good weekend to replace the batteries in the smoke detectors and weather radios, too!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-26 080329-1793024897195.png">Or maybe take the day to ease into a new way of life, with sunsets closer to 5:00. Although latitude has something to do with it, location within your timezone has a lot to say too.

HALLOWEEN 2026: Is the weather a Trick or a Treat?

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Things are getting active again after a long break from storms in the Midwest. A developing area of low pressure looks like it might have all of the ingredients to spin up a few tornadoes, some of which could even be strong later this afternoon.<h1>SETUP</h1>As this area of low pressure comes together, storms will ignite in the heat of the day. While it won't be Spring- or Summer-like energy to tap into, it looks like it will be just enough as temperatures make a run at record highs in Wisconsin.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 041715-1793183302202.png">The biggest concerning ingredient is the amount of wind shear present, with winds at the surface out of the south or even southeast, turning to the southwest with height.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 041748-1793182843267.png">Storms are expected to be organized shortly after firing in the afternoon. Because of the high amounts of shear, all modes of severe weather will be on the table. That includes the potential for an EF-2+ tornado. Have ways to get alerts as we go through our Wednesday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 063732-1793191060076.jpg"><h1>Timing</h1>Because we're expecting storms to fire near the surface low, they might go up and become severe in a hurry. The severe threat is active now into the evening hours.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/BARON 5-1793224753314.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Jesse Kelley

Tornado Threat Develops Around the Twin Cities Today

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After becoming a hurricane last Friday, Vance has weakened to a tropical storm. It's moved far enough away from the Mexican coast to take most of the winds, but some rain continues to graze some parts of the coastline. Its slow movement will mean long-lasting coastal wave action and erosion potential. The good news is, it should weaken as it enters an unfavorable environment early this week. A landfall in Mexico late this week is possible.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 035927-1793181579785.png">Tropical Storm Olana formed in the Central Pacific Ocean this week but has since become post-tropical. This storm is west of the Hawaiian Islands. Hawaii can see multiple inches of rain from the moisture from Olana through Saturday. Here's the latest forecast from our Global American model.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 035952-1793181606298.png"><h1>El Niño Fueling Pacific Activity</h1>The Eastern Pacific has set a new record for the most energetic season since record-keeping began. The ACE has surpassed 318, which was the previous record set in 2018.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-27 192512-1793150722562.png">The surge in tropical activity comes as El Nino continues to strengthen across the equatorial Pacific. El Nino is characterized by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures across portions of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Those unusually warm waters can influence weather patterns around the globe while also creating an environment that can favor tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific.This year’s El Nino has already strengthened considerably, and forecasts indicate it could become exceptionally strong later this year.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-12 063433-1789216512410.png">

Tropical Storm Vance Weakens in the Pacific

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I want to stress that this forecast is very far out and there will likely be some changes to the timing and snowfall amounts, but it's definitely worth watching.  Right now this scenario is for the weekend of January 20th and 21st.
<h2>Winter Storm Set-Up</h2>
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Long range forecast models are hinting at a large trough of low pressure moving through the southwestern United States by next weekend.  Based on how far south this trough goes, this could lead to a large winter storm for the Central Rockies.  The low pressure will provide the energy and there will be plenty of cold air in all layers of the atmosphere to produce heavy snow.
<h2>Snowfall Potential</h2>
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Here is the latest long range snow accumulation map with a focus on Colorado.  This is showing the possibility of over 12" of snow for parts of Fort Collins, Longmont and Denver.
<h2>Why Look at Forecasts So Far Out?</h2>
I always refer to these extended outlooks as "Keep and eye out" forecasts.  Now that I have seen forecast models showing the potential of a winter storm, it's something that we will keep an eye on over the next several days.  If forecast models continue to show this winter storm, that means we are growing more confidence in this particular forecast.  Stay tuned...

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<a href="https://www.facebook.com/MeteorologistPC/">Meteorologist Patrick Crawford</a>

Potential Winter Storm for the Central Rockies Next Weekend (Not This Weekend...Next Weekend)

Winter Storm Set-Up

Snowfall Potential

Why Look at Forecasts So Far Out?

Anniversary: Hurricane Melissa Makes Landfall in Jamaica

NEW HOME, JAMAICA - October 28, 2025, will be

Tropical Moisture From Vance Raises Flash Flood Concerns Across Texas Ahead of Halloween

A surge of tropical moisture associated with

Another Round of Heavy Rain Targets the Southwest This Weekend

The Southwest is getting active once again, j

Sunny Day Flooding; King Tides Surge This Week

This week, the ocean is coming to low-lying a

HALLOWEEN 2026: Is the weather a Trick or a Treat?

Hopefully the costume's picked out by now, th

Tornado Threat Develops Around the Twin Cities Today

Things are getting active again after a long

Tropical Storm Vance Weakens in the Pacific

After becoming a hurricane last Friday, Vance