While smoke and heat have made headlines in the Midwest and Northeast this week, a cold front will usher in a big change this weekend with a chance for widespread strong and severe storms. The low pressure system brought strong storms to North Dakota on Thursday, including a tornado! As the low moves from the Great Lakes in to Canada, an extended frontal boundary will drop across the Midwest and East Coast, tapping into widespread heat and humidity. The SPC has issued an enhanced risk (level 3 out of 5) from northeast Ohio through the Chesapeake Bay (top of page), but the lower end risk (green region) covers a massive area from Iowa to Maine to Georgia. Wind is expected to pose the greatest threat, with downed trees and powerlines expected from the stronger storms.

Several tornadoes are possible as well, with an elevated risk from Cleveland through Philadelphia and New York City.

By Sunday, the risk follows the front south into Virginia and the Carolinas as the front drops into the Southeast. Damaging winds will likely be the most widespread threat once again.

Forecast

A few severe storms are expected Friday afternoon and evening around the Ohio Valley and Mid-South, as well as across Northern Michigan. On Saturday, a few strong storms are possible by around midday in between the fronts before the primary bands of storms develop later in the day. A squall line is being depicted by several forecast models along the boundary, which could produce the most widespread wind damage in the storm sequence. Storms look to gradually lose energy overnight as the front continues to dig farther south. Sunday afternoon will likely see another line of strong storms develop along the front.

Rain rates will be high enough in the Northeast to create isolated to scattered flash flooding. The WPC has highlighted areas from Eastern Pennsylvania through the Cape of Massachusetts, including New York City, with the higher risk for flooding (below). As always, if you live in a flood prone area and a flash flood warning is issued, seek higher ground!