Brittany Lockley

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A moisture-rich weather pattern is expected to keep portions of Texas and the western Gulf Coast under the threat of heavy rainfall and flash flooding through the coming days. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are forecast to develop over many of the same locations, increasing the potential for flooding, particularly in central and southern Texas.&nbsp;Governor Greg Abbot to activated emergency response resources for 59 Texas counties. As a result, the Texas National Guard and the Department of Public Safety will be deployed as needed.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2077104136101761469" src="https://x.com/GovAbbottPress/status/2077104136101761469"></div>The unsettled pattern is being fueled by a persistent flow of tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico combined with weak steering currents in the atmosphere. Because winds aloft are relatively light, thunderstorms will move slowly and may repeatedly track over the same areas. This process, known as training, can produce excessive rainfall totals in a short period of time and quickly overwhelm creeks, rivers and drainage systems.&nbsp;Some of the greatest concern is focused on the Texas Hill Country, where steep terrain and fast-responding waterways make the region especially susceptible to flash flooding. Even a few hours of intense rainfall can cause water levels to rise rapidly, creating dangerous conditions for motorists and residents near streams and low-water crossings. Locations that have already received recent rainfall will be more vulnerable because saturated soils have a reduced ability to absorb additional water.&nbsp;Flood Watches are in place through Friday, with life-threatening flooding possible. Rainfall rates of 1"-2" per hour are possible, with 8+ inches of rain possible over the next few days. Cities like Kerrville, Fort Stockton, and Austin are included in the Flood Watch.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 084808-1784126894016.png">The threat extends beyond the Hill Country into parts of South Texas, where slow-moving thunderstorms may produce torrential downpours, frequent lightning and isolated strong wind gusts. Urban areas could experience localized street flooding as rainfall rates exceed the capacity of storm drains, while rural communities may see rapid rises on smaller creeks and rivers.&nbsp;<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/0715-1784126945683.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Heavy rain will be possible, with the highest totals around the Big Bend, with isolated totals of a foot possible for some parts. Please use caution and never attempt to drive through flood waters.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 084913-1784126958417.png">There has already been over 13" of rainfall recorded.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 084924-1784126969952.png">The active weather pattern will linger for several days before gradually shifting later in the week. Until then, abundant Gulf moisture and daytime heating will continue to provide the ingredients for repeated rounds of heavy rain, keeping the flash flood threat elevated across much of the region.&nbsp;The Weather Prediction Center has issued Excessive Rainfall Outlooks. The WPC has issued a rare, HIGH risk (level 4 out of 4) for significant to catastrophic flooding through Wednesday 6-10" of rain has already been recorded, and an additional 3-6" with isolated totals up to 10" are possible. This includes places such as Rocksprings, Uvalde, and Del Rio. High risk days account for 80% of all flood related damages.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 034305-1784108612070.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 034313-1784108621969.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 034318-1784108631241.png">Residents in flood-prone areas should remain alert for Flash Flood Watches and Warnings and never attempt to drive through flooded roadways. Water levels can rise quickly during slow-moving thunderstorms, and even shallow, fast-moving water can sweep vehicles off the road.&nbsp;For more info on this forecast, you can tune into the Central Regional Forecast at :30 past the hour.

Taban Sharifi

Texas Facing Major Flood Threat This week

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Taban Sharifi grew up in Southern California between Los Angeles and San Diego. She is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) with the American Meteorological Society (AMS). She has a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Environmental Sciences with a minor in Environmental Systems and Society from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Go Bruins! While in school, Taban was a meteorology intern with NBC LA. There she helped forecast daily weather for the greater Los Angeles region and created a playbook to deploy weather sensors for NBC owned-and-operated stations across the country. Her first on-air job took her to San Angelo, Texas, where she was a morning meteorologist and co-anchor. Working in West Texas gave her knowledge and experience covering severe storms. From there, she moved to Palm Springs, California. People think forecasting in California is sunshine all the time, but with temperatures in the 120’s, wildfires, damaging winds, floodings, and earthquakes, the forecasting kept her very busy! She also worked there as a general assignment reporter and told community stories. Taban is excited for the challenge and opportunity to forecast nationally with WeatherNation. She also looks forward to exploring all that Colorado has to offer!

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Dangerous heat and record high temperatures continue across the High Plains through the Upper Midwest, eventually moving into the Northeast for this week. A new record high temperature was broken in Rapid City, South Dakota, on Tuesday.ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS were broken across the Western United States on Sunday, July 12th, including cities such as Billings, Montana, reaching a scorching 111° (searing the previous all-time record of 107°) and Salt Lake City, Utah, reaching a toasty 109°, which beat out the previous record set in September of 2022 at 107°.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot20260712193832png-1783906806701.png" alt="main">Heat Alerts remain in place through Thursday across many areas throughout the northern tier of the U.S.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 034042-1784108452046.png">Heat safety will be a continued concern going forward. Be sure to stay hydrated and keep looking in the back seat before locking the car. The heatwave continues for the High Plains and Upper Midwest but has shifted to include the northeastern United States through tomorrow.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 034104-1784108476710.png">Temperatures in the northeast will be widespread in the 90s, with a few locations hitting the century mark.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 034129-1784108502754.png"><h2>Southwest</h2>Dangerous Heat is also being sought across the Southwest this week. Heat alerts have been expanded across California, from the Bay Area to San Diego.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 034212-1784108548489.png">Temperatures will be above normal with dewpoints reaching into the 60s. The added layer of humidity will make it difficult for your body to cool off efficiently and effectively.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 034239-1784108571374.png">Here are a few heat safety tips for people affected by the heat.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/pic5-1783634512392.png">More on your Western Regional Forecast can always be found :50 past the hour on WeatherNation.

Adrian Hernandez

Historic Heatwave Hits the Northern Rockies, California Heat Expands

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As temperatures have soared across the Northern U.S., dry conditions have allowed new wildfires. These wildfires burning in Northwestern Ontario, Canada, will send extremely dense smoke into the U.S. on Wednesday. Forecast models show thick, dense smoke sneaking into the Great Lakes before moving across to the Northeast. Below is the latest on the timing and intensity of smoke that is expected across the U.S. Air quality dropped on Tuesday night, and air quality changes are expected as the smoke moves through.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 033756-1784108288952.png">The heat, elevated ozone levels, and anticipated smoke have prompted Air Quality alerts across the Great Lakes and the Northeast. The air quality will continue to deteriorate as smoke moves into the area.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 033906-1784108359854.png">Smoke in the air can bring about all sorts of health impacts. Make sure you are protecting yourself and your loved ones.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-14 161806-1784067504415.png">

Canadian Wildfires to Send Thick Dense Smoke Across The Northern U.S.

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After weeks of hot and mostly dry weather, the Southwest is beginning its transition into the annual North American Monsoon Season. A shift in the overall weather pattern is allowing deeper moisture to move north from the Pacific and Gulf, setting the stage for a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms across parts of Arizona, New Mexico, southern Utah, southern Colorado, and Nevada. Arizona itself saw some stronger storms with wind gusts up to 78 mph!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-14 041114-1784023886071.png">The North American monsoon is a seasonal wind shift that occurs each summer, transporting moisture from the eastern Pacific Ocean and Gulf of California into the Desert Southwest. As the moist air combines with intense daytime heating and mountainous terrain, thunderstorms become much more common during the afternoon and evening hours.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 031441-1784106894823.png">The first surge of monsoonal moisture is expected to increase storm coverage through the coming days. While many of these storms will produce beneficial rainfall for areas experiencing drought, they will also be capable of dropping heavy rain over a short period of time. Because the Southwest’s dry soils do not absorb water efficiently, runoff can develop quickly, creating a heightened risk of flash flooding in washes, slot canyons, and other low-lying locations.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 031553-1784106964189.png">Recently burned areas will be particularly susceptible to flooding and debris flows. Vegetation lost to wildfires leaves hillsides unable to absorb rainfall, allowing water, mud, and rocks to move rapidly downhill during intense thunderstorms. There are Marginal and Slight risks for excessive rainfall and flooding over currently burning fires across Utah and Colorado.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 031645-1784107029728.png">As the monsoon continues to strengthen through July, residents and visitors across the Southwest should be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions each afternoon. Even short-lived storms can produce dangerous flash flooding, making it important to avoid flooded roadways and never enter fast-moving water.

Monsoon Moisture Returns to the Southwest, Increasing Storm and Flash Flood Potential

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Originally born in Spokane, Washington,  Jackie's Dad was in the Air Force which led her to a life of travel. She has lived in Wichita, Okinawa, Japan, Baltimore, New Jersey, Indiana and South Carolina.  After graduating from Kadena High School, in Okinawa Japan, she got a full basketball scholarship to Coppin State College. On the court she was a 4-year starter and reached over 1000 points in her basketball career. She was also named Athlete of the Year for the whole university in 2002. Off the court, she earned a degree in Broadcast Production/English.

After college, she landed a job as a radio personality. Jackie went on to have a successful career for 12 years working at KXLY broadcast center. While on the radio, she decided to change career. Jackie went back to school, graduating from the Mississippi State Meteorology Broadcast Program. From snow, to tornadoes, to hurricanes, she has had experience forecasting all these events.

Jackie Brown

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<h1>WHAT TO EXPECT </h1>The SPC has issued a severe outlook for the overnight hours across portions of New England. Damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes will be possible as a cold front moves through. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/overnighss-1784081785591.png">TIMING As the frontal boundary moves to the south, storms will develop through the overnight hours. Any storms that do develop will have the potential to be strong to severe. By mid-morning, things look to be calm, but more isolated storms can pop up in the afternoon once again on Wednesday. <video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/cold front moves throuiggg-1784081898924.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>How weird is it to be talking about severe weather this far north in New England? A little odd. The last Enhanced risk for the state of Vermont, for instance, was almost two years ago! The last High risk was back in May of 1998!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-14 035709-1784023051718.png">More on your full Eastern Regional Forecast can always be found :10 past the hour on WeatherNation.

Rare Enhanced Severe Threat For New England

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Kevin Schneider

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<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2074923974841041110" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2074923974841041110"></div>Hazy skies will be hovering over portions of the Gulf and the Southeastern United States as we head into the workweek. Why is it so hazy? Saharan dust will be sent flying over the region at times, thick enough to make a difference in the color of the sun and potentially to air quality. Expect some of the thickest dust to hover over Florida and push into Texas this week.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/2026-07-14 04-00-34-1784023254099.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>This is not unusual for this time of year. Outbreaks of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) typically occur in the Atlantic during the summer months as strong westerly waves move off of Africa, sending dust out over the Atlantic. Depending on the speed and intensity of the SAL outbreak, these plumes of dry, dusty air can reach parts of the U.S. at times, even the middle of the country!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-08 083614-1783521420831.png"><h1>Heat</h1>Hot and humid conditions will persist in the Southeast while the Saharan Air moves through. While the SAL does dry out the mid-levels of the atmosphere, the bottom 5,000 feet is typically unaffected, meaning humidity won't change much even though there may be fewer storms.<h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-14 040117-1784023294181.png"> </h1>

Saharan Dust and Excessive Heat Impact the Southeast

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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Several rounds of severe weather have been rolling off the Front Range into the Great Plains this week! A mid-level trough sparked severe weather Friday afternoon, bringing damaging winds and hail. At the Denver International Airport, wind gusted up to 72 mph.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/1-1783736213990.png"><h1>FRIDAY:</h1>Damaging winds will be the primary threat along the Front Range and east into the Plains. Large hail is possible as well.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-10 063841-1783687129662.png"><h2>Timing</h2>Storms continue to push eastward into the Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas for the late hours. Storms should fizzle out by daybreak Saturday morning.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/BARON 5-1783736334233.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>A few locations could get hit a couple of times by thunderstorms this week, which means that some areas may see some locally heavier rainfall totals. Keep an eye on flood alerts in your area. With repeated rounds of storms, you may be at risk for flash flooding.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-10 064026-1783687247364.png">Flash flooding will be possible for many areas, though it will be more likely for some than others. Areas in dark green in the Excessive Rainfall Outlook (below) will have better chance to see scattered flash flooding incidents.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/1-1783736373460.png">For more on this active forecast, be sure to join us on WeatherNation!

Jesse Kelley

Another Day of Storms for the Plains & Front Range

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Severe storms have been working through the Sunshine State for the better part of the last 2 days. These have been primarily wind producers, with some sporadic 60-65 mph gusts being clocked. They were high enough to knock out power around the Daytona Beach area in the early morning hours of Wednesday.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/05/VON_051524_RSE_APOPKA,FL_JUST OUTSIDE OF ORLANDO LOOKING NORTH AT BIG AM STORMS IN CENTRAL FLORIDA_TW_@AVGEEKFINSO_DO_E051524-1715775422402.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The Storm Prediction Center has maintained northern Florida and southern Georgia under a SLIGHT (level 2 out of 5) risk for severe storms Wednesday. Our forecast models have the strongest storms pushing through these spots by the evening.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/05/SPC Day 1 FL Wed-1715775326889.png">Storms will last into the afternoon, targeting the Orlando and Tampa areas. All modes of severe weather will be on the table, including a few quick spin-ups later today. The storm threat continues into South Florida on Thursday with a marginal risk in store for much of the southern part of the state. Be prepared for gusty winds and an isolated tornado. <video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/05/cold front 2-1715737311335.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Since storms have been lingering in the same areas for extended periods, flash flooding will be a concern, even as we move into the afternoon and evening.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/05/FL Rain forecast-1715775277185.png">

Lucy Bergemann