Kevin Schneider

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We are now a week after the climatological peak of Atlantic Hurricane Season, so where is the activity? Several factors contribute to this season being extremely quiet so far. For one, it has been dry and stable with more wind shear around the Atlantic Basin. That has helped limit storm development off the coast of Africa. Invest 92L has become organized enough to be dubbed Tropical Depression Seven. This will likely become Gabrielle in the next day or so as it moves northwest. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-17 030509-1758099925464.png">Currently, there is no direct hazard to land, however it might be a close call for the island of Bermuda. Many of the spaghetti plots that take it out to sea sooner are stronger - if it were to remain weak, it could affect some islands, but it might not be a tropical storm at that point.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-17 025830-1758099890670.png">Meanwhile, in the next few days, a plume of Saharan dust will move around the tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic, reducing chances for thunderstorms to organize, but there is a potential for some slow development after the fact.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/09-16 saharan dust-1758076139006.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>There is another tropical wave that the NHC is also monitoring set to roll off of the west coast of Africa. Nothing is expected to develop in the next few days, with the earliest timeline starting this weekend for that one<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-16 202919-1758076167654.png">Do not let your guard down! September is historically the peak of hurricane season, and ocean conditions remain favorable for additional development. However, the NHC urges residents along the Atlantic basin to monitor updates closely.<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/W2bhqfX0B0A" start="0"></iframe></div>What is slightly concerning are the water temperatures in the Gulf. Right now, they are 1°C warmer than they usually are for this time of the year. That being said, it's been tough to get anything over those warm waters so far this season-let's hope that continues.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-13 051452-1757762098585.jpg">As always, preparedness is key. Whether or not this particular system develops into a named storm, it serves as a reminder that the Atlantic remains active and that the window for tropical threats is far from closed. Tune into WeatherNation TV for the latest updates.

ATLANTIC: Tropical Depression Seven Forms

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CENTRAL U.S - A trough pushing in from the west has been responsible for severe storms across the High Plains since this weekend. As of Monday, after Sunday's event, North Dakota has set a new record for the year with over 62 tornadoes! Over the next few days, we can see more rounds of severe weather, but hopefully away from North Dakota.Related: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/north-dakota-breaks-yearly-tornado-record">Dakota Tornado Record Falls Over the Weekend</a><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-16 201836-1758075571181.png">The area of greatest concern is centered on North Platte, NE, but could stretch as far north as the arrowhead of Minnesota. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary concerns, but a few tornadoes remain possible through Wednesday morning.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-16 201958-1758075605698.png">Storms will continue to blossom in coverage through the overnight hours.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/09-16 rbnc 00z-1758075644181.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Over the next 5 days, multiple inches of rain will be possible over already saturated grounds. We have seen flooding across portions of the Northern Plains, and this threat will continue through this week. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-16 202100-1758075691926.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-16 202152-1758075719203.png">Always use caution with flood waters, as you never know how deep the water is. Turn Around, Don't Drown.

Alana Cameron

Storms Picking on the High Plains

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We've got a low-pressure system out over the open waters, sitting on the warm Gulf Stream waters in the middle of September. Sounds like tropical mischief, right? While nothing is expected to gain tropical characteristics over the next day or so, we could still have mischief.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-15 091914-1757949628000.png"><h2>Forecast Rainfall</h2>Arguably, the biggest impact of this low spinning onshore will be the rainfall, especially where it falls, with many of the highest totals concentrated in North Carolina and Virginia.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-16 201740-1758075465932.png">An excessive rainfall outlook has been issued through Wednesday for rainfall totals upwards of 3-5" with localized maximums being even higher.<h1>Forecast Winds</h1>It might not be "tropical," but the highest wind gusts could approach tropical-storm-force at times. It looks like it might not be the wind that causes a ton of problems, but the direction of the wind: coastal flooding and rip current risks could pose some dangerous problems at times. Coastal inundation is only expected to approach a foot or two in low-lying, susceptible areas of the coast but the rip current risk is high along the shorelines.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-16 095512-1758038124243.png">

Coastal Low Spins Trouble Onshore

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The dry time has been a little hard to enjoy the last week or two in South Florida. While this is the rainy season, and we're making up for a slow start to it, you can still roll your eyes at what the extended forecasts have looked like recently. In fact, some spots in South Florida have already had their wettest start to September, including Miami.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-16 163631-1758062210080.png">On the other end of the spectrum, some northern Florida spots have really missed out, making it the driest start to September in areas such as Gainesville and Tallahassee.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-16 163641-1758062216443.png">So why? Just because Florida likes to have the most fun? Well, actually, a frontal boundary keeps these storms coming for days. While we've had a couple of days of relief, more moisture is in the forecast for South Florida.That, along with a TON of moisture to work with, is attempting to catch up some drought-stricken areas of the Sunshine State. The Drought Monitor updated on Thursday and had some pretty sizeable improvements in South Florida.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/2025-09-11 09-39-57-1757605257541.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>So while it might be easy to complain about beach plans constantly getting ruined, it has its benefits. Our biggest concern is the lightning threat associated with any Florida thunderstorm, but especially this time of year, with people outdoors. Anytime it rains this heavily, of course, the flash flooding threat will be there as well. Some areas could receive another 3-5 inches before the rain chances start to back off next week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-16 202232-1758075768673.png">

Florida Rainfall: Nuisance or Beneficial?

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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While the Atlantic has been relatively quiet this season, the Eastern Pacific has been more active, particularly in recent months. Early Saturday morning, Mario dissipated southwest of the Baja Peninsula, only to reemerge Sunday morning as a tropical storm. One other tropical wave has a likely chance of developing over the next week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-15 184318-1757983404971.png"><h1>Monitoring Mario</h1>Mario has once again weakened, upon encountering cooler sea surface temperatures and enhanced shear. It was downgraded to a Tropical Depression Tuesday afternoon, but will likely be a remnant low as it slowly moves northwest into late Tuesday night.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-16 143939-1758055186809.png">Mario is expected to drift WNW, eventually sending some of its moisture into Southern California by mid-to-late week, possibly leading to flooding. No direct impacts are expected from this system in the United States.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/09-15_rsw mario-1757983442769.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Administrator

Eastern Pacific: Mario Weakens, Sends Moisture to California

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Did you see them? Many might have had better things to do this weekend but if you were paying attention to Space Weather, you got a treat! NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center upped the expectation late last night, with some dazzling results.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1967422118729273403" src="https://x.com/NWSSWPC/status/1967422118729273403"></div>The problem for many in the plains was cloud-cover, with evening storms making it difficult to see the lights behind the lightning, but some were lucky to sneak between the clouds.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-15 092335-1757950156965.png">Granted, it might have been difficult to see with the naked eye. Many of the photos we've seen have mentioned a long exposure that was needed to see the fun. Either way, it's gorgeous if you can figure it out.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-15 092324-1757950271340.png">While it wasn't the most robust solar storm we've seen in the past 2 years, it was well worth it for some! We're not expecting another show, however.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-15 134825-1757965711698.png">

Jackie Brown

Northern Lights Close Out the Weekend For Many

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Grab the pumpkin spice and apple cider donuts, fall foliage is started to grace some areas across the United States, with more developing this week! The latest forecast from <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.explorefall.com/fall-foliage-map">Explore Fall</a> (top of page) shows developing color across the Rockies, Cascades, High Sierra, and the Upper-Midwest, near the Canadian border, over the next seven days (September 8th - 14th). Recent wildfire activity in the Sierra may make color there a bit more muted or highly variable between patches of trees. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-08 104753-1757350314424.png">Color has already been showing some for areas in the map above (yellow areas), mostly in the Rockies and Cascades. In fact, we've seen the Bigtooth Maples change quite a bit in the Wasatch Mountains near Salt Lake City!<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1964055938010067402" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1964055938010067402"></div>The most 30 days prior to the appearance of fall color are the most important for vibrancy during the peak season, but drought conditions can also lead to more muted color or variable conditions. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-08 105237-1757350392233.png">For great fall color, sunny days with cool, crisp nights are preferable. Though rain is welcome at times to keep the trees from drying out.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-08 105303-1757350398827.png">

Fall Color Starting to Show In Parts of the Lower 48

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Parts of New Mexico and far west Texas could see some isolated severe storms today.  We are not looking a big threat for tornadoes, but the threat for damaging winds and large hail will be possible within any storms that develop.

A large area of low pressure will be moving over the Four Corners today...setting up the potential for severe storms.

<img class="alignnone wp-image-90343 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/04/atl-1.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />
<h2>Severe Outlook</h2>
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Marginal Risk of severe weather today from Albuquerque south to El Paso.  These are the areas that could see an isolated severe storm later today.

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<h2>Severe Weather Threats</h2>
<img class="alignnone wp-image-90346 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/04/Capture2-10.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

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Damaging winds over 60 mph and hail up to 1" in diameter will be possible in these areas.  The tornado risk is much lower and it should not be a risk with today's storm chances.
<h2>Forecast</h2>
Here is the latest timing of when these storms should fire up.  Right now it looks like this will be an afternoon and evening event.  Brief pockets of heavy rain will also be possible withing some of the stronger storms.

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<img class="alignnone wp-image-90349 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/04/Capture4-7.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

<img class="alignnone wp-image-90351 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/04/Capture6-3.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

<img class="alignnone wp-image-90348 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/04/Capture5-7.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

Stay tuned to <a href="https://www.facebook.com/WeatherNation/">WeatherNation</a> for more updates on today's severe chances.

&nbsp;

<a href="https://www.facebook.com/MeteorologistPC/">Meteorologist Patrick Crawford</a>

&nbsp;

Thursday Severe Weather Update

Severe Outlook

Severe Weather Threats

Forecast

ATLANTIC: Tropical Depression Seven Forms

We are now a week after the climatological pe

Storms Picking on the High Plains

CENTRAL U.S - A trough pushing in from the we

Coastal Low Spins Trouble Onshore

We've got a low-pressure system out over the

Florida Rainfall: Nuisance or Beneficial?

The dry time has been a little hard to enjoy

Eastern Pacific: Mario Weakens, Sends Moisture to California

While the Atlantic has been relatively quiet

Northern Lights Close Out the Weekend For Many

Did you see them? Many might have had better

Fall Color Starting to Show In Parts of the Lower 48

Grab the pumpkin spice and apple cider donuts