CSU Updates Their Tropical Outlook

news image
Special Stories
18 Jun 2025 12:00 AM

JUNE 11, 2025

The folks at Colorado State planned on updating the outlook today and they did - no changes. They're still expecting a ENSO neutral regime to persist through the Hurricane Season. That, with above average sea surface temperatures (but not as hot as last year) should still point to a busy season. Their next update to the outlook is scheduled for July 9, with another adjustment August 6.

APRIL 3, 2025

Today, meteorologists and research scientists at Colorado State University (CSU) have released their outlook for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Dr. Phil Klotzbach and the Tropical Meteorology Project at CSU are among the first to issue an outlook for the season. Early predictions expect this year's hurricane season to be busier than average. This year they anticipate 17 named storms, 9 of which will become hurricanes and 4 of those are expected to become major hurricanes (CAT 3 or greater).

Forecast factors that contributed to their above average outlook focus on the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and sea surface temperatures. In the coming months, a transition to ENSO neutral is expected. That usually does not give a strong single for an above or below average season. However, by the end of the summer into early fall (climatological peak of hurricane season), a potential transition to La Nina is forecast. There is not much certainty on the likelihood or intensity of that La Nina transition, though. Nonetheless, an absence of El Nino which traditionally suppresses hurricane activity is enough to warrant an above average forecast.

Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic remain above average this year. SSTs are not as warm as last year's historic levels, but remain warm enough to fuel storm development later in the season.

All Weather News
More
Storms Picking on the High Plains

Storms Picking on the High Plains

CENTRAL U.S - A trough pushing in from the we

15 Sep 2025 10:45 AM
Monitoring Another Tropical Wave in the Atlantic

Monitoring Another Tropical Wave in the Atlantic

September 10th marked the climatological peak

15 Sep 2025 10:35 AM
Eastern Pacific: Mario Returns, Sends Moisture to California

Eastern Pacific: Mario Returns, Sends Moisture to California

While the Atlantic has been relatively quiet

15 Sep 2025 10:35 AM
Florida Rainfall: Nuisance or Beneficial?

Florida Rainfall: Nuisance or Beneficial?

The dry time has been a little hard to enjoy

15 Sep 2025 2:00 AM
Fall Color Starting to Show In Parts of the Lower 48

Fall Color Starting to Show In Parts of the Lower 48

Grab the pumpkin spice and apple cider donuts

15 Sep 2025 1:10 AM
Severe Storms Look More Likely This Afternoon

Severe Storms Look More Likely This Afternoon

A strong upper-level trough along with monsoo

14 Sep 2025 7:30 PM
Blocking Pattern Warms Up the Midsection

Blocking Pattern Warms Up the Midsection

Surprisingly, this isn't about football. Or a

14 Sep 2025 2:55 AM