CSU Increases Forecast for 2021 Hurricane Season

news image
Special Stories
10 Jul 2021 11:00 AM
Today meteorologists and research scientists at Colorado State University (CSU) updated one of the season’s earliest and most well-respected hurricane outlooks. This follows an update that was issued in June. The update issued in June can be found here. The latest predictions continue to anticipate this year’s hurricane season to be busier than average, increasing the number of named storms and hurricane. The update issued in June only increased the number of expected named storms. Dr. Phil Klotzbach and the Tropical Meteorology Project at CSU now anticipate 20 named storms, 9 of which becoming hurricanes and 4 of those becoming major hurricanes. This includes storms that have already formed. Dr. Phil Klotzbach, CSU Research Scientist, explained the reasoning behind the above-average forecast, which includes above average temperatures in the subtropical Atlantic Ocean, an active West African Monsoon, and the low probability for El Niño to develop. [embed]https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1413168499292319749[/embed] In fact, a La Niña watch was issued by the Climate Prediction Center on Thursday, the same day CSU updated their forecast. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mKwg1oj8UM&ab_channel=WeatherNation La Niña or ENSO neutral conditions typically favor active hurricane seasons since El Niño typically increases wind shear in the Atlantic, which helps to disrupt tropical development. https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1413171518960390148 The active monsoon in West Africa has already led to several strong easterly waves emerging in the Atlantic, one of which produced Hurricane Elsa. https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1413169757415788545 The monsoon typically leads to more tropical disturbances later in the season, especially in August and September. In addition to the forecast for an above average number of storms, CSU also predicts an above average season in ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy), Hurricane Days, and Major Hurricane Days. The forecast also predicts a 68% chance for a landfalling system for the entire east coast (this does not include the landfalls which have already occurred this season). You can read the report in its entirety here.
All Weather News
More
Potentially Catastrophic Flooding Likely for the Midsouth

Potentially Catastrophic Flooding Likely for the Midsouth

Prolonged heavy rain is expected to begin Wed

2 Apr 2025 2:35 AM
FORECAST: Relentless Severe Chances This Week

FORECAST: Relentless Severe Chances This Week

Severe chances have been easy to find in the

2 Apr 2025 2:30 AM
Heavy, Wet Snow on Northern Side of Severe Weather

Heavy, Wet Snow on Northern Side of Severe Weather

NORTHERN U.S. - Winter weather alerts continu

2 Apr 2025 2:25 AM
Wet & Snowy Western Storm System Through Wednesday

Wet & Snowy Western Storm System Through Wednesday

A strong storm system continues in California

2 Apr 2025 1:10 AM
Severe Storms Leave Damage from the Midwest to the Deep South This Week

Severe Storms Leave Damage from the Midwest to the Deep South This Week

Powerful storms raced through the Midwest and

1 Apr 2025 12:16 PM
Slight Risk For Severe Storms Overnight

Slight Risk For Severe Storms Overnight

All modes of severe weather were seen Monday

1 Apr 2025 2:55 AM
Ice Storm In the Great Lakes Through New England

Ice Storm In the Great Lakes Through New England

GREAT LAKES to NORTHEAST - As the freezing li

31 Mar 2025 1:55 AM