Brittany Lockley

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A robust upper-level trough swept through the northern Plains Saturday morning, setting the stage for a notably dynamic weather pattern once again for August. There were widespread wind reports over Nebraska, with both Lincoln and Fairmont clocking a wind gust of 91 mph.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-09 115021-1754761891794.png"><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/2025-08-09 11-51-49-1754761944926.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>This Weekend</h1>The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has severe outlooks in place through Sunday. Most storms for the rest of tonight and Sunday will be capable of damaging winds, large hail, and a few isolated tornadoes.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/1-1754793819461.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/1-1754793842538.png"><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/New Baron Video 3-1754794074928.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>In addition to the severe threat, a heavy rain and flood risk will be on the table too! The slow movement and intensity of these storms will also create a flood risk. A Flood Watch has been issued from Kansas into Wisconsin. Models are showing several areas for rainfall totals over five inches and flooding could occur. A Moderate risk of flooding has been highlighted through Sunday!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/1-1754794108519.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/1-1754794131578.png">Stay with WeatherNation for the latest updates throughout the next few days on-air and online.

Jesse Kelley

Severe Threat to Impact Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Through the Weekend

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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Tropical activity in the Atlantic has been off to a crawl to start the 2025 season. Before Dexter formed, Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the Atlantic was less than 15% of normal. Dexter more than doubled this stat, but it's still less than 30% of a typical year, even though we may be ahead of schedule when it comes to named storms. That being said, the bulk of seasonal activity is still ahead of us, with 89% of the annual energy occurring after the first week of August.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-09 061906-1754742246037.png"> In short, we've got a lot of season ahead of us, so don't let your guard down!RELATED ARTICLE: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/csu-issues-final-2025-atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast">CSU, NOAA UPDATE Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast</a><h2>Tropical Wave (Central Atlantic) - Invest 96L</h2>This system will be fighting some dry air (SAL) in the short term, which may limit or slow down development. Wind shear will likely limit development as this system moves north, with only a slim chance to gain tropical/subtropical depression status.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-09 061757-1754742191659.png">Models are coming into better agreement about the potential track of Invest 96L, with most pulling the wave around a ridge of high pressure located well east of Bermuda. The weakness in the ridge should steer the system northwest in the next 5 days before it curves northward, likely to the east of Bermuda.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/1-1754793636195.png"><h2>WAVE OF AFRICAN COAST</h2>A vigorous tropical wave has emerged south of the Cabo Verde Islands but it will be fighting the same hostile conditions many waves have so far this season. Dry air will likely limit short term development, but through the middle of thew week conditions look to improve to see this system get organized. This will be one to watch for the Caribbean and possibly the U.S., but potential impacts are still more than 7-10 days out.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-09 061819-1754742205560.png">Models maintain rotation of this system despite the dry air, though it may be more of a struggle than the model below depicts (GFS). The dry air should thin some during the mid-week time frame as the wave moves through the MDR toward the Caribbean.Stay with WeatherNation for the latest tropical updates.

Tropics: Atlantic Waking Up, Still Below Average

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A frontal boundary dipping into the Southwestern U.S. will help concentrate heavy showers and strong thunderstorms through the weekend and into next week. Severe storms will be possible along and east of the Southern Rockies, while flash flooding will present a threat from the Plains into the Four Corners.<h1>Severe Outlooks</h1>As the frontal boundary taps into increasing moisture and warm temperatures, severe storms are likely to organize along and east of the Front Range, with storms tracking into the Plains. Storms already have a history of producing very large hail up to near softball sized hail in Eastern Colorado.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/1-1754794252109.png">A tornado or two will be possible in Colorado, from Denver to the southeast into western Kansas. More large hail will be likely with additional storms.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/1-1754794356653.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/1-1754794450242.png"><h1>Forecast</h1>Afternoons look active the next few days as storms initiate over the mountains before moving east from the late afternoon through the evening. Storms may persist overnight in the Plains, feeding on warm air and gulf moisture.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/New Baron Video 3-1754794520120.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Downpours could be heavy enough to create flash flooding from Arizona to Kansas. Avoid low lying areas if a flash flood warning is issued for your area, or seek higher ground if you're in a flood prone location.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/1-1754794552037.png">

Strong Storms Target the Front Range into the Plains

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Flooding has been a major weather story for the southeast recently. More heavy rain fell across parts of Georgia and Florida. More heavy rain and flooding chances will be possible into the weekend.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-09 074041-1754746854901.png"><h1>Forecast</h1>As the stalled front lingers and a weak area of low pressure remains off the coast, rounds of storms are expected, with the heaviest rain possible in Florida and cities closer to the coastline. Florida remains on the south side of the boundary, so tropical moisture is being pulled in.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/New Baron Video 3-1754794675131.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>This weather pattern will aid in scattered to widespread showers and storms each day through the weekend. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has issued a Slight (level 2 out of 4) for excessive rainfall across parts of the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic. Heavy rainfall is likely to create localized flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/1-1754794716858.png"><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/New Baron Video 3-1754794769704.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Tune into the eastern regional forecast :10 past the hour for more details.

Front Stalls - Downpours Target the Southeast

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Thursday, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/prediction-remains-on-track-for-above-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season">NOAA issued an update</a> to their outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Although their numbers have adjusted down slightly, their predictions continue to foresee an above average season. This comes on the heels of <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2025-08.pdf">Colorado State University releasing its final forecast</a> for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season Wednesday. The forecast team at CSU, led by meteorologist Dr. Phil Klotzbach, kept their predictions the same as July. For August, they are stuck with 16 named storms overall, with eight of those predicted to be hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.&nbsp;It is important to note that both the NOAA and CSU forecasts include the four name storms that have already formed in the Atlantic (Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter). Climatologically, around August 10 the rate at which storms form and grow accelerates quickly through the peak of the season around September 11.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1953109057427939468" src="https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1953109057427939468"></div>The reason why the forecast has not changed much, or has gone down slightly since the April, is the uncertainty across the tropics. While sea surface temperatures in both the Atlantic and Pacific are still warm, and this tends to support storm formation, upper-level winds over the Caribbean have been unusually hostile during June and July. This atmospheric setup typically suppresses hurricane development in the Atlantic basin.&nbsp;<blockquote>“Many of the factors we identified ahead of the season are still at play, and conditions are largely tracking along with our May predictions,” said Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction, part of the National Weather Service.&nbsp;</blockquote>RELATED ARTICLE: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/an-area-to-monitor-in-the-atlantic">Atlantic Waking Up, Eastern Pacific Staying Active</a><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-06 110050-1754499664701.png">The driving factor behind the above-average forecast remains the exceptionally warm waters across the eastern and central Atlantic Basin. Combined with a neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a state that neither strongly inhibits nor enhances storm activity, these conditions could still favor a more active season.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-06 105940-1754499600405.png">Yet, forecasters are closely watching high levels of wind shear in the Caribbean, a phenomenon involving shifts in wind direction and speed with height. This shear is known to disrupt storm development. &nbsp;CSU also warns that the U.S. coastline faces an above-average risk of at least one major hurricane making landfall this season, a reminder that even in uncertain years, coastal residents should remain vigilant.&nbsp;<blockquote>"No two storms are alike. Every storm presents unique, life-threatening hazards that can impact people in both coastal and inland communities. Have a plan in place, and know the actions you should take before, during and after the wide range of hazards that the hurricane season can bring.”&nbsp;said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham.</blockquote><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-06 110039-1754499698410.png">With the arrival of August, the Atlantic hurricane season is entering its most active stretch, which typically peaks around September 10. The pattern is starting to get more active in the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Dexter is still making waves (literally) in the Atlantic, and there are two additional areas to watch in the central Atlantic and off the Southeast coast.&nbsp;The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs through November 30, leaving several more months of potential activity ahead.&nbsp;Tune into WeatherNation for the latest Tropical updates.

CSU, NOAA UPDATE Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

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Another intense night of severe storms ripped through portions of the Upper-Midwest from Thursday night into Friday morning. Multiple bowing segments congealed into a large complex/squall line, which produced wind damage for over 300 miles across the states of Montana, North Dakota, and Minnesota. Thousands of households lost power while several structures have reported damage. Will this be classified as a derecho? According to NWS Grand Forks, Thursday's night storm was not classified as a derecho. Listen why.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/SOT_TRT.34_(audio fixed)EXPLAINING WHY THE STORMS DIDN'T MEET DERECHO CRITERIA_MS_E080825_1-1754708943137.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video> Again, NWS Grand Forks believes the factors of not enough higher end wind gusts, the duration of the wind event, and the coverage area was enough not to deem this event as a derecho. However, we can still learn more on what is a derecho! A big severe strength wind storm to say the least, but the Storm Prediction Center has a full definition including multiple criteria that have to be met.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-08 061237-1754655858161.png">It certainly appears this system will meet the spatial requirements for a derecho as damaging wind reports (58+ mph) stretch for over 300 miles.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-08 061159-1754655182565.png">Peak gusts were well over 75 mph, with a gust at Gran Forks Air Force Base measured at 91 mph!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-08 061206-1754655189603.png">This squall line produced several 75+ mph gusts, which appear to be well separated as well. This also appears to meet the requirement for a derecho.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-08 061215-1754655197446.png">While it appears this system has met the basic 3 requirements for a derecho, other criteria (top of the page) have to be met as well. In addition, wind reports and reports of damage will have to be verified as accurate.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-08 061231-1754655205131.png">Derechos most often occur from the late spring through the summer, with a typical drop off in August.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-08 061246-1754655219174.png">

Possible Derecho Hit the Upper-Midwest Friday Morning

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The Eastern and Central Pacific have had an interesting start to the season, with plenty of named storms (11 combined). This is above the average of 7, but the energy generated by these systems is only about 80% of what's typical for this time of year. Long story short, this region has had many systems, but they've been on the weaker side. That trend has continued this week with Henriette and Ivo which could bring minor impacts to nearby landmasses.<h1>Henriette</h1>On Friday, Henriette was downgraded to a remnant low as it continues to struggle in the Pacific. However, it is forecast to miss Hawaii and the strengthen again back to a tropical storm by next week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/1-1754708604519.png"><h1>IVO</h1>Ivo is expected to remain a tropical storm as it moves away from Cabo San Lucas and Mexico. It should weaken by early next week to a depression.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/1-1754708710767.png"><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/floater.php?stormid=EP092025"> </a>Now that we have Ivo, up next on the list in the Pacific will be Juliette.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/tropical ivvo-1754519175244.png">We're far from the end of the Pacific Hurricane Season, with a secondary peak occurring later in September.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-05 104202-1754412196354.png">

Henriette & Ivo Spinning in the Pacific

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Significant flash flooding greatly impacted NYC and the tri-state area Friday, September 29. There were delays, cancellations and closures at major airports, on highways and city streets as well as the subway system. Governor Hochul issued a state of emergency for New York City, Long Island and the Hudson River Valley Friday in anticipation of major impacts from the flooding.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1707787329195348049" src="https://twitter.com/WeatherNation/status/1707787329195348049"></div>Heavy rain began late Thursday around the Tri-State and in southern New England, with rain totals already surpassing 3" in some areas by sunrise. Additional rain totals of 3-5" then fell across the soaked region, presenting a significant threat of urban flooding and flash flooding. JFK Airport ended up with 8.64" of rain Friday, making it the rainiest day since 1948. Additionally, that broke a daily rainfall record and the September rainfall record.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/09/Screenshot 2023-09-29 161615-1696025844016.jpg">Although rain has moved out of the area for the last 24 hours or so, some parts of the city still have areas of standing water that have been slow to drain and recede. While dry conditions will continue across the Northeast this week, coastal flooding is possible as the full moon and moon near perigee will lead to king tides through Monday. Stay with WeatherNation for the latest in the aftermath of the flooding in the NYC metro.

Wettest Day in 75 Years for Parts of New York City

Severe Threat to Impact Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Through the Weekend

A robust upper-level trough swept through the

Tropics: Atlantic Waking Up, Still Below Average

Tropical activity in the Atlantic has been of

Strong Storms Target the Front Range into the Plains

A frontal boundary dipping into the Southwest

Front Stalls - Downpours Target the Southeast

Flooding has been a major weather story for t

CSU, NOAA UPDATE Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

Thursday, NOAA issued an update to their outl

Possible Derecho Hit the Upper-Midwest Friday Morning

Another intense night of severe storms ripped

Henriette & Ivo Spinning in the Pacific

The Eastern and Central Pacific have had an i