La Niña Likely to Return for Hurricane Season

news image
Special Stories
10 Feb 2024 11:45 PM

Hurricane season is a little over 100 days away, but there are signals that the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season could be a strong one. New guidance from the Climate Prediction Center [CPC] on February 7th, indicated high confidence in a shift back to La Niña by the peak of Hurricane Season in August and September. Right now, we are in an El Nino pattern (which only started in the Spring of 2023) so a quick shift is not unheard of, but unusual.

Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University highlighted that the change to La Niña by the middle of the Hurricane Season could lead to multiple waves of energy moving off the coast of Africa. Our most recent La Niña Hurricane seasons were 2020, 2021 and 2022. All three were above average for hurricane activity.

The reason we typically see elevated hurricane activity in the Atlantic tropics during La Niña events is because the temperature profiles and interactions between the ocean surface and atmosphere lead to less shear over the tropical Atlantic ocean. Shear rips apart hurricanes, so the less of it, generally the better the environment is for storms to develop and be sustained.

The other factor in hurricane development and sustainment is ocean temperatures. Right now, in early February sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic (between the Caribbean and Africa) are as warm as they would be on June 7th. Below is a post shared by a hurricane and ocean researcher at the University of Miami highlighting sea surface temperatures of about 2.5°F above average.

Hurricane season is still a ways away and things can change, and he overall pattern is only guidance, not a forecast. Stay with WeatherNation for the latest as the tropical season draws nearer.

All Weather News
More
Next Wave in the Atlantic to Watch

Next Wave in the Atlantic to Watch

As the Atlantic hurricane season enters its f

17 Oct 2025 10:30 AM
Strong Fall Front Fires Up Severe Chances This Weekend

Strong Fall Front Fires Up Severe Chances This Weekend

October has been relatively quiet in terms of

17 Oct 2025 10:00 AM
Wet Pattern for the NW Continues

Wet Pattern for the NW Continues

A wet pattern is shaping up for the Northwest

17 Oct 2025 9:50 AM
Ridge Riding Thunderstorms in the Western Plains

Ridge Riding Thunderstorms in the Western Plains

A ridge of high pressure has been responsible

17 Oct 2025 3:00 AM
Sierra to the Rockies: Flooding Rain & Heavy Snow

Sierra to the Rockies: Flooding Rain & Heavy Snow

As of Wednesday, all evacuation orders have b

15 Oct 2025 1:45 PM
October Nor'easter Wrapping Up For the Atlantic

October Nor'easter Wrapping Up For the Atlantic

A low-pressure system that has tracked up the

14 Oct 2025 1:25 PM
Upgraded North Dakota Tornado Ends EF-5 Drought

Upgraded North Dakota Tornado Ends EF-5 Drought

The National Weather Service in Grand Forks,

12 Oct 2025 7:30 AM