La Niña Likely to Return for Hurricane Season

news image
Special Stories
10 Feb 2024 11:45 PM

Hurricane season is a little over 100 days away, but there are signals that the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season could be a strong one. New guidance from the Climate Prediction Center [CPC] on February 7th, indicated high confidence in a shift back to La Niña by the peak of Hurricane Season in August and September. Right now, we are in an El Nino pattern (which only started in the Spring of 2023) so a quick shift is not unheard of, but unusual.

Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University highlighted that the change to La Niña by the middle of the Hurricane Season could lead to multiple waves of energy moving off the coast of Africa. Our most recent La Niña Hurricane seasons were 2020, 2021 and 2022. All three were above average for hurricane activity.

The reason we typically see elevated hurricane activity in the Atlantic tropics during La Niña events is because the temperature profiles and interactions between the ocean surface and atmosphere lead to less shear over the tropical Atlantic ocean. Shear rips apart hurricanes, so the less of it, generally the better the environment is for storms to develop and be sustained.

The other factor in hurricane development and sustainment is ocean temperatures. Right now, in early February sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic (between the Caribbean and Africa) are as warm as they would be on June 7th. Below is a post shared by a hurricane and ocean researcher at the University of Miami highlighting sea surface temperatures of about 2.5°F above average.

Hurricane season is still a ways away and things can change, and he overall pattern is only guidance, not a forecast. Stay with WeatherNation for the latest as the tropical season draws nearer.

All Weather News
More
October Nor'easter Moves Up the Atlantic Coast with Wind & Storms

October Nor'easter Moves Up the Atlantic Coast with Wind & Storms

An area of low pressure is intensifying as it

12 Oct 2025 10:00 PM
Active Weather Returns to California By Monday

Active Weather Returns to California By Monday

It's been months since meaningful snow fell o

12 Oct 2025 9:40 PM
Increasing Flood Threat Across the Southwest With Tropical Influence

Increasing Flood Threat Across the Southwest With Tropical Influence

Flash flooding will continue to be possible i

12 Oct 2025 8:20 PM
Atlantic Tropics: Tropical Waves Could Develop Next Week

Atlantic Tropics: Tropical Waves Could Develop Next Week

The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season has thus f

12 Oct 2025 2:00 PM
La Niña Advisory Issued, Potential Impacts to Winter Precip & Springtime Tornadoes

La Niña Advisory Issued, Potential Impacts to Winter Precip & Springtime Tornadoes

La Niña was observed in September, leading to

12 Oct 2025 8:00 AM
Upgraded North Dakota Tornado Ends EF-5 Drought

Upgraded North Dakota Tornado Ends EF-5 Drought

The National Weather Service in Grand Forks,

12 Oct 2025 7:30 AM
Eastern Pacific: Raymond Targets Baja California, Desert Southwest with Downpours

Eastern Pacific: Raymond Targets Baja California, Desert Southwest with Downpours

The Eastern Pacific has had a fairly average

11 Oct 2025 1:35 AM