WeatherNation Meteorologists

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<p>Isaias ended the late-season streak of no hurricanes in the Atlantic, but how will the rest of the season shape up? Record-breaking wind shear is likely to continue to limit most tropical systems in the Atlantic, but a few more storms are still possible.</p><h3><strong>Tropical Storm Vance</strong></h3><p>Tropical Storm Vance has formed in the Eastern Pacific, south of Mexico. It is expected to strengthen to a major hurricane over open waters.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/WEB 2-1792678888627.png"></p><p>There is another area of tropical interest brewing west of the Hawaiian Islands. Right now it has a low chance of tropical development in the next 7 days.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/xxxvvvv-1792634313317.png"></p><h1><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">El Nino Fueling Pacific Activity</span></strong></h1><p>The Eastern Pacific has set a new record for the most energetic season since record-keeping began. The ACE has surpassed 318, which was the previous record set in 2018.</p><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">The surge in tropical activity comes as El Nino continues to strengthen across the equatorial Pacific. El Nino is characterized by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures across portions of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Those unusually warm waters can influence weather patterns around the globe while also creating an environment that can favor tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific.</span></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-28 194202-1790646127358.png"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">This year’s El Nino has already strengthened considerably, and forecasts indicate it could become exceptionally strong later this year.</span></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-12 063433-1789216512410.png"></p>

Tracey Anthony

Tropical Storm Vance Forms In The Pacific

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<p style="margin: 0in; margin-bottom: .0001pt;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; color: #454545;">Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a></span></p>

Rob Bradley

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<p>A strong trough of low pressure is moving onshore across the Southwest, bringing heavy rain and severe storms to the region. Flooding will continue to pose a major threat across the Four Corners, while severe storms are possible as well. In Arizona, there is an elevated threat for hail and tornadoes. Hail up to the size of hen eggs and golf balls fell in the Grand Canyon State on Wednesday.</p><h2>FORECAST TIMING</h2><p>As the low moves onshore today, precipitation will gradually decrease in intensity and coverage around California. Snow will continue to fall over the Sierra and high elevations. Heavy showers and thunderstorms will remain active throughout the day in the Four Corners, where several severe storm warnings are expected through the afternoon and evening, though the morning hours will be active as well! Friday and Saturday will see the snow head north towards Idaho and Montana, while heavy rain continues to fall in New Mexico, Colorado, and Texas.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/2026-10-22 07-10-07-1792674985996.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p></p><h2>SEVERE STORMS</h2><p>A <strong>marginal to slight </strong>risk for severe weather is in effect through Thursday. The slight risk includes a higher chance for damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-22 070755-1792674490269.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-22 070802-1792674496808.png"></p><h2>EXCESSIVE RAINFALL &amp; SNOW</h2><p>The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has a <strong>slight</strong> to <strong>moderate</strong> risk for heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of the Southwest Wednesday and Thursday.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/2026-10-22 07-18-40-1792675286613.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>Precipitation should really get going on Wednesday, especially in Central and Southern California. Throughout the week, the precipitation will slide eastward into the Four Corners. Thankfully, these alerts die off by Friday.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-22 072006-1792675260770.png">This event could bring some snowfall to the Sierra Nevada. This also means some decent totals for the Rockies as well! Our in-house models suggest some isolated spots getting up to a foot by Friday!</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-21 083620-1792593389713.png">For all the latest details, tune into the West Regional forecast every hour, at :50 past the hour.</p>

Flooding & Severe Storms Target the Southwest

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Originally born in Spokane, Washington,  Jackie's Dad was in the Air Force which led her to a life of travel. She has lived in Wichita, Okinawa, Japan, Baltimore, New Jersey, Indiana and South Carolina.  After graduating from Kadena High School, in Okinawa Japan, she got a full basketball scholarship to Coppin State College. On the court she was a 4-year starter and reached over 1000 points in her basketball career. She was also named Athlete of the Year for the whole university in 2002. Off the court, she earned a degree in Broadcast Production/English.

After college, she landed a job as a radio personality. Jackie went on to have a successful career for 12 years working at KXLY broadcast center. While on the radio, she decided to change career. Jackie went back to school, graduating from the Mississippi State Meteorology Broadcast Program. From snow, to tornadoes, to hurricanes, she has had experience forecasting all these events.

Jackie Brown

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<h3>WHAT TO EXPECT</h3><p>A ridge of high pressure will build this week, keeping temperatures above average across the central U.S. Temperatures across the south will run 5°-10° above average, but in the northern Plains and Midwest, 10°- 20° above average! This will make for some warm weather for any fall activities you have planned.</p><h3>NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST:</h3><p>Temperatures will be quite warm in this part of the country over the next few days. Most cities will see highs in the upper 60s and 70s! Rapid City normally averages 58°, but on Thursday it will reach 81° and even warmer on Friday!</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/pic6-1792617394670.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/pic5-1792617499188.png">As we look ahead through the end of October, there is high confidence that much of the country will remain above average. That looks to include and Trick or Treaters if the pattern holds up!</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/pic4-1792617661505.png"></p>

Warmer Than Average: Above-Normal Temperatures Across the Central U.S. This Week

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<h1>SETUP</h1><p>An upper-level low broke off from the flow aloft earlier this week, and that same low was being monitored by the National Hurricane Center for Tropical development as early as Wednesday morning. Now a subtropical storm named Josephine has formed.</p><h1>JOSEPHINE FORECAST</h1><p>Josephine formed Wednesday afternoon as a subtropical storm. That means this storm is not forming and churning because of warm sea surface temperatures. Subtropical means this storm is using warm water, but it also has cold air aloft that it's using to grow and increase in intensity. A way of noticing a subtropical storm is no well-defined eyewall.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/fjsjsssss-1792633320368.png"></p><h3>FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS</h3><p>Wave heights between 10-20 feet will be possible at times, making for dangerous conditions.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/fjajjffff-1792633390267.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p></p><h1>IMPACTS</h1><p>High winds with Josephine will wear down many beaches along the eastern seaboard. What's of most concern are the beaches in North Carolina, which stick out farthest, and places like Virginia, which will have to endure days of breezy winds agitating the seas. Waves of 10-15 feet can be expected, which will help push a few feet of seawater onshore into normally dry stretches of the coast.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-20 050623-1792494397482.png"></p><p>Wind gusts could reach 40-50 mph at times throughout the week as well. The questions about rainfall hinge on the location of the low. At this time, only areas along the coast could get a few showers, with the best chance looking like Wednesday.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-21 054357-1792583048244.png">More updates on this evolving setup will be coming up all day and night on WeatherNation.</p><h1></h1>

Sub-Tropical Josephine Becomes Tenth Atlantic Named Storm

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Taban Sharifi grew up in Southern California between Los Angeles and San Diego. She is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) with the American Meteorological Society (AMS). She has a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Environmental Sciences with a minor in Environmental Systems and Society from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Go Bruins! While in school, Taban was a meteorology intern with NBC LA. There she helped forecast daily weather for the greater Los Angeles region and created a playbook to deploy weather sensors for NBC owned-and-operated stations across the country. Her first on-air job took her to San Angelo, Texas, where she was a morning meteorologist and co-anchor. Working in West Texas gave her knowledge and experience covering severe storms. From there, she moved to Palm Springs, California. People think forecasting in California is sunshine all the time, but with temperatures in the 120’s, wildfires, damaging winds, floodings, and earthquakes, the forecasting kept her very busy! She also worked there as a general assignment reporter and told community stories. Taban is excited for the challenge and opportunity to forecast nationally with WeatherNation. She also looks forward to exploring all that Colorado has to offer!

Taban Sharifi

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<p>Santa Ana winds helped several fires grow quickly on Thursday and Friday around Southern California, forcing a closure on I-5 near Camp Pendleton. Unfortunately, more fires grew on Friday, one of which was the Norte Fire near San Juan Capistrano. Evacuation orders remain for the Norte Fire and the Bryson Fire. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.fire.ca.gov/"><strong><u>Check on the latest status with CalFire</u></strong></a>. Santa Ana winds are expected to continue into Saturday before backing off into Sunday. Warm and dry conditions are also increasing the fire danger. Power is being shut off to prevent additional fires from getting started, primarily in areas around northern Los Angeles into the Simi Valley and surrounding mountain communities. Weather conditions will help in containment efforts moving forward.</p><p><strong>Bryson Fire: </strong>146 acres, 74% contained. This fire began in Los Angeles County near Encinal Canyon Rd. in Malibu on Thursday, Oct. 15.</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2110928718306615510" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2110928718306615510"></div><p><strong>Norte Fire: </strong>570 acres, 60% contained. The Norte fire began in Orange County, right along the border between San Juan Capistrano and San Clemente. This fire started on Friday, October 16th. Orange County fire officials say six homes have been damaged or destroyed. The burn scar remains an active fire hazard area and is closed until further notice.</p><p></p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2111192490997125311" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2111192490997125311"></div><p><strong>Henderson Fire: </strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">3,260 acres, 85% contained. This was the largest of the fires that broke out. The Henderson fire began on Thursday afternoon near Camp Pendleton. The fire forced closures of north and southbound lanes of I-5 as it grew rapidly. All evacuation orders are now lifted.</span></p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2111479851412832613" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2111479851412832613"></div><h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 183715-1792370245286.png">Fire Outlook</h1><p>There is a <strong>Elevated</strong> risk for fire danger across portions of Northern California, Nevada, and Southeastern Oregon on Monday. A strong trough is dropping down the coast today, kicking up the winds in these locations.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-19 073620-1792417058638.png">Keep checking with WeatherNation for more updates on the California wildfires.</p>

Several Fires Break Out in SoCal Last Week Amid Santa Ana Wind Event

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<p>Across portions of the Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic, temperatures will be cool to start your Monday morning. There are widespread frost and freeze alerts for temperatures into the 30s.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 185729-1792371454398.png">Ridge of high pressure builds back in by Wednesday, bringing temperatures back above average across the central U.S.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 185752-1792371502912.png">Temperatures start to climb on Wednesday and will continue to stay warm through the work week.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 185829-1792371519268.png">It's not just the south, the north will climb well above normal too. Minneapolis will reach the 70s when temperatures should be under 60 by now.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 185834-1792371541054.png">The longer-range outlook holds on to a higher confidence that temperatures will remain above normal through the end of October across a large portion of the country.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 190004-1792371633934.png">Tune into WeatherNation :10 past the hour for more on your eastern regional forecast.</p>

Kevin Schneider

Another Cold Morning Before Things Warm Back Up

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<p></p><h1>Severe Storm Potential</h1><p>Severe risk is decreasing into Saturday morning. Some lingering storms still could produce some heavy rain and strong winds as the cold front departs the region.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 4-1792198726852.png"></p><h1>Timing</h1><p>You can see the lingering storms through the first half of Saturday into the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast. Some rain could be heavy enough to impact travel and produce some isolated flash flooding.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/FORECAST-1792198978545.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p></p><h1>Cooler Air</h1><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 4-1792198992928.png"></p><p>Temperatures will drop quickly behind the front, dropping into the 40s for highs this weekend parts of the Northeast and Great Lakes!</p><p></p>

Severe Risk Diminishing Saturday Morning for the Northeast

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The wait is finally over. After 106 straight days with no measurable rainfall in Tucson, Arizona the city has officially picked up at least a tenth of an inch. Ahhhh, refreshing!

<img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-92665" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/06/Capture2-10-728x408.jpg" alt="" width="728" height="408" />

A preliminary rainfall report for Tucson showed 0.10" of rainfall as of 9 p.m. Friday. It was still raining around the city at the time of this article, so that daily rainfall report will likely be just a tad higher. Nonetheless, it's the first measurable rainfall since the city received 0.20" on February 28 this year!

https://twitter.com/NWSTucson/status/1007787766271397889

While a little technical, yes; the image above shows the weather balloon launch from Friday evening in Tucson. Meteorologists noted the highest precipitable water value for June 15! Commonly referred to as Pwat, it's a measurement of the amount of moisture in the atmosphere. This specific moisture Friday was coming in from the tropical remnants of "Bud."

<img class="size-large wp-image-92666" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/06/Capture3-11-728x408.jpg" alt="" width="728" height="408" /> These are 24-hour rainfall reports ending Friday evening, June 15.

The remnant moisture from Post-Tropical-Cyclone Bud will stir up additional rain showers and thunderstorms across the Southwest this weekend.

<a href="https://media.weathernationtv.com/news/remnants-hurricane-bud-jumpstart-southwest-monsoon-season/"><em><strong>Related Story: Remnants of Hurricane Bud to Jumpstart Southwest Monsoon Season </strong></em></a>

Nearby Phoenix also had a milestone Friday, reaching a dew point temperature (also a measure of moisture) of 60 degrees!

https://twitter.com/SteveGlazier/status/1007753810171723776

The tropical moisture is returning at a time that usually signifies the beginning of the monsoon season in the Southwest U.S. When the Southwest heats up continuously and rises into the 100's daily, an onshore wind begins to develop from the nearby, cooler Pacific and Gulf of Mexico. This helps to draw in moisture and bring rain more often. Take a look at the monthly rainfall summary for Tucson.

<img class="size-large wp-image-92667" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/06/Capture4-8-728x408.jpg" alt="" width="728" height="408" /> Average monthly precipitation for Tucson, AZ

<a href="https://media.weathernationtv.com/news/prepared-monsoon-season/"><strong><em>Related Article: Are You Ready For Monsoon Season?</em></strong></a>

For WeatherNation, Meteorologist Steve Glazier

Tucson, Arizona Ends 100+ Day Dry Stretch

Tropical Storm Vance Forms In The Pacific

Isaias ended the late-season streak of no hur

Flooding & Severe Storms Target the Southwest

A strong trough of low pressure is moving ons

Warmer Than Average: Above-Normal Temperatures Across the Central U.S. This Week

WHAT TO EXPECTA ridge of high pressure will b

Sub-Tropical Josephine Becomes Tenth Atlantic Named Storm

SETUPAn upper-level low broke off from the fl

Several Fires Break Out in SoCal Last Week Amid Santa Ana Wind Event

Santa Ana winds helped several fires grow qui

Another Cold Morning Before Things Warm Back Up

Across portions of the Ohio Valley through th

Severe Risk Diminishing Saturday Morning for the Northeast

Severe Storm PotentialSevere risk is decreasi